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Across Andy’s Bet Club this weekend we have a whole host of free football tips and expert betting predictions. We also aim to save you as much money as possible, whilst helping you bet as smart as you can, and you can do so by getting involved with the various free bet offers and the very latest bookmaker offers that we’ve spotted to share with our readers.

It’s not just the televised games from the continent that we’ve taken a deep dive into, so if you’re looking for more top five league action, why not check out our European football accumulator and Serie A betting predictions?

AC Milan v Fiorentina

Scudetto-chasing AC Milan will entertain a classy-looking Fiorentina side on Saturday evening as the San Siro takes centre stage in Serie A. The home side have faltered of late and they are in danger of losing touch in the race for the title and also face an early exit from the Champions League.

In contrast, the visitors arrive here full of confidence with ambitions of mounting another European challenge this season, and this looks a mouth-watering fixture for the neutral. There are plenty of interesting betting angles to explore ahead of this game which has high-class sporting drama written all over it.

Stefano Pioli led his AC Milan side to their first Scudetto title in just over ten years during the 2021-22 campaign and also steered them to a Champions League semi-final last season. The Rossoneri made a rapid start this term and sat top of Serie A heading into the last international break, with a 5-1 defeat in the Derby della Madonnina the only real blemish on their record at that point.

However, the hosts have been disappointing since, and are now winless in four league matches, which included a humiliating 1-0 home defeat to Udinese and a 2-2 draw at Leece last time out.

Vincenzo Italiano’s side enjoyed a successful season last year as they finished eighth in the league whilst also making the Europa Conference League final, eventually losing out to West Ham United in that competition.

The Viola have started this campaign in a similar fashion and currently sit sixth, just one point outside the Champions League qualification places having enjoyed credible wins over the likes of Napoli and Atalanta in recent weeks. They should arrive here in a buoyant mood and will be confident of inflicting more damage on the home side which could spell trouble for Pioli.

The head-to-head clashes between these sides have served up some classics in recent times, not least the two fixtures in the league last season, both of which were the subject of late drama. A Rafael Leao strike put AC Milan in front early on here before Antonin Barak secured parity for the visitors, but it was a 92nd-minute own goal from Nikola Milenkovic that handed the points to Pioli’s side in a 2-1 win.

In the reverse fixture in Florence, the scoreline was also reversed as Fiorentina atoned, as goals from Nicolas Gonzalez and Luka Jovic, now of AC Milan, sealed the victory.

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AC Milan v Fiorentina Cheat Sheet

This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.

The research in this piece has been pulled together using the AC Milan v Fiorentina Cheat Sheet. There’s a wide range of stats to choose from, be it player cards or team shots on target. We even have referee stats so you know when cards are likely to fly.

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own methods for helping you pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find AC Milan v Fiorentina bet builder match stats on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.

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⚽ AC Milan v Fiorentina stats: Pioli under pressure, and Viola on course for victory?

Having delivered plenty of success during his time at AC Milan, Pioli now finds himself under intense pressure and scrutiny for the first time in his tenure at the club. The Rossoneri face a huge week ahead of them as they host Fiorentina here before playing Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League on Tuesday evening, and those two fixtures could ultimately decide Pioli’s long-term future in Milan.

Confidence however is bound to be low within the squad given their alarming drop in form. Having started the season in blistering fashion, results have taken a turn since the October international break. That run has included 1-0 home losses to both Juventus and Udinese while they have twice squandered a 2-0 lead on the road, eventually drawing those games against Napoli and Lecce.

If they are to get a positive result here, they’ll have to do it without their most influential players. Top scorer Olivier Giroud is out through suspension while Christian Pulisic and Rafael Leao are nursing injuries and they are also likely to miss out. The majority of AC Milan’s good play this campaign has come when those three have all been available, but they’ll have to find another way in their absence.

In contrast, Fiorentina arrive here in good shape and should be confident of securing a positive result given the hosts’ current plight. These sides like to dominate possession, ranking 2nd and 3rd in this metric and averaging around 56% in each game. Italiano’s side are likely to see less of the ball here, but with the likes of Giroud missing to hold up play, we could see plenty of turnovers.

One aspect that the Viola can exploit in this game is AC Milan’s defence which has been disrupted all season long. With suspensions to Mike Maignan, Theo Hernandez and Malick Thiaw and injuries to Simon Kjaer, Pierre Kalulu and club captain Davide Calabria, it’s safe to say that there has been a lack of consistency at the back this campaign.

Fiorentina have excellent attacking options that can cause problems for whichever defence the home side manage to field, and the visitors are strongly fancied to get something at the San Siro, a venue where they have flourished in recent times. There is certainly good value on the double chance market and in taking them to win the game, both make plenty of sense at generous odds.

Predictions:

🏆 Fiorentina double chance @ 1.67

🏆 Fiorentina to win @ 3.50

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🎯 Shooting stats: Can Jovic turn it around?

In the absence of Giroud, and with Pulisic and Leao struggling to win their fitness race, it could be down to the likes of Noah Okafor, Samuel Chukwueze and the former Fiorentina forward Luka Jovic to step up to the plate and deputise for the regular forwards. However, it’s clear that these replacements don’t quite hold the same firepower as the regular starters, which could be detrimental.

It’s been strongly reported that Jovic is set to get the nod from Pioli. The Serbian’s career has really stalled since his big money move to Real Madrid from Stuttgart back in 2019 and he’s never quite reached the potential he showed during his Benfica days. A move to Florence was billed as a fresh start but after just one season for the Viola, he was moved on to AC Milan.

However, Jovic is yet to score for his new club in seven appearances and has been somewhat underwhelming. Filling in for the likes of Giroud and Leao is no easy task, especially for a player really low on confidence and he may well struggle to make any sort of impact in this game, in fact AC Milan as a whole may well find it difficult to make any sort of impression in the final third here.

It’s conceivable that the main attacking threat for Fiorentina will come from Argentinian forward Nicolas Gonzalez who’s in great form at the moment. The talisman has already equalled his goal tally in Serie A from last season, and in fewer than half the games played, scoring 6 goals in 11 games compared to the same haul in 24 games during the last campaign and he’s the main danger.

It’s easy to see why Gonzalez has enjoyed so much success in front of goal. The striker has taken an astonishing 33 shots this term which is the fourth-highest of any player in the entire league, averaging 3.67 per 90 minutes played. What’s more, 12 of these have hit the target which equates to 1.33 per game. During the 2-1 win in March, Gonzalez had two on target and scored a penalty.

Giacomo Bonaventura is another one to watch out for during this contest. The attacking midfielder has 5 goals to his name already and averages a couple of shots per game, however, it’s Gonzalez who is backed to have a greater influence on proceedings. Taking him to have a shot on target during the game makes plenty of sense, and at even higher odds he is fancied to get himself on the scoresheet.

Predictions:

🎯 Nicolas Gonzalez to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.44

⚽ Nicolas Gonzalez to score anytime @ 3.75

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🛑 Cards and Fouls stats: Cards to fly for the hosts, and Parisi to cause headaches for Hernandez

Fiorentina are a well-organised and disciplined outfit, something which is evidenced by their good track record when it comes to cards this season. They are one of eight teams yet to receive a red and have only managed to pick up 22 bookings, which is the 3rd lowest total in Serie A. Therefore, it’s not expected that we’ll see a flurry of cards for the visitors, but fouls are an interesting angle.

While the severity of the challenges made by the Viola don’t always warrant a card, it’s the frequency of the fouls they commit that attracts interest from a betting perspective. The visitors have already amassed a total of 155 fouls in their 12 league matches this season which is an average of almost 13 per game. Incidentally, that puts them 5th in the league for volume of fouls committed.

There are plenty of candidates to choose from when constructing a bet builder, not least Lucas Martinez Quarta, Alfred Duncan, Cristiano Biraghi, Nikola Milenkovic, and Arthur Melo, all of whom are currently averaging at least one foul per 90 minutes in the league this season, and all of whom are likely to feature during the game given their average playing time for Fiorentina during this campaign.

It goes without saying that Theo Hernandez has had his problems with discipline, not only this season but throughout his career. The French attacking left back has already served a one-match ban for accumulating 5 yellow cards this season and was again booked in the 2-2 draw at Lecce before the international break, taking his tally to 7 cards this campaign, and he’s one to watch here.

Hernandez is likely to be in for a busy evening, especially from a defensive perspective. Fiorentina right back Fabiano Parisi is one of the most fouled players in Serie A having won 25 free kicks this season, with only Michael Folorunsho and Mattia Zaccagni drawing more with 28. With Hernandez marauding forward, he could get caught short at the back as Parisi likes to attack himself.

The AC Milan man will be conscious of collecting yet another yellow card, so he’s not taken to find his way into the referee’s notebook, however, he is taken to commit one or two fouls during the course of the game. Backing Hernandez in this market makes for plenty of appeal, especially with Parisi drawing as many fouls as he does and that’s the sensible play from a bet builder perspective.

Predictions:

🟨 AC Milan to receive the most cards @ 2.60

🛑 Theo Hernandez to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.40

🛑 Theo Hernandez to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.88

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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