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Real Madrid v Bayern Munich

Real Madrid and Bayern Munich start level at the Bernabeu on Wednesday night as the two historic clubs battle for the opportunity to take part in another Champions League final.

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The first leg was a thriller. Vinicius Junior’s double came either side of strikes from Leroy Sane and Harry Kane in the space of four second-half minutes, for Thomas Tuchel’s men to leave this tie delicately poised heading into the second leg.

While Los Blancos picked up the Spanish crown at the weekend before they had even routed Cadiz 3-0 with a rotated team, Bayern were thumped in Stuttgart with a defence almost identical to the one that had played the first leg and an attack led by Harry Kane.

Can the Germans buck their league fortunes to cause an upset or will it be yet another Champions League final for Real Madrid?

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Best Bets

➡️ Real Madrid to win @ 1.90 on Paddy Power
➡️ Over 4.5 cards @ 2.15 on Paddy Power

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📂 Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets, and we encourage you to find your own formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Real Madrid v Bayern Munich match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

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⚔️ Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Head-to-Head

Last week’s match was close fought, with Real Madrid ending with 1.9 xG compared to the 1.6 their hosts mustered in Munich.

Bayern had marginally more of the ball and outshot their opponents 13 to nine, yet the quality of chances carved out was higher from the Spanish club. Los Blancos only had one effort fewer that worked the keeper.

Harry Kane was the main threat as he had four shots, but only one of these found the target – the penalty he scored. Bayern’s other scorer on the night was Leroy Sane, who had two efforts on target and is 1.7 to test the keeper at the Bernabeu.

Surprisingly Eric Dier was also a threat. The on-loan Tottenham defender had two shots, one of which hit the target. He is 6.5 to have another effort on target in this game with Paddy Power.

Real Madrid’s threat was carried by Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo, who combined for five shots. The two that were on target both went in from Vinicius, who is 2.4 to score anytime.

Bayern edged the corner count 6-5 while the German side committed 11 fouls to Real Madrid’s 10, though both clubs saw two yellow cards.

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📊 Real Madrid Form and Stats

Real Madrid’s record this season has been remarkable. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have lost only one game across all competitions in 90 minutes. At home, they are a formidable force, with 18 wins from 22 matches in all competitions and yet to lose. 

Furthermore, they can now focus on European football after the league title was sealed at the weekend. 

Despite being tough to beat, the Bernabeu side do chalk up their fair share of draws. Across their last 17, they have finished all square on seven occasions. Each of their last four Champions League games have finished level, with a couple of 1-1 draws, a 2-2 and a 3-3.

Vinicius has been their outstanding figure, scoring three knockout goals in the competition while Rodrygo has notched a couple.

Interestingly, the 1.9 xG they managed in Munich last week was the highest figure they have managed in the knockout rounds to date, though the 1.6 xG they allowed at their own goal was their second-highest figure in that metric. 

Equally, the five corners they won at the Allianz Arena represent their biggest number in a European match in 2024. Indeed, Los Blancos have been beaten in the corner count in four of their five encounters in this period. Bayern are priced at 2.6 to win this particular battle in the Spanish capital. 

Real have been very steady with the number of free kicks and cards they have picked up in the Champions League in the knockout rounds. In the five matches they have played, they have always committed between ten and 12 fouls while they have picked up two cards on four occasions and three once.

They have been better at drawing fouls and seeing the opposition booked. On three occasions their opponents have seen three cards.

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📊 Bayern Munich Form and Stats

Bayern Munich have endured a chaotic season by their standards, particularly since losing 3-0 to Bayer Leverkusen in early February. Including that defeat, the Bundesliga giants have lost six of their last 17. 

This poor run has not necessarily followed them into Europe, though. After losing 1-0 to Lazio in Rome, Tuchel’s side have pieced together a four-match undefeated sequence in the Champions League, finishing three of those games at least 0.9 xG superior to their opponents.

They boast high shot counts in those games. Only once in the knockout stages have they failed to muster at least ten shots, which was away to Arsenal. This has not translated into a high count for shots on target – they have managed five or more only once.

Kane has four goals (including two penalties) but just five shots on target.

Unlike Real Madrid, they have won more corners than their opponents in five of their six knockout games. Last week’s encounter was the first in which they have given up more than three corners. The Bavarians are 4.0 to give away three corners or fewer.

They have steadily seen two cards across the Champions League knockout rounds. That has been the figure they have been awarded in four of their five fixtures. Last week, they gave up 11 fouls, which is an entirely typical number for Bayern during 2024 on the continent: they have conceded between ten and 14 fouls in their last four matches.

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💰 Real Madrid v Bayern Munich Best Bets 

Given Real Madrid’s home form, the price of 1.90 for Real to win with Paddy Power in normal time is appealing. 

Equally, with each of these teams prone to picking up at least a couple of bookings, the price of 2.15 for over 4.5 cards with Paddy Power looks very strong, particularly with no suspensions for the final for an accumulation of bookings. 

Referee Szymon Marciniak has dished out at least five cards in three of the four Champions League games he has officiated this season, excluding the period of extra time between Atletico Madrid and Inter.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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