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Aston Villa v Chelsea
Here at Andy’s Bet Club, we’re all over the FA Cup fourth round replays with the site featuring FA Cup bet builders and some FA Cup acca tips. It’s not just the FA Cup though, with a variety of expert football tips & predictions from across Europe and beyond available.
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After their 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge at the end of January, Chelsea and Villa will again face off for the right to host Leeds United in the fifth round of the FA Cup.
Chelsea are eight-time winners of this competition, having reached the final a total of 16 times, the third-most of any English side. The Blues lost in the 2022 FA Cup final, and last won the competition in 2018, so they do have the recent pedigree to go with their historical success. Aston Villa meanwhile have won the FA Cup seven times, though not since 1957, a full 13 years before Chelsea’s first FA Cup win in 1970.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side may have reached the final of the League Cup, but should they exit the FA Cup here, their season would effectively be over once that final has been and gone.
Both sides have at least three days of rest following this tie, so we should see both managers going strong with their lineups, which should mean a cracking cup tie, and a game ripe for a bet builder, so read on for our Aston Villa v Chelsea bet builder tips…
Aston Villa v Chelsea Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.
⚽️ Match stats: Unlikely to see another bore draw here
⚽ Both teams to score @ 1.57
⚽ Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65
⚽ Aston Villa to win @ 2.05
⚽ Aston Villa double chance @ 1.29
🎯 Shooting stats: Nice options from the home side
The hosts look to offer the best value on the shots markets in this one. Leon Bailey has been sensational lately, and the Jamaican arrives here in a good vein of shooting form, having notched at least one shot on target in his last four Premier League starts.
Moussa Diaby has seen his starts limited by Bailey’s form, though he has begun to feature more often again in recent weeks, posting a similar record to the man who has been keeping him out of the team. Diaby has had five shots on target in his last five starts, despite not completing 90 minutes in any of these games. Diaby has had two shots, one on target in both of Villa’s games against Chelsea this season, so backing him at 1.62 to do it again looks great value.
Meanwhile, those looking for an outsider pick could do much worse than to back Matty Cash. The Poland international averages 1.67 shots per game, with 0.77 of those on target. He had three shots, two of which were on target in their earlier meeting, and had two shots, one on target in the initial FA Cup tie. Racking up three shots on target in two games against Chelsea this season, backing Cash to do it for a third game in a row at 2.38 looks very tempting.
⚽ Leon Bailey to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.62
⚽ Moussa Diaby to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.62
⚽ Matty Cash to have 1+ shots @ 1.22
⚽ Matty Cash to have 1+ shots on target @ 2.38
🛑 Fouls stats: Should be in for a feisty affair at Villa Park
In the two games between these sides this season, Villa have fouled Chelsea’s central midfielder more than any other position, whilst Chelsea’s fouls have generally been against Villa’s wide players, the wingers and full backs.
However, Villa’s wingers like to come inside and play centrally, meaning the players committing the fouls have been those in Chelsea’s midfield, likely to be Moises Caicedo and Conor Gallagher here.
Of these two, Caicedo offers the best value. He has committed two fouls in both of his games against Villa this season and can be backed to do so again here at 1.53. He has also committed 2+ fouls in five of his last six starts.
Alternatively, should Carney Chukwuemeka get the nod here, he has committed at least one foul in his two starts for Chelsea this season, and can be backed to do so at 1.22.
For the home side, Douglas Luiz looks to be the best bet, having committed four fouls in the two games between these two sides this season. Luiz has also committed a foul in eight of his last 10 domestic games for Villa. However, with the Brazilian committing three fouls in their league meeting but just one in the FA Cup, it makes sense to back him to commit one foul instead of two.
⚽ Moises Caicedo to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.53
⚽ Carney Chukwuemeka to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.22
⚽ Douglas Luiz to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.22
🟨 Cards stats: Thomas Bramall’s notebook to fill up
The first meeting between these two sides saw six cards, with Malo Gusto also seeing a straight red in the second half to go with the five yellows dished out.
With both teams expected to go relatively strong here, it should be a hard-fought clash, and that should mean cards, with Chelsea top of the Premier League yellow card table with 77 and Villa third with 63.
The Blues have seen three or more cards in four of their last five Premier League outings, as have Villa. The Villans have had four players booked in both of their last two home games in the league, and referee Thomas Bramall has been averaging just under 4.5 cards per game, so he will not shy away from a caution when required.
⚽ Over 2.5 Chelsea cards @ 1.87
⚽ Over 1.5 Aston Villa cards @ 1.50
🚩 Corner stats: Nice value for the Villans here
Aston Villa’s last five home league games have seen the hosts accumulate 6+ corners in four of those five games.
The Villans have averaged 6.13 corners per game in the top flight this season and only failed to reach the six-corner mark on one occasion in their last five, that being their 1-0 win over Arsenal in which the Gunners dominated possession.
Chelsea’s last two away games against Liverpool and Luton saw Pochettino’s side accumulate just three corners in 180 minutes of Premier League football. Their last nine away league games have seen Chelsea take six or more corners just three times.
Despite this, the Villans are not heavy favourites on the corner match bet market, which could be a nice edge to boost your Aston Villa v Chelsea bet builder.
⚽ Aston Villa corner match bet @ 1.80
⚽ Over 3.5 Aston Villa corners @ 1.36
⚽ Over 4.5 Aston Villa corners @ 1.75
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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