Switzerland v Slovenia Tips

Switzerland are comfortably the best side in this group and have won both of their games against North Macedonia and Scotland 3-0.

They’ve been very comfortable in these games, dominating the underlying numbers in both matches and I think they punish a Slovenia side who relied on Jan Oblak to keep Scotland out in their opening game of the Nations League.

Switzerland are really a Nations League A side, they reached the quarter finals of the World Cup over the summer and still have a really well balanced squad that is good enough to record a third straight victory in this group.

These nations faced off during World Cup qualifying last year, with Switzerland avoiding defeat in both games and coming away 3-0 winners when they welcomed Slovenia in Basel - conceding just one shot on target and an xG of 0.19.

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

Switzerland are comfortably the best side in this group and have won both of their games against North Macedonia and Scotland 3-0.

They’ve been very comfortable in these games, dominating the underlying numbers in both matches and I think they punish a Slovenia side who relied on Jan Oblak to keep Scotland out in their opening game of the Nations League.

Switzerland are really a Nations League A side, they reached the quarter finals of the World Cup over the summer and still have a really well balanced squad that is good enough to record a third straight victory in this group.

These nations faced off during World Cup qualifying last year, with Switzerland avoiding defeat in both games and coming away 3-0 winners when they welcomed Slovenia in Basel - conceding just one shot on target and an xG of 0.19.

These nations faced off in the group stages of the World Cup in a clash that produced six goals with England coming away 4-2 winners - but looking far from settled at the back.

Croatia’s xG of 0.70 probably doesn’t reflect the issues that Croatia caused England in that game, they were able to get behind England’s high line on multiple occasions and managed five shots on target in total.

They have a new manager at the helm in Slaven Bilic, and he has an exciting group of players to work with who may not be at the level of the Croatia side that reached the World Cup final in 2018, but certainly has promise to develop into another decent team.

Croatia have seen BTTS in both of their Nations League games so far, notably managing to breach Spain’s backline last time out - which is the best defensive unit in Europe.

Czechia actually looked like they could cause England some problems before Sulc’s early red card which changed the course of the game. England have scored in each of their last eight matches, so finding the back of the net shouldn’t be an issue. 

Spain are really heavy favourites to win here as you’d expect (1.071), so there’s little value in backing them in the win market or even looking at a high goal line.

I’m instead going for an angle that I still think Czechia can contribute to here given their over reliance on set pieces and corners in particular as an avenue to goal. No side scored a higher percentage of their goals from set pieces during qualifying than Czechia, while they also conceded 6+ corners to England last time out.

Spain could easily cover this line themselves, they focus a lot of their build up through the wide areas with Yamal and Williams/Baena being really effective outlets for Luis de la Fuente’s side.

Spain saw 9+ corners in their opening game of the Nations League campaign against England, also seeing 8+ corners against Croatia last time out.

It’s far too early to judge Sebastien Pocognoli given that he’s only had two games in charge of the national team, but it’s fair to say that it’s yet to go to plan with Scotland failing to beat Slovenia in his opening game and falling to a 3-0 defeat against Switzerland last time out.

They did drop down to 10 men quite early on in that loss to the strongest side in the group, and Pocognoli looked like a very frustrated man throughout the game - collecting a yellow card himself for taking issue with the referee just before half time. 

That said, I saw enough in the second half of Scotland’s draw with Slovenia to suggest that Scotland can find the back of the net here and score the first goal of the Pocognoli era. 

They generated an xG of 2.16 from 17 shots in that 0-0 draw, and are certainly capable of scoring against a North Macedonia side who have lost both of their games to nil so far - conceding 2+ goals in both games.

North Macedonia have carried little to no threat across these games, conceding an xG of 1.97 against Slovenia - which would suggest that they will struggle with the attacking capabilities of this Scotland side, who have been unlucky not to score under their new boss.