This selection landed in Serbia’s opening game of their Nations League campaign as they gave up a one goal lead to lose 2-1 to Greece, thanks to a strike in the 95th minute by Douvikas.

Greece deserved that victory, they dominated the underlying numbers and had 26 shots in total - seeing nine of these efforts find the target. They did, however, allow Serbia to generate an xG of 1.42 from nine shots which underlines the attacking threat they could pose here.

I was impressed with Xavi’s Netherlands side last time out as they struck in the final stages to earn a point against Germany. They should have collected all three points really, having registered an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots.

Xavi’s teams are always going to concede chances due to how positive he wants his sides to be. I think they give up chances against this Serbia side, but still have enough quality to come out on top.

Norway get the nod from me here, and I'm still not sold on the balance of this Portugal team despite the managerial change. Norway have proven extremely difficult to overcome on home soil over the past 12 months, as both Italy and Denmark have found out recently.

That said, for all their strength at home, Norway have a habit of conceding. They failed to keep a single clean sheet at the World Cup and shipped two goals against Denmark last time out at the start of their Nations League campaign.

Portugal don't look much better at the back either. They gave up an xG of 5.80 across five World Cup matches and only shut out Colombia and Uzbekistan - with Colombia particularly unfortunate not to score, racking up an xG of 1.70 from 24 attempts.

Wales lost 1-0 to Portugal last time out, but missed a golden chance to get on the scoresheet in that game with their five shots returning an xG of 0.85.

I really like the approach that Craig Bellamy has taken to this role, he wants Wales to be a side that doesn’t just set up to keep sides out and he will look at Denmark as the weakest of the other opponents Wales have to take on.

However, the Danes are likely to have a similar mindset given that this is the easiest of their assignments on paper so I expect both sides to target this game as a near must win for any chance of success in this group.

Denmark saw this selection land in their opening game against Norway, and were quite unlucky to lose 3-2 with both sides posting similar underlying numbers. They didn’t lose a game at home during World Cup qualifying, and I think they will be able to come out on top but not without Wales getting on the scoresheet. 

These sides have both struggled in the early weeks of the season, with De Graafschap only winning one of their opening seven matches while Den Bosch have won just two of their opening set of fixtures.

Despite the struggles of the home side, they have still been able to find the back of the net in recent weeks with this selection landing in four of their last five matches - with the exception of a 5-0 thrashing by Heracles, who sit top of the league having won six of their seven matches.

What is also notable for this selection is that both sides have only seen one of their opening seven matches finish level. Both backlines are really vulnerable too, only two sides in the Eerste Divisie have conceded more goals than De Graafschap so far (20), while Den Bosch have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches.

Netherlands snatched an equaliser in the final minute against Germany last time out in Xavi’s first game in charge.

It may look lucky on paper, but I was impressed with what I saw from Xavi’s men who dominated the underlying numbers and probably should have come away with all three points.

Netherlands recorded an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots with 10 of these finding the target. They also had 43 touches in the opposition box, won the corner count 12-1 and had marginally more possession than Jurgen Klopp’s side.

Serbia gave up a 1-0 lead against Greece last time out, losing 2-1 thanks to a last minute strike from Como forward Douvikas. The Greeks managed to register an xG of 2.51 from 26 shots as the away side, I expect Netherlands to produce similar numbers and score at least twice.

I was impressed that Wales managed to keep Portugal to just the one goal on Thursday night, conceding an xG of 1.93 from 23 shots as Craig Bellamy fielded a depleted side that notably was missing Harry Wilson.

Denmark did quite well against Norway last time out and were unlucky to lose the game in the final quarter having matched Norway for shots (13) and shots on target (7) with both sides also having a similar xG (1.41-1.09).

Denmark will see this as the easiest game in their group. That’s not being disrespectful to Wales, but Portugal and Norway are both comfortably better sides - so Denmark should see this as a game they have to win if they want to be competitive in this group, particularly at home.

It is really notable that Wales are missing Harry Wilson at the moment, he was their top scorer during qualifying with five goals and Wales lack something extra in the final third when he doesn’t play.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.

I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

This selection landed in Serbia’s opening game of their Nations League campaign as they gave up a one goal lead to lose 2-1 to Greece, thanks to a strike in the 95th minute by Douvikas.

Greece deserved that victory, they dominated the underlying numbers and had 26 shots in total - seeing nine of these efforts find the target.

They did, however, allow Serbia to generate an xG of 1.42 from nine shots which underlines the attacking threat they could pose here.

I was impressed with Xavi’s Netherlands side last time out as they struck in the final stages to earn a point against Germany.

They should have collected all three points really, having registered an xG of 3.18 from 22 shots.

Xavi’s teams are always going to concede chances due to how positive he wants his sides to be.

I think they give up chances against this Serbia side, but still have enough quality to come out on top.

These sides have both struggled in the early weeks of the season, with De Graafschap only winning one of their opening seven matches while Den Bosch have won just two of their opening set of fixtures.

Despite the struggles of the home side, they have still been able to find the back of the net in recent weeks with this selection landing in four of their last five matches - with the exception of a 5-0 thrashing by Heracles, who sit top of the league having won six of their seven matches.

Both backlines are really vulnerable too, only two sides in the Eerste Divisie have conceded more goals than De Graafschap so far (20), while Den Bosch have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their matches.

I really like the approach that Craig Bellamy has taken to this role, he wants Wales to be a side that doesn’t just set up to keep sides out and he will look at Denmark as the weakest of the other opponents Wales have to take on.

However, the Danes are likely to have a similar mindset given that this is the easiest of their assignments on paper so I expect both sides to target this game as a near must win for any chance of success in this group.

Denmark saw this selection land in their opening game against Norway, and were quite unlucky to lose 3-2 with both sides posting similar underlying numbers.

They didn’t lose a game at home during World Cup qualifying, and I think they will be able to come out on top but not without Wales getting on the scoresheet. 

There’s a standout game for BTTS on Sunday in the Canadian Premier League.

York United, or Inter Toronto as they're also known, have seen BTTS in 18/22 league games this term, and they host a Pacific side who’ve seen the bet land in 16/22.

These are the best two teams in the division for BTTS Yes.

9/10 York United home games have seen the bet land, and it’s come in during six of the last seven meetings between the sides.

York United have scored in 20/22 league outings, but kept just two clean sheets.

Pacific have been even worse defensively, keeping one league clean sheet across 22 games.

I make Norway favourites here, I’m still really not convinced by the balance of this Portuguese side despite the change in manager - and Norway have been so tough to beat at home over the last year as Italy and Denmark have recently found out.

Despite their general dominance at home, Norway do find keeping clean sheets quite difficult. They didn’t keep a single shutout during the World Cup and conceded two goals against Denmark last time out as they picked off their Nations League campaign.

Portugal’s backline isn’t exactly solid either, they conceded an xG of 5.80 across their five games at the World Cup and only kept out Colombia and Uzbekistan, with the former being very unlucky not to get on the scoresheet with an xG of 1.70 from 24 shots.

Serbia are not in a good spot, and that doesn’t bode well ahead of hosting the Netherlands.

Despite looking capable on paper, they’re a poor team, and since World Cup qualifying began for them in June 2025, they’ve only beaten Latvia and Andorra in competitive action.

Even though they led until the 74th minute, they were deservedly beaten at home to Greece on Thursday, conceding 2.51 xG on the night - if Greece can post those kinds of numbers, what can the Netherlands?

It was another promising but unspectacular showing from the Dutch at the World Cup, going out to Morocco on penalties, and they’ll be eyeing a spot in the Nations League knockouts after drawing with Jurgen Klopp’s Germany on Thursday.

Mallorca have made a good start in the second tier after their five-season spell in La Liga ended last term.

They’ve kept five clean sheets in six games this season, a defensive process that’ll stand them in good stead looking for an immediate return to the top-flight.

Almeria have overperformed defensively so far this season, to concede four goals from 6.6 xG conceded.

Mallorca have overperformed in the same area but by a lesser extent, and they have the joint-best defence in the league according to xG conceded and goals conceded.

They’ve won three of their last four, keeping four straight clean sheets, coming into this and could go top with a win if other results go their way.

Top of the table clash in League B Group 3, as Austria look to build on their 3-1 win at Israel on Thursday, and Kosovo their 1-0 win over Republic of Ireland.

There are 55 places between these two in the rankings, and Austria are coming in off the back of a satisfactory World Cup, where they reached the knockout stages but ultimately only beat Jordan in their four tournament outings.

Kosovo were very competitive in World Cup qualifying, but did only score six goals in their six group stage games.

It’s hard to see them chasing the game well if Austria are able to get their noses in front.

Last season’s 5th-placed side, Burgos, have made an impressive start in the Spanish second tier, winning three, drawing two and losing just once so far.

They’re four unbeaten and have won back-to-back games coming into this one, upsetting the odds with a 2-1 win at Las Palmas last time out, with forgotten man Jese Rodriguez on the scoresheet for their opponents that day.

Newly-promoted Eldense have made a slow start, and goalscoring has been a problem.

They’ve scored only four times in six encounters, crucially, for this bet, finding the net just once in their three league away games.

That bodes well for a Burgos side who’re becoming a regular feature at the top end of the division.

I do have a soft spot for this Greece side with all the young talent they have coming through, particularly in forward areas, but beating a side like Germany on the road is still probably a step too far for this young team.

Germany are really hard to beat on home soil, they won all three of their games during World Cup qualifying at home and only conceded one goal, netting 13. Those games saw them put six past Slovakia, four past Luxembourg and three past Northern Ireland.

Even in the last Nations League campaign, Germany won all three home games by an aggregate scoreline of 13-0 with this group being more competitive and featuring the likes of Netherlands, Hungary and Bosnia.

Jurgen Klopp does have work to do to bring this Germany side back to the pinnacle of the sport, but this is a good platform for him to earn his first win as Germany boss.