Going with the goals angle in this one seems the correct move. Neither team can qualify, so this is a total dead rubber. Often, these can go either way in terms of desire and goals scored, but given Tottenham’s record in the competition to this point, I see it as a chance for two relaxed teams to play open football against each other.

It is clear that Cheltenham have no care for this tournament this season. They haven’t scored in either of the other group games. Still, they have started life under Steve Cotterill really well in League Two, and even though this match has no obvious impact on their season, its most important function may serve as a retainer of the momentum. Cotterill will want to see the early form of his tenure continue here.

Tottenham have seen the goals fly in in this competition. They drew 4-4 with Bristol Rovers, then lost 2-6 against Plymouth as well, so an eight-goal per match average so far. However, this is not totally unusual for Tottenham; they have scored the second-highest number of goals in PL2, 20 from eight matches, but also conceded 14. Their 34 goal total in their PL2 matches is matched only by Leicester City’s U21 side, so it is clearly a team who are used to seeing the ball going over either goal line.

This bet is relying a little more on the trends that spell out how badly the U21 teams are doing at getting a result at their senior hosts so far this season.

As mentioned above, the senior team have won 70% of all matches against the Academy sides, and almost all of these have come with over 2.5 goals being scored as well.

This seems to fit this fixture well. There is nothing riding on this game; Orient are through to the next round and Villa are out, but Villa have been totally outclassed in their two matches in this competition so far, losing both matches 2-4 to Crawley and Peterborough respectively.

Obviously, these teams have already also been beaten by Orient, which, as long as Orient take this match with a degree of seriousness, puts them a number of levels above this young Villa side.

Villa have drawn 3-3 with Sunderland and lost 0-1 to West Ham in PL2, both teams who below Aston Villa in the table when they played them.

There is something riding on this match. Both teams are sitting on three points, West Ham have won one and lost one so far, whilst Swindon have won their only match in the competition so far to also sit on three points in the group.

It would be fair to say that West Ham’s matches in the competition have been highly eventful. A remarkable 5-1 victory at MK Dons and then a 1-3 defeat at Reading makes it difficult to work out what their level is. We can suggest that they have a high likelihood of following those trends discussed above, though, with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals landing in both matches. To add fuel to that fire, they recently drew 3-3 with Sutton United in the National League Cup.

Swindon had a very rare 0-0 at the weekend, but it seemed like there was a real emphasis on tightening things up and getting a result on the day. This is not Swindon’s usual style; they are one of the most attacking teams in League Two, and they are third for shots on target and sixth for big chances created in the league. Whilst we are unlikely to see Swindon’s best team here, the philosophy should be likely to go back to that attacking one in this tournament. They had a ding-dong battle with Reading in the opening match, which ended 3-2; this could be similar.

In this fixture there is some game state involved which makes me keen to follow the trend of the home team winning.

Chelsea have already lost both EFL Trophy matches this season, and quite comprehensively. They lost 0-3 at Northampton and 1-3 at Shrewsbury, so they are already out and have nothing to play for here.

Walsall’s league form has been poor of late, but they still currently top the League Two table. They should be looking at this fixture in particular as one that they can target for a confidence boost. If they win this match, then they are highly likely to progress to the knockout phase as well, so they should have some motivation to go for it.

There is some head-to-head history between these two in this tournament. It is a bit old, with their two meetings coming in 2019 and 2020, but Walsall have won 3-2, and then the other fixture ended 1-1.