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Atalanta v Sassuolo Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Atalanta v Sassuolo Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Serie A
Starting: Sun 9th Nov, 11:30
Friday 7 November, 20253 min read
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Sassuolo face a trip to Bergamo to face Atalanta on Sunday at 11.30am. The hosts will be disappointed with their start to the season, sitting in 11th place after 10 matches played.

They are adjusting to life after Gasperini, as the legendary manager departed for Roma in the summer. Sassuolo have enjoyed a stable return to Serie A after their relegation in 2023/24. They sit 12th, also with 12 points after 10 games. The game should see two tightly contested sides battle it out, with Atalanta favourites to take the three points.

Our Football Match Stats, including Atalanta v Sassuolo, provide further insight.

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  • Atalanta v Sassuolo
  • Serie A
  • 11:30
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Fali Cande to Commit 1+ Fouls

Guinea-Bissau international Felix Cande averages 2.10 fouls per 90 since joining Sassuolo in the summer from Venezia.

He has only started two games, but has featured regularly off the bench. In his starts, he has committed three fouls on both occasions against Cagliari and Como. He averages 1.45 fouls per 90 across his spell in Italy, ensuring this season’s low data sample is not a blip.

Atalanta has two solid options at striker for drawing fouls. Starting with summer signing Nikola Krstovic, the Albanian striker has averaged 2.03 fouls drawn per game since his arrival from Lecce. Another option is Gianluca Scamacca, who has averaged an impressive 1.90 fouls drawn per game over his last 50 career matches.

I expect Sassuolo to sit in for large spells of the game, but if Atalanta score early, it will force the visitors to step up, where I predict either of the Atalanta strikers to pin their man and buy cheap fouls.

Kristian Thorstvedt to be Fouled 1+ Times

Kristian Thorstvedt has started the last four Serie A games in centre midfield for Sassuolo. The Norwegian international's fouls won numbers read: 4-2-0-2 in his starts, but considering substitution appearances, he averages 2.94 fouls drawn per 90.

This is an increase from his 2024/25 data, as Thorstvedt averaged 1.31 fouls drawn per 90 across all competitions last season. He is expected to line up against Martin De Roon and Ederson in the Atalanta midfield.

Starting with De Roon, the Dutchman has averaged 1.18 fouls per 90, switching between centre midfield and defence. Ederson has averaged 1.20 fouls per 90 across his last 50, with recent counts of 3, 2, 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 2.

Atalanta to Win

Atalanta are off the back of an impressive, if not entertaining, 1-0 win against Marseille in the UEFA Champions League. The hosts have conceded the joint-3rd fewest goals in the Serie A this season, but when you look into their underlying numbers, they actually have the best defence in the league so far.

They have conceded eight league goals, with an xG against of 8.95, lower than the 2nd-best Inter with 9.19. I expect their trend of conceding few goals to continue at the weekend, as Sassuolo rank 15th for xG, creating just 11.49 in their opening 10 matches.

Sassuolo should be worried; their underlying stats show they should have conceded 16.68 goals so far this season, despite only conceding 12, which typically leads to data creeping up on them. Atalanta finally ended their run of six straight games without victory, and I expect their solid defence to give them a solid foundation to beat Sassuolo on Sunday.

Over 4.5 Atalanta Corners

Atalanta have averaged a massive 8.4 corners per game at home this season. Data can be slightly subjective at the start of a season with smaller data samples, as outliers can have a stronger impact on averages, but Atalanta have faced some tricky sides such as AC Milan, Como and Lazio in their opening five games, suggesting this could be a new pattern evolving under new head-coach Ivan Juric.

They have recorded counts of 9, 7, 8, 8, 10 at home, smashing the over 4.5 line. These are obviously ridiculously high numbers, and it’s unlikely the hosts will maintain such an average, but their season average for 2024/25 was 5.08 with a nice uptick at home of 5.68.

Since their return to the top tier, Sassuolo’s opponents have averaged 5.2 corners per game and have had recent corner counts of seven for Genoa, three for Cagliari, six for Roma, six for Lecce and four for Verona.

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📈 Atalanta v Sassuolo Form & Tactics

Atalanta have had a rather boring start to the campaign by drawing seven of their 10 games, including five of their last 6!

They were beaten 1-0 last weekend away to Udinese, only creating 0.37 xG in the process. Their issues lie in the forward areas as they have only scored four goals in their last six league matches. What is promising is their defensive record.

They are yet to concede more than one goal in a league match all season, so if they sharpen up their attack, they should see an uptick in results. When you look at their underlying numbers, it appears they have been hard done by as their xPTS (expected points) sits at 18.28 despite only picking up 13.

It appears they have failed to replace Mateo Retegui’s goals, after the Italian forward secured his big money move to Al-Qadisiya in Saudi Arabia for a fee in the region of £60 million, after scoring 25 league goals last term.

Sassuolo, on the other hand, can count themselves slightly fortunate as their xPTS sit at 10.05, suggesting they’ve picked up an additional 2.95 points than they should have. The visitors were on a decent run of late, winning three and drawing one of their last five. That was until last weekend, when strugglers Genoa beat them 2-1 on their own patch. They will understand the challenge at hand but will take great belief in Atalanta’s recent woes in front of goal.


📔 Atalanta v Sassuolo Formation & Team News

Atalanta have continued to play 3-4-2-1 this season under new head coach Ivan Juric. They have an established Serie A squad containing players such as Davide Zappacosta and Mario Pasalic, spearheaded by their key player, Ademola Lookman.

The Nigerian forward has struggled to get going this season, scoring just once in six appearances. He has been a consistent marksman for them in recent years, scoring 15, 11, and 13 league goals in the last three seasons.

Sassuolo operate in a 4-3-3 formation under head coach Fabio Grosso. They also have some seasoned pros in their ranks, with seasoned veteran Nemanja Matic anchoring their midfield.

Their main threat is right winger, Euro 2020 winner, and club legend Domenico Berardi, who is in his 14th season with the club.


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