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Fiorentina v Napoli Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Fiorentina v Napoli Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Wednesday 10 September, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

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Fiorentina v Napoli Quick Preview Tips
  • Fiorentina v Napoli
  • Serie A
  • 19:45
2 Selections @ 2.85

Napoli to Win

Having already registered back-to-back wins to kick off their season, Napoli seem to have been generously priced to claim all three points against Fiorentina.

Saturday’s visitors have looked typically well drilled in their opening matches, keeping clean sheets in both and reducing their opponents to very few chances. At the other end, Kevin De Bruyne hit the ground running with a goal, and given the opportunity to pull ahead of Inter Milan and Juventus, who face each other, I struggle to see Napoli slipping up against a Fiorentina outfit yet to record a league win.

Over 1.5 Goals

My double also consists of backing over 1.5 goals to be scored, following in the footsteps of the last five meetings between these sides, which all produced three or more goals.

Fiorentina’s two league games so far have produced a combined 4.9 expected goals, although their lack of a clinical edge prevented this selection from prevailing in one of the two. La Viola’s two games in the Europa Conference League qualifiers have also been enticing affairs, finishing 3-2 and 3-0 in favour of Fiorentina.

Napoli’s fixtures have been somewhat more modest, but I’m pretty confident in attributing the bulk of that to the nature of their opposition in Sassuolo and Cagliari - two sides set up more to frustrate than to apply pressure.

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Fiorentina have looked shaky and are still chasing their first win, while Napoli arrive with two victories and clean sheets in both.

  • Napoli have kicked off their season with back-to-back wins, meanwhile Fiorentina have recorded consecutive draws.

  • Napoli are unbeaten across their last four meetings with Fiorentina, winning three and drawing the remainder.

  • Each of the last five showings of this fixture have produced over 2.5 goals.


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🟣 Pioli Under Pressure to Recover from Poor Start

It’s been a turbulent start to the season for Stefano Pioli’s Fiorentina, whose consecutive draws have done little to inspire confidence surrounding the season ahead.

That said, their most recent display against Torino was definitely a step up from what we saw during their curtain-raiser. Last time out, Fiorentina dominated 55% of possession and were able to rack up 1.74 xG, although just 0.58 of that came from open play.

That included what might be the worst miss I’ve ever seen as Moise Kean scuppered a chance worth 0.98 xG by heading a goal-bound shot over the bar (seriously - if you haven’t already seen it, do yourself a favour and look it up, trust me).

Still, the bigger picture is clear - if Fiorentina hope to mount any serious push for the European places, they’re going to have to find a different gear entirely.


🔵 Napoli Keep Winning in Routine Fashion

It’s been comparatively much more straightforward for Napoli, who opened their season with a 2-0 victory v Sassuolo, and followed it up with a 1-0 win against Cagliari.

In all honesty, neither match was a particularly great watch, and Conte’s men left a lot to be desired offensively, although they did deserve both wins and came under very little pressure at the other end.

They cut it particularly fine last time round, relying on a 95th-minute Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa winner to claim the three points against Cagliari.

The real talking point, though, has been Antonio Conte’s attempts to build a midfield that accommodates De Bruyne. While the Belgian adds plenty in possession, he doesn’t provide the defensive steel Conte usually demands from that area of the pitch.

In my view, that’s where the game will be won or lost. If Napoli are overrun centrally, Fiorentina have a route in; but if Conte’s men can dictate play as they did against Sassuolo, another comfortable win feels very much on the cards.


📊 Fiorentina v Napoli H2H

Napoli came out on top in the most recent clash between these sides, back in March, edging a 2-1 win in Naples. The hosts were by far the stronger side on that occasion, restricting their opponents to just seven shots and generating 2.85 xG to Fiorentina’s 1.13.

Earlier that season, Napoli were dominant in Florence, running out 3-0 winners in a very comfortable display. That result extended their unbeaten streak in this fixture to four games, having collected three victories, with only one ending level.

It’s also worth mentioning that each of the last five showings have produced over 2.5 goals, so we can hope for more of the same in that respect.


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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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