AC Milan v Napoli

With Napoli’s title hopes at risk of fading away following a dismal spell, which has seen them win just one of their last seven, they host an unpredictable Milan side that remarkably remains in the race for a top-four position.

With Inter finding form and consistency, Napoli can’t afford to drop any more points as they aim for the Scudetto, but Milan certainly won’t be brushed aside.

The Rosonneri look to be in a six-way battle for a spot in The Champions League next season, with Italy likely to secure just four rather than five places.

⭐ Napoli v AC Milan Best Bets

➡️ Under 14.5 Napoli Shots @ 1.83 on bet365

Napoli have struggled to assert themselves in the final third this season, bagging just 45 goals, the eighth most in Serie A. Meanwhile, they’ve accumulated just the seventh-most expected goals - not figures you’d expect from a team fighting for the title.

Their shot output mirrors that lack of attacking edge, averaging only 13.4 attempts per game. They've managed 15 or more shots in just ten of their 29 matches, predominantly coming against weaker sides than Milan.

That trend aligns well with this selection, especially considering AC Milan’s defensive record. The Rossoneri have allowed a lowly average of just 11.2 shots per game, creating a significant gap between Napoli’s usual output and what’s needed to exceed this threshold.

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👕 Napoli v AC Milan Predicted XI

🔍 Napoli v AC Milan Players to Watch

🔴 Tijjani Reinders

Reijnders has been one of Milan’s most consistent threats from midfield, averaging 2.21 shots per 90 across all competitions.

The Dutchman has hit two or more shots in 15 of his last 20 appearances. This isn't a trend padded by soft fixtures either - he's delivered against top-tier opposition: Inter (three times), Roma (twice), Real Madrid, Liverpool, and several others.

Given Napoli concede just 9.6 shots per game, Milan may not run wild, but Reijnders’ willingness to strike from distance means he doesn’t need sustained pressure to register his efforts. 47% of his shots to date have come from outside the box, which helps explain his ability to do this against top-tier opposition, regardless of how Milan as a whole is playing.

➡️ Tijjani Reinders to have 2+ Shots @ 1.83 on bet365 🔛

🔵 Scott McTominay

McTominay has been a reliable source of fouls this season, averaging 1.51 per 90 minutes in all competitions.

He's committed at least one foul in 18 of his last 20 appearances, a streak he extended over the international break with fouls in both of Scotland’s fixtures.

In the reverse meeting with Milan, he was right in the thick of it, drawing two fouls and committing two of his own. 

A similar scenario looks likely this weekend, especially with Warren Bondo likely to be his direct opponent. The Milan man draws fouls at a rate of 1.91 per 90, making this a well-backed selection at a short but justified price.

➡️ Scott McTominay to Commit 1+ Fouls @ 1.22 on bet365 🔛

📂 Napoli v AC Milan Cheat Sheet

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💻 Napoli v AC Milan Form and Tactics

Somewhat surprisingly, Napoli have spent large portions of the season operating a 4-3-3 or a 4-2-3-1. 

This showed adaptability that most are not used to seeing from Conté, who has since reverted to his trusty 3-5-2, in part due to Kvaretshkelia’s January departure to PSG.

It is this formation they are likely to set up against Milan, which will make for an intriguing contest in midfield against The Rossoneri’s 4-2-3-1.

Conceicao’s men operate a very high press and will aim to put Napoli’s defenders under sustained pressure throughout the 90.

As such, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Milan retain the majority of possession, something they typically have done under Conecicao, although this intensity can sometimes falter away from home.

Napoli’s defence has been tough to break down this season, conceding the fewest goals and expected goals in the league. That said, Milan have shown moments of offensive brilliance, but stricken with inconsistency, it remains to be seen which Milan will turn up on Sunday.

🏁 Napoli v AC Milan Ref Watch

• Referee: Simone Sozza

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.