Unfortunately, this game was killed the second that the Broncos confirmed that Bo Nix had a fracture in his ankle and would require surgery. Nix isn’t the finished article at quarterback, but he’s shown throughout his time in the NFL so far that he is a capable QB and can rally his team and be clutch in difficult moments.

The Broncos' defense is truly elite, and while I think the Patriots aren’t as good as their record suggests, thanks to that easy schedule throughout the regular season, they’ll win here with ease. This will be a low-scoring gam,e but the Patriots will be able to score on this defense, even if it’s just two TDs. Whereas I’m struggling to see Jarrett Stidham, the Broncos second string QB, managing to even score once with this offense.

Again, this is not so much backing the Patriots, but more my belief that the Broncos simply won’t be able to find the endzone at all. I love what the Broncos are about, but without Nix, I’m not sure they’ll be able to put up the numbers to hang with the Patriots. This wasn’t a top 10 offense, per DVOA, even with Nix; take him out of the equation and they’ll have serious problems.

As I said above, I’m expecting this to be a very low-scoring game. I could see the Broncos getting one, maybe two field goals in the first half of the game, but unless their defense either scores on an interception or puts the team in incredible field position, I can’t back Stidham at all. Whereas this Patriots offense ranked top three in DVOA in the regular season and is top in EPA per play. They’ll find the endzone and likely get a field goal too, at the very least.

When Rhamondre Stevenson was out injured, it looked like TreVeyon Henderson had stolen his backfield, but since returning to the field, we’ve seen the veteran slowly eat back carries, and now, in crunch time, overtake his rookie rival for carries.

Stevenson isn’t as dynamic as Henderson and is unlikely to rip off huge runs, but he’s more consistent and safer between the tackles. I’m loving his alternate line for this game, which would see him rush for 40+ yards. He’s managed that in seven of eight games since returning from injury in Week 12, and the only exception was his comeback game, in which he only carried the ball six times. If the Patriots hold a lead, which they will have, then there’s no better man to grind out the clock with than Stevenson.

It’s such a shame that the Nix injury has robbed us of what could have been a classic AFC Championship game. One thing we still have is the matchup between a great offense and a sensational defense, something that should be a great watch. As a fan of defensive football, this Broncos D is a great watch, and Nik Bonitto is one of their stars.

The 26-year old has followed up his great 2024 season with an even better 2025, and he’ll continue that here. He’s had 15 sacks this season, and his sack and forced fumble on Josh Allen in the Divisional Round really showed his class. Number 15 is a serious player; he will cause the Patriots' left edge problems on Sunday, and I want to back him to add another sack to his incredible tally this year.