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Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise Bet Builder Tips & Match Preview

Tuesday 4 November, 20254 min read
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The Perceptive Football Punter

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Atletico Madrid host Union St Gilloise on Tuesday evening, both sides have faced tough fixtures in their Champions League campaigns so far. Atletico saw defeat away to Liverpool and Arsenal on matchday one and three, but managed to secure a 5-1 win against Frankfurt on matchday two. 

It was a fantastic start for Union, beating PSV 3-1 away from home, but they’ve since fallen emphatically short against Newcastle and Inter Milan, losing both home matches by a 4-0 scoreline.

Our Football Match Stats, including Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise, provide further insight.

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Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 2.93

Over 2.5 Union St Gilloise Corners

Regardless of who they play against, Union stick to their game plan and play a progressive brand of football. They are very efficient at advancing the ball through the thirds, and this gives them lots of attacking opportunities during a match. Across their three Champions League fixtures they average 5.66 corners, while also averaging 16.66 shots. 

Union are capable of going toe-to-toe with most European sides, and given that Atletico can sometimes be quite pragmatic off the ball, they may invite pressure and give Union some impetus at times. 

Gamestate could be important here, it won’t be a surprise if Atletico are leading at some point in the match, they will probably be content to soak up pressure and sit deep, relying on their streetwise defensive work to try and see out the three points in a pragmatic and measured manner.

Atletico Madrid to Win

There is a slight element of danger here, purely because Union are a dangerous side capable of scoring goals. The Atletico defence has probably been more leaky than Diego Simeone would like, but they’ve now kept three clean sheets in their last three league games; there is some obvious improvement in that department.

Even when Atletico conceded goals in three consecutive home games in September, they won all those matches.

With Union being resoundingly beaten 4-0 by both Inter Milan and Newcastle, there’s big question marks over their defence here; their boldness in and out of possession does usually leave them heavily exposed, and this Atletico side has enough quality to exploit those deficiencies. 

Atletico have been deadly in home games across the league and Champions League, scoring 20 goals across just seven games, that’s almost an average of three a game.

Julian Alvarez to Score or Assist

It’s been a prolific start to the season for Alvarez, he’s already notching up really strong numbers across all competitions. He currently has eight goals and four assists across 13 games in the league and Champions League, putting him at a rather hefty 0.95 goals/assists per 90. 

Although the underlying data suggests there’s been a slight overperformance on those numbers, he’s still commanding a very healthy xG + xA per 90 of 0.81. His current return and expected return on goals and assists puts him well ahead of every other Atletico player, making him the standout choice here.

Over 2.5 Goals

Having already touched upon Atletico’s ruthlessness on home soil this season, there’s reason to believe we could rack up a decent goal count here. This is a team that scored five goals against Real Madrid last month in a 5-2 victory, while they dispatched Frankfurt 5-1 in the same stadium just a few days later.

While I was tempted to go over 2 Atletico goals for a slightly bigger price, I still believe there’s reason to think Union St Gilloise could get on the scoresheet here, it’s hardly surprising given that they’ve scored 28 goals across 13 games in the Belgian Pro League. Incidentally, games which have involved the opposition scoring at the Metropolitano Stadium have seen an average of four goals this season.

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📈 Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise Form & Tactics

It’s a similar theme for Atletico this season, generally looking like one of the most capable teams in Spain, but not quite the same level as Real Madrid and Barcelona. Atletico sit 4th in the league after picking up 22 points from 11 games, Real Madrid already lead them by eight points at such an early stage. 

Despite a 4-0 away defeat to Arsenal in the Champions League, Atletico are in a good vein of form, picking up five wins and one draw from their last six league matches. Atletico have been very prolific in home matches across the league and Champions League, scoring 20 goals and conceding six goals across seven matches. 

Union have been major overachievers on the European stage for a while now, continually punching above their weight and looking competitive. It’s no surprise given their data-heavy approach to player recruitment, which is heavily influenced by Tony Bloom.

Union are a very positive and progressive side, but that aggression can be their downfall after experiencing humbling 4-0 defeats to Newcastle and Inter Milan. However, the visitors are a force to be reckoned with in their domestic league, they are currently top of the league after securing 32 points from 13 games, scoring 28 goals and conceding seven in the process. Union are a very dangerous side on the European circuit; PSV discovered this on matchday one after being beaten 3-1.


📔 Atletico Madrid v Union St Gilloise Formation & Team News

Simeone’s teams have generally lined up in their infamous 4-4-2 for most of his tenure, although there has been some slight flexibility from time to time. There’s lots of fluidity to that system while the team is in possession, with plenty of dynamism and interchanging of positions.

The system is fundamentally built upon defensive compactness and rigidity, rapid counter-attacks, and extremely high work rate off the ball. These have been a hallmark of Simeone’s teams for years and years now; it’s produced lots of success. 

Ahead of the game against Union St Gilloise, Atletico have Paul Barrios out after sustaining an injury against Sevilla at the weekend, while Nicolas Gonzalez is an injury question mark.

Union St Gilloise usually adopt a 3-4-2-1 formation, which can be interchangeable with a 3-4-1-2, depending on personnel and tactics. Pressing is a key component of Union’s approach, and this can often be a very high risk and high reward strategy against good quality opposition.

There’s a significant focus on getting the ball into wide areas and using the wing-backs as an attacking outlet. Union are effective at advancing the ball through different thirds of the pitch, testament to their direct approach in possession. 

It’s not the cleanest bill of health for the visitors, with Guillaume Francois, Mohammed Fuseini, Ivan Pavlic, and Jens Teunckens all on the sidelines. Ousseynou Niang is an injury question mark going into the game at the Metropolitano.


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