Wrexham v Derby Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Oliver Shaw
Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.
There’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding this game, as the Championship’s worst defence hosts the league’s worst attack. I see an exciting game, with the potential for a few goals.
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- Wrexham v Derby
- English Championship
- 12:30
Derby have created the fewest xG in the league (4.5), despite scoring eight times.
Wrexham have conceded 12 goals, alongside an even worse 15xGA - the most in the division.
These sides have met only once since the 80s, a 3-1 Derby FA Cup win in 2007.
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🔴 Wrexham Resilient, If Not Always Convincing
It hasn’t been the easiest of starts to life in the Championship for Wrexham, who have picked up seven points from their opening six games.
That tally leaves them in 16th place, having bagged 11 goals and shipped 12 at the other end, although the xG numbers suggest the chances they’ve created would typically result in only nine scored, and 15 conceded.
They come into this clash in excellent form, having recorded wins in four of their last five across all competitions. In the league, that run included victories against Millwall and Norwich, alongside a defeat at the hands of QPR.
Despite the positive results, Wrexham created fewer xG than their opponents in both of those league wins, totalling 1.83, compared to the 4.3 they allowed their opposition.
That said, the scoreline against Reading in the cup last time out was a fairer reflection of a dominant Wrexham display, as they comfortably dispatched The Royals 2-0.
⚪ Derby Quickly Dragged Into Relegation Chatter
There are very few positives to extract from what can only be described as a dismal start to the season for Derby. They’ve managed to pick up five points, which could be worse, but still leaves them in the drop zone.
John Eustace’s men have created just 4.5xG - the fewest of any side in the league, although they have been clinical when dealing with those opportunities, netting eight times. This renders them the league’s second biggest overperformers in front of goal.
They slumped to a dull 1-0 defeat at home to Preston last time round, with neither side generating many chances.
The weekend before, Derby managed to snatch a 1-0 win away at West Brom, with Andreas Weimann’s late goal enough to seal the three points. It was very much a smash and grab, in fact, Derby managed only four shots all game.
📊 Wrexham v Derby H2H
Meetings between these sides are far from commonplace; in fact, they’ve come head-to-head only once since the 80s.
Even then, you have to go as far back as 2007, when Derby saw off Wrexham in a 3-1 FA Cup victory.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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