Arsenal v Brighton
The penultimate Premier League game of the round sees Brighton travel to the Emirates to face Arsenal in an important match for both sides. In the reverse fixture, Arsenal came out on top, winning 4-2 and taking a seven-point lead at the top of the table heading into 2023. Interestingly, however, Brighton have won on both of their most recent trips to the Emirates, while Arsenal have won just one of the five most recent H2Hs between the two sides here.
These are two sides that play some exceptional football on their day, and having crunched the numbers, there’s a very tasty looking 5/2 bet builder coming right up.
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Title Hopes Fading for the Gunners
Arsenal’s last game ended in a 2-0 victory as they secured three crucial points at St James’ Park. Martin Odegaard opened the scoring early before a Fabian Schar own goal sealed the points with 20 minutes to go. Many saw that as Arsenal’s most difficult game in the run-in and so they will be hoping to win their last three games of the season to put maximum pressure on Manchester City.
Worryingly for Brighton, that win extended Arsenal’s unbeaten streak on Sundays to 13, a record that they could extend here. That result leaves Arsenal on 81 points, having had a phenomenal season, but they are still likely to fall short of Manchester City, who are one point ahead and have played one game less.
They will need the Cityzens, who have been relentless, to slip up twice to have any hope of winning the title so their chances are slim.
The Gunners were eight points clear as recently as the 19th of March but a run of three consecutive draws and a defeat against Liverpool, West Ham, Southampton and Manchester City themselves have put the Manchester side in pole position to seal another Premier League title under Pep Guardiola.
Arsenal Team News
Takehiro Tomiyasu and Mohamed Elneny, who have been ruled out for weeks, will be joined by William Saliba and Oleksandr Zinchenko, both of whow will not play again this season according to reports but Mikel Arteta has denied those claims.
Jorginho, who was impressive in their victory last time out against a dynamic Newcastle midfield, might keep his place in the side, leaving Thomas Partey on the bench again. Leandro Trossard could line up to face his former side but will likely be on the side lines to begin with.
Brighton Looking to Bounce Back from Everton Thrashing
Brighton arrive at the Emirates on the back of one of the most surprising results of the Premier League this season. The home side were 1/3 favourites to beat Everton coming into the game but found themselves 3-0 down within 35 minutes, much to the disappointment of the home crowd.
The final scoreline of 1-5 flattered the visitors, as they managed to score from every shot on target and significantly outperformed their expected goals for (2.23). On the other hand, the home side were poor in front of goal, scoring just once from 23 shots, 15 corners and 2.99 expected goals. Manager Roberto de Zerbi questioned his side’s mentality and warned that on Sunday, people would “see the true Brighton”.
That result leaves Brighton in seventh place, and they still appear to be in a good position to secure European football for next season. However, Aston Villa are in hot pursuit and even though they have two games in hand over the Villains, they have a very tough run of games to come.
The Seagulls must play each of the top three and also travel to Villa Park itself. For a spot in the Europa League, they need to finish in the top six, which is achievable given that they are only two points behind Spurs having played two games fewer. The North London side have also been poor in recent weeks.
Brighton Team News
De Zerbi made four half-time substitutions against Everton and one of the players he brought on, Solly March, came off later in the match with a thigh injury ruling him out here. Jeremy Sarmiento, Adam Webster, Tariq Lamptey, Adam Lallana and Jakub Moder are also unavailable, while Joel Veltman is a doubt.
De Zerbi will likely make changes to his starting eleven, with Julio Enciso, Evan Ferguson and Levi Colwill being the most probable beneficiaries, replacing Deniz Undav, Danny Welbeck and Adam Webster. A slight change in system could also see Billy Gilmour start ahead of Facundo Buonanotte.
Arsenal v Brighton Cheat Sheet
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Arsenal v Brighton
Arsenal have seen plenty of goals scored at both ends of the pitch in recent weeks. Their 2-0 victory at Newcastle was the first them that both teams have not found the net in eight attempts and they have scored at least two in 10 of their last 11 Premier League games 0 with the exception being at Manchester City.
This selection has landed in 12 of their last 14 games and this is not an anomaly according to expected goals. In those 14 matches, there have been a total of at least 2.4 expected goals in 13 and at least 3 xG in ten.
Brighton have seen an average of 3.50 goals per game on the road this season, with this selection landing in three quarters of those games, including in eight of their last ten away from home.
They have scored in each of their last 11 Premier League games and have accumulated at least 1.4 xGF in 10 of those and at least 2.3 xGF in 9. Defensively, they have been more vulnerable in recent weeks, conceding 2.3 xG to Everton and 2.4 xG at Nottingham Forest. The reverse fixture saw six goals scored from a total of 4.1 xG as Arsenal won 4-2.
Martin Odegaard is in the form of his life and is a pivotal part of the Arsenal midfield. He’s Arsenal’s joint top scorer in the league with 15 having also taken the most shots of any player with 89. The Norwegian averages 0.97 shots on target per 90.
He has scored five goals in his last five matches, having nine shot on target in that time. The midfielder has played ten home league matches in 2023, having at least two shots in nine of them and amassing a total of 35 attempts with 10 on target.
This selection has landed in six of the last eight matches here and he has taken eight of the 15 direct shots from free kicks for the Gunners. In the reverse fixture, the Arsenal skipper both scored and assisted at the AMEX Stadium and he also scored in this exact fixture last season too.
Alexis MacAllister is having a sensational season, having already won the most prestigious trophy in the world – the World Cup. As well as that, the midfielder is Brighton’s top scorer this season having scored ten goals from his 75 shots, having an average of 0.96 shots on target per game.
The Argentinian has scored all six of his penalties for the Seagulls this season, also having eight of their ten shots from free kicks. He has started eight times since April, scoring three times, having at least one shot in all of those games and at least two in seven.
This selection has landed in each of his last four starts and in six of his last eight. The midfielder missed the reverse fixture as he celebrated becoming a World Champion with his Argentinian team mates.
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