Fiorentina v Napoli Bet Builder Quick Tips & Preview

Oliver Shaw
Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.
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- Fiorentina v Napoli
- Serie A
- 19:45
Fiorentina have looked shaky and are still chasing their first win, while Napoli arrive with two victories and clean sheets in both.
Napoli have kicked off their season with back-to-back wins, meanwhile Fiorentina have recorded consecutive draws.
Napoli are unbeaten across their last four meetings with Fiorentina, winning three and drawing the remainder.
Each of the last five showings of this fixture have produced over 2.5 goals.
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🟣 Pioli Under Pressure to Recover from Poor Start
It’s been a turbulent start to the season for Stefano Pioli’s Fiorentina, whose consecutive draws have done little to inspire confidence surrounding the season ahead.
That said, their most recent display against Torino was definitely a step up from what we saw during their curtain-raiser. Last time out, Fiorentina dominated 55% of possession and were able to rack up 1.74 xG, although just 0.58 of that came from open play.
That included what might be the worst miss I’ve ever seen as Moise Kean scuppered a chance worth 0.98 xG by heading a goal-bound shot over the bar (seriously - if you haven’t already seen it, do yourself a favour and look it up, trust me).
Still, the bigger picture is clear - if Fiorentina hope to mount any serious push for the European places, they’re going to have to find a different gear entirely.
🔵 Napoli Keep Winning in Routine Fashion
It’s been comparatively much more straightforward for Napoli, who opened their season with a 2-0 victory v Sassuolo, and followed it up with a 1-0 win against Cagliari.
In all honesty, neither match was a particularly great watch, and Conte’s men left a lot to be desired offensively, although they did deserve both wins and came under very little pressure at the other end.
They cut it particularly fine last time round, relying on a 95th-minute Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa winner to claim the three points against Cagliari.
The real talking point, though, has been Antonio Conte’s attempts to build a midfield that accommodates De Bruyne. While the Belgian adds plenty in possession, he doesn’t provide the defensive steel Conte usually demands from that area of the pitch.
In my view, that’s where the game will be won or lost. If Napoli are overrun centrally, Fiorentina have a route in; but if Conte’s men can dictate play as they did against Sassuolo, another comfortable win feels very much on the cards.
📊 Fiorentina v Napoli H2H
Napoli came out on top in the most recent clash between these sides, back in March, edging a 2-1 win in Naples. The hosts were by far the stronger side on that occasion, restricting their opponents to just seven shots and generating 2.85 xG to Fiorentina’s 1.13.
Earlier that season, Napoli were dominant in Florence, running out 3-0 winners in a very comfortable display. That result extended their unbeaten streak in this fixture to four games, having collected three victories, with only one ending level.
It’s also worth mentioning that each of the last five showings have produced over 2.5 goals, so we can hope for more of the same in that respect.
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