Milan have averaged 5.53 corners per league game this season, with only city rivals, Inter, managing more. The Rossoneri have won at least 5 corners in 22 of their 30 league games and are equally strong defensively.

Fiorentina concede more than Milan, allowing their opposition an average of 4.13 per game. 

Milan tend to come out on top in corner clashes, having won 12 of their last 16 in Serie A. Meanwhile, Fiorentina won just two of their previous 10.

Fiorentina have produced consistent attacking returns this season, boasting a remarkable streak going back 33 games, during which time they’ve only failed to find a way onto the scoresheet in four.

Despite a recent downturn in form, Fiorentina have still bagged at least one goal in 12 of their last 14, as they look to revive their top four hopes.

Milan, meanwhile, have not improved defensively under Sergio Conceicao and have now failed to keep a clean sheet for eight games on the trot across all competitions, conceding two or more in five. Looking more specifically at their league form, they not only look like a dejected side but have also shipped at least one goal in 12 of their previous 14.

Tijjani Reijnders has emerged as a reliable shooting threat from midfield for Milan, averaging an impressive 2.30 shots per 90 minutes. The Dutchman has recorded two or more attempts in 21 of his last 27 outings across all competitions.

Perhaps equally significantly, Reijnders had fired off at least four shots in each of his last three games, despite those being tough clashes with Spain, Napoli, and Inter Milan.

Typically, it hasn’t been difficult to breach Fiorentina’s defence this season, which has been prone to structural issues on occasion. La Viola have conceded an average of 11.67 shots per 90, which should provide Reijnders some additional encouragement.

When Milan do get the win, it tends not to be by a massive margin and backing them to score fewer than 3 goals is a sensible choice. They’ve averaged no more than 1.5 goals per game in the league, with this selection coming home in 15 of their last 17 in Serie A and 22 of their most recent 26 across all competitions.

As for Fiorentina, they’ve conceded an average of just one goal per game in the league. They’ve managed to deprive their opponents of a third goal in 28 of their 30 league matches so far, including each of their most recent 12.

Looking at the head-to-head record, this selection has been a winner in each of the last six meetings between these sides, and with Fiorentina looking stronger than in previous seasons and Milan weaker, we’re unlikely to see an exception to the trend.

Fiorentina have averaged a mere 3.93 corners per 90 in the league - the third-fewest of any side in Serie A this season. In recent weeks, this figure has dramatically fallen, with La Viola winning just 20 corners across their last 10 domestic clashes, including two or fewer in eight.

Playing away from home also seems to affect them, with their average on the road standing at 3.29, as opposed to the 4.50 they’ve managed at home. Nonetheless, their home advantage didn’t seem to aid them in the reverse fixture, when Fiorentina failed to win a single corner against Milan.

Milan’s record at preventing opposition corners is also pretty solid, allowing their opponents an average of just 3.87.

It hasn’t been an easy season for Pavlovic, who has found himself repeatedly criticised for poor positioning, with it being widely cited that he would suit a back-three much more where he could play a sweeper-like position.

Nonetheless, few doubt his 1v1 defending, which has yielded an impressive rate of 2.65 tackles per game across all competitions, rising to 2.71 when solely considering his Serie A efforts.

Pavlovic has made at least three tackles in 10 of his last 13 matches, notably including each of his most recent four. Coming up against the in-form Moise Kean, Pavlovic is sure to have his work cut out for him, particularly given the Fiorentina forward’s impressive hold-up play.

Finally, we’re also backing Nicolo Fagioli to fire off at least one shot during the 90, something that seems pretty likely, as evidenced by his rate of 1.37 per 90 minutes in Serie A this season.

The centre-mid has struggled for gametime this season, but his move to Fiorentina on loan should help with that. Fagioli has managed just 14 starts across all competitions this season but has fired off at least one shot in 10 of them.

Milan have conceded an average of 11.1 shots per 90 in Serie A to date, although only the shots conceded by Napoli and Roma have averaged a further distance from goal. This is significant because two-thirds of Fagioli’s shots this season have come from outside the box, implying this game could suit him to a tee.