Greece have surprised everyone in this group so far, their opening day victory over Serbia wasn’t anything too eye-catching but their 1-0 win over Germany last time out did raise a few eyebrows as they became the first team to beat Jurgen Klopp’s Germany side.

Greece have real attacking talent and can cause Netherlands issues in transition, with Xavi’s side giving up a lot of space in those moments across their opening few matches - seeing BTTS in both of their games against Germany and Serbia, but managing to avoid defeat.

Greece also showed how they can do quite a lot with not much of the ball, generating an xG of 0.72 despite only having 24% of the ball in Germany.

Their win over Serbia was a lot more impressive when looking at the underlying numbers, Ivan Jovanovic’s side registered an xG of 2.52 from 26 shots in that clash.

I do think this Netherlands side will concede quite a few goals under Xavi due to the way they set up, but also they are missing a few crucial players to injury in Jan Paul van Hecke and Cody Gakpo, levelling the playing field slightly.

Denmark have scored two or more goals in their last nine competitive games in a row.

Portugal conceded in three of five at the World Cup, including to DR Congo, and they conceded 2.52 xG in their 2-1 win at Norway last time out.

Given Denmark’s recent scoring record and that Norway generated over 1 xG in each half against them in their last match, there’s plenty to suggest that the Danes get on the scoresheet even though Portugal are odds-on favourites.

Portugal are the Nations League holders and they beat Denmark 5-2 when the sides last met, but they’re unlikely to get it done without conceding in Copenhagen.

Israel have been very poor defensively so far in this international break, conceding three goals in both of their games.

They competed admirably in a 3-1 loss in Austria first up, having a man sent off with the score 1-1 just before the hour mark, before folding at home to lose 3-0 to Republic of Ireland.

They’ve allowed their opposition 4.5 xG across the two games and look unlikely to keep a clean sheet against a promising Kosovan side.

Kosovo were dominant in beating Ireland 1-0 to begin the break and were competitive in a 3-1 defeat in Austria.

They lost in the play-offs for the World Cup, to Turkey, and only lost one game in a group with Switzerland, Slovenia and Sweden.

The last time they played Israel away, though today’s encounter is in Hungary, it finished 1-1, with this bet coming in before the hour mark.

Greece have surprised everyone in this group so far, their opening day victory over Serbia wasn’t anything too eye-catching but their 1-0 win over Germany last time out did raise a few eyebrows as they became the first team to beat Jurgen Klopp’s Germany side.

Greece have real attacking talent and can cause Netherlands issues in transition, with Xavi’s side giving up a lot of space in those moments across their opening few matches - seeing BTTS in both of their games against Germany and Serbia, but managing to avoid defeat.

Greece also showed how they can do quite a lot with not much of the ball, generating an xG of 0.72 despite only having 24% of the ball in Germany.

Their win over Serbia was a lot more impressive when looking at the underlying numbers, Ivan Jovanovic’s side registered an xG of 2.52 from 26 shots in that clash.

I do think this Netherlands side will concede quite a few goals under Xavi due to the way they set up, but also they are missing a few crucial players to injury in Jan Paul van Hecke and Cody Gakpo, levelling the playing field slightly.

There’s been chaos in the Portugal camp over the last few days with Cristiano Ronaldo having a public fallout with new coach Jorge Jesus after he was left on the bench for Portugal’s win over Norway last time out.

Ronaldo has since left the camp and left an uneasy discourse behind him despite Portugal actually starting their Nations League campaign quite well with two wins from their two games against Wales and Norway with Joao Felix looking much more like the player we expected him to develop into at Benfica.

Denmark have scored 2+ goals in both of their Nations League games so far, winning 2-0 against Wales last time out from an xG of 1.39 and 20 shots. I think the issues away from the pitch will affect Portugal here, they conceded an xG of 2.52 against Norway as the away side last time out and also allowed 36 touches in their penalty area.

It’s been a pretty rough start to this Nations League campaign for Craig Bellamy’s side, but this is exactly the type of challenge that Bellamy has been crying out for with Wales featuring in a Nations League A group for the very first time.

They’re probably not going to get a better opportunity to score in this group than this clash, with Wales facing off against a Norway side who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Norway usually find a way to outscore this level of opponent, and their backline is the weakest part of their squad. It’ll also be interesting to see if Norway switch out their keeper for this game after Nyland made a few alarming errors against Portugal, including basically gifting Gonçalo Ramos what proved to be the winning goal.

15 of Wales’ 21 goals during World Cup qualifying came in front of their own fans, showing how home advantage could play a part here with it being Wales’ first home game in the group and crucially Norway’s first away game of the group.

This is a massive game for Ireland against the best side in the group on paper, with Austria winning both of their games in the group so far - seeing 4+ goals in both of their games as they beat Israel and Kosovo 3-1 to take control of this Nations League B group.

It’s quite clear that Austria will probably top this group from this position, but Ireland will see this as an opportunity to further their chances of securing second place with Kosovo and Israel not looking particularly convincing across their opening games so far. 

Ireland scored 3+ goals inside 25 minutes against Israel last time out, which was enough to secure the victory in the behind closed doors meeting in Hungary. They conceded an xG of 2.74 in their defeat to Kosovo in their opening game, so I worry a little for their backline in this one as Austria are even better in forward areas and could cover this line on their own.