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Burnley v Liverpool
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Kick Off: Tuesday 26th December at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Amazon Prime UK
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The penultimate game we are treated to on Boxing Day sees Burnley host Liverpool at Turf Moor. Vincent Kompany’s Burnley side have struggled to find their feet in the Premier League, currently sitting in the drop zone in the table despite a 2-0 win at Craven Cottage on Saturday.
Last season Burnley relied on their attacking strength to dominate the Championship, scoring a total of 87 goals. However, this season Burnley have had one of the worst attacking records in the league, scoring an average of exactly 1.00 goals per game.
They story is the opposite for Liverpool, who look as though they are back to their best form. Klopp’s men are currently looking to put in a serious challenge for the title this season, especially given City’s recently poor run of form.
This article will break down all the major stats behind this game, using information from the Burnley v Liverpool Cheat Sheet. If you like any of the selections, why not add them into your Burnley v Liverpool Boxing Day bet builder?
Burnley v Liverpool Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Burnley v Liverpool match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match stats: Liverpool expected to dominate Burnley
Liverpool have been impressive this season, putting in some great performances. Perhaps their most impressive game so far was their 4-3 victory against Fulham, scoring twice in the space of two minutes to comeback from 2-3 down in the dying embers of the game.
Burnley are predicted to set up in their standard 4-4-2 formation, but may well form a more defensive 5-4-1 formation to try and keep Liverpool’s attack at bay. The extra cover in the wide positions will attempt to slow down the talent on Liverpool’s wings, namely Luis Diaz and Mohamed Salah.
Liverpool have historically dominated this fixture, winning 10 out of the 14 games played to date. Given the current form of both teams, it is likely they will do the same here. In fact, Liverpool are worth considering for the handicap markets. The prediction “Liverpool (-1.0)” simply needs Liverpool to win by two or more goals to land. Think of it as saying Liverpool start one goal down.
Predictions:
⚽ Liverpool to win @ 1.33
⚽ Liverpool (-1 handicap) @ 2.0
🥅 Goalscorer stats: Plenty of candidates for Liverpool goals
Salah is the most likely player to score against Burnley. He has been outstanding this season, with 18 goal contributions (11 goals & seven assists); the most of any Liverpool player and the most in the league. He is also down to take Liverpool’s penalties, only increasing the likelihood of him scoring.
Another player to watch is Darwin Nunez. Nunez has nine goal contributions so far, but this could be higher. He takes one of the highest shots per game of any Premier League striker, 4.46, hitting the target on average 1.71 times per 90. He is likely to begin converting more of these chances, and given Burnley’s weak defensive record, this could be the turning point for Nunez.
Finally, Dominik Szoboszlai in midfield poses a serious goal threat. Since his transfer in the summer, Szoboszlai has earned himself a nailed on place in Liverpool’s starting XI, and rightly so. From midfield, he has been averaging 2.03 shots and 0.57 shots on target. He has had at least a shot at goal in all of his last five league games, and a shot on target in two of those.
Predictions:
⚽ Mohamed Salah to score anytime @ 1.91
⚽ Darwin Nunez to score anytime @ 2.20
⚽ Dominik Szoboszlai to score anytime @ 5.00
🛑 Fouls stats: Burnley are on a hot fouling streak
Perhaps one of the stand out names for a foul or a booking for this fixture is Sander Berge, one of Burnley’s central midfield players. He has been averaging 1.45 fouls committed per game so far this season, and has picked up three cards in the process. In fact, he has committed at least one foul in five of his last five outings.
It is likely he will be defending against Gravenberch or Szoboszlai in a tough midfield battle. Both Liverpool players average high numbers of fouls won, 1.34 and 1.23 per 90 respectively.
Another likely candidate for Burnley is their skipper, Josh Brownhill. He has been averaging 1.17 fouls per game this season, and will be involved in the action against Liverpool. He often plays a big role in Burnley’s defence, providing cover from central midfield and therefore exposing him to most of Liverpool’s team. He committed at least one foul in the last two times he played against Liverpool.
Predictions:
⚽ Sander Berge to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.33
⚽ Sander Berge to commit 2+ fouls @ 2.80
⚽Josh Brownhill to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.8
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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