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AC Milan v Fiorentina Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

AC Milan v Fiorentina Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Friday 17 October, 20253 min read
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After holding on to a 6th-place finish last season, only on goal difference, it has so far been a struggle for Fiorentina to balance domestic and Conference League fixtures. After six Serie A matches, they are still yet to taste victory, meaning they sit narrowly above the relegation zone. With a daunting trip to the San Siro coming up this weekend, the pressure seems set to mount on Stefano Pioli in the Fiorentina dugout against his former club.

These AC Milan v Fiorentina Betting Stats offer further insight.

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AC Milan v Fiorentina Best Bet Builder Bets
  • AC Milan v Fiorentina
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
4 Selections @ 3.52

AC Milan to Win

After stumbling in a shock defeat against newly-promoted Cremonese on the opening weekend, AC Milan bounced back by winning five of their next six games, keeping five clean sheets in that run. That includes a 2-1 win over Napoli, and a draw against Juventus in Turin - two difficult fixtures during which the Rossoneri avoided defeat. 

It could have easily been six wins from six as well, as Christian Pulisic wasted a golden chance to put his side ahead against Juventus from the penalty spot. AC Milan racked up 1.74 xG to no avail in that game, conceding 1.13 xG in return. 

After a complete squad overhaul during the summer, Massimiliano Allegri has done an excellent job at getting his side to gel and look strong as a unit. As it stands, AC Milan are 3rd in the league, two points behind both Roma and Napoli, boasting the 2nd-best defensive record in the Italian top-flight.

Fiorentina Goalkeeper to Make 3+ Saves

Meanwhile, with a record of three draws and three losses from their six matches, Fiorentina are really struggling. They have scored just four goals so far this term, but have also been found wanting at the other end of the field. In fact, Fiorentina have allowed the 6th-most shots on target in the league - on average 37.5% of their opponents’ shots are hitting the target, which is not a stat to be proud of. 

It highlights how Fiorentina are offering very little defensive resistance when it comes to denying their opposition quality chances, and that is something AC Milan will look to exploit. The Rossoneri are averaging 16.5 shots per game, with 32.6% of those efforts hitting the target. They have drawn a total of 19 saves from their six league matches so far, so David de Gea looks set to be in for a busy night.

Christopher Nkunku to have 1+ Shots on Target

Christopher Nkunku is one of the AC Milan players who should be licking his lips at the prospect of this matchup. The striker is yet to start this campaign since arriving from Chelsea, but with Allegri having to contend with several key injuries in forward areas, this could be Nkunku’s time to shine. 

Christian Pulisic has struggled with injury this season, and his condition seems to have deteriorated over the international break. He was left out for USA’s friendly against Ecuador with apparent ankle swelling, before declaring himself fit to start against Australia. However, he lasted just 30 minutes before being substituted, so is unlikely to feature this weekend. 

Alexis Saelemaekers was another casualty of the international break, as he picked up an injury with Belgium, so Nkunku is likely to start upfront alongside Santiago Gimenez in this match.

Youssouf Fofana to Commit 1+ Fouls

Fiorentina might be low in the Serie A table, but they are near the top of the table for total fouls drawn. In fact, La Viola have drawn the 2nd-most fouls in the Italian top-flight this term. It was a similar story in the previous campaign as well - Fiorentina ranked 2nd for fouls won. 

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia has been a key contributor to that record, he has drawn eight infringements in just three starts. His midfield partner, Rolando Mandragora, has been equally adept at drawing contact in the middle of the park, averaging 2.12 fouls drawn per 90. 

Both players should find duels against Youssouf Fofana of AC Milan, who operates in midfield. The France international has already racked up eight fouls from six Serie A games, averaging 1.58 fouls per 90.

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📈 AC Milan v Fiorentina Form & Tactics

Stefano Pioli’s side had an average of 2.11 points per game at the Artemio Franchi Stadium last season, and they lost three home games in the entire Serie A season. They've lost their last three at home, a lot has changed.

Fiorentina might take some consolation from the fact that they progressed through the Conference League play-offs and got off to a winning start against Sigma Olomouc, but the main priority will be to restore parity to their league form. 

AC Milan find themselves in a much more comfortable position, flying high near the top of the table. Allegri’s men rank 3rd in the league for xGF and 2nd xGA, highlighting just how efficient their performances have been. It is also worth noting that they have had some tough fixtures, and were incredibly unlucky to lose out to Cremonese in gameweek one. 

The hosts racked up 24 shots in that game, amounting to 1.92 xG, while the visitors scored twice from their four shots, which totalled at just 0.21 xG. 


📔AC Milan v Fiorentina Formation & Team News

Moise Kean picked up an injury while on international duty, which is a blow for La Viola. Kean was the top scorer for his side in the previous campaign with 19 goals, but his efficiency so far this term has regressed. Simon Sohm is also a doubt after missing out against Roma, while Tariq Lamptey lasted just 22 minutes in his first start for Fiorentina before picking up an ACL injury. 

After missing out against Juventus through suspension, Pervis Estupinan will be eligible to play after serving his one-game suspension, but his availability is in doubt after being forced off during the international break. He picked up an injury against the USA, which kept him out of Ecuador's friendly against Mexico, so he is a doubt to feature here.  

Alexis Saelemaekers and Pulisic also picked up injuries during the international break, and are unlikely to play this weekend. Leao is yet to start this season as he builds up his fitness, but was seemingly dealt another injury blow as he was released from Portugal’s squad, so he could miss out as well.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

There are plenty more Football Betting Tips, including European Football Predictions, for this weekend's action on Andy's Bet Club.

Our Sunday coverage includes: Como v Juventus Tips, Getafe v Real Madrid Betting TipsNantes v Lille Predictions and Atalanta v Lazio Tips.

Goals and player prop bettors are spoilt for choice with our Over 2.5 Goals PredictionsBTTS Acca TipsShots PredictionsPlayer Fouls Tips and Score or Assist Betting Tips.

Amongst the best bonuses of the weekend are the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer, bet365 Sign Up Offer and the SBK Sign Up Offer. There's a full list of the Best Free Bet Offers on-site too, as well as the Best Odds Boosts.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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