Both teams have seen BTTS in their last three in all competitions - including FA Cup ties against lower tier opponents. Leeds allowing Derby to score and Fulham conceding to Middlesbrough.

This selection has landed in the last eight at Elland Road, with Leeds’ home matches have been particularly open

Daniel Farke’s side have shown clear improvement going forward, but they remain vulnerable defensively, as shown by conceding four goals in their most recent outing away to Newcastle. 

Fulham’s consistency in front of goal further strengthens this selection. The Cottagers have scored in each of their last 10 Premier League matches, finding the net 18 times in that run, and they’ve opened the scoring in seven of those games. 

Away from home, Fulham have scored exactly once in seven of their last 10 league trips, a return that is often enough to land this market given Leeds’ strong home scoring record.

Head-to-head trends also point towards goals for both sides. The last two meetings at Elland Road have seen both teams score an average of six goals per game. Fulham have won their last three league meetings with Leeds, while Leeds have not lost consecutive home league games against the Cottagers, suggesting the hosts are likely to respond. 

Leeds have been consistently proactive at Elland Road, where Farke’s side have shown little fear against top-level opposition. In their last five home league matches, Leeds are averaging an impressive 5.2 shots on target per game. 

That run includes fixtures against elite sides such as Manchester United, Liverpool and Chelsea, yet Leeds not only tested goalkeepers regularly but also converted those chances into 12 goals across those five games. 

Those numbers highlight a team that plays on the front foot at home, pressing high, committing bodies forward and regularly working shooting opportunities in and around the penalty area.

Fulham’s away defensive record also points towards Leeds reaching this line. Silva’s side have conceded an average of four shots on target across their last five away league matches, suggesting opponents are still able to test their goalkeeper despite Fulham’s strong overall form. 

With both teams expected to play positively and Leeds unlikely to sit back in front of their own fans, the hosts should generate enough attacking volume to clear the over 2.5 shots on target line with room to spare.

After a slow start to his Leeds career, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has found his rhythm in the Premier League. Having scored just once in his first 10 appearances, he has since netted eight goals in his last nine matches. 

That scoring run has naturally translated into regular attempts on target, particularly at Elland Road, where he has scored in each of his last four league appearances and remains Leeds’ primary focal point in the final third.

Leeds’ style also supports this selection. Farke’s side have been proactive at home, applying sustained pressure and usually playing to the forward’s strength by playing wide and putting in a number of crosses. With creative support from midfield, notably Anton Stach who one of the league’s most productive chance creators, Calvert-Lewin is consistently supplied with opportunities inside the penalty area, increasing the likelihood of him testing the goalkeeper at least once.

Fulham’s defensive profile further boosts the case. While Marco Silva’s side are in good form, they rarely shut opponents out completely and have conceded 17 goals in 10 away games this season. Given Calvert-Lewin’s recent goal involvement, his strong home form and Leeds’ attacking intent, expecting him to hit the target at least once is a well-supported and realistic betting angle.

Harry Wilson is enjoying one of the most productive and confident spells of his Premier League career. The Welsh winger arrives in this fixture in excellent form, having scored in each of his last three games in all competitions. 

That scoring streak has clearly boosted his confidence, and it’s reflected in his increasing willingness to shoot whenever space opens up around the edge of the box. Rather than deferring responsibility, Wilson has been taking the initiative, regularly looking to test goalkeepers from both open play and set-piece situations.

The underlying numbers strongly support this bet. In Fulham’s most recent Premier League outing against Chelsea, Wilson attempted a remarkable eight shots, which shows how central he was to their attacking threat. 

Even in the game before that against Liverpool, one of the league’s most defensively robust sides recently, he still managed three attempts. Those figures highlight a player who is far from shot-shy, regardless of the calibre of opposition.

Match conditions also favour another active shooting display. Leeds’ home games have consistently been open. That openness often allows attacking midfielders and wide players time and space to get shots away, particularly in transition. With Leeds expected to play on the front foot at home, Fulham should find opportunities to counter, a scenario should allow suits Wilson to register two or more shots.