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Burnley v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Burnley v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 12 September, 20253 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

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The Premier League champions travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley, hoping to make it four wins from four at the start of the season.

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Burnley v Liverpool Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Burnley v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
4 Selections @ 3.17

Hugo Ekitike to have 1+ Shots on Target

Alexander Isak could be in line to feature here, but it appears unlikely he'll start, given that he's yet to kick a ball in the Premier League this term.

It would be hard for Arne Slot to drop Ekitike straight away following his quality performances for the Reds so far. He’s scored two goals and provided an assist across his three Premier League appearances. He’s had five shots across those games (1.95 per 90) with three of those attempts finding the target (1.17 per 90).

Ekitike averaged 4.08 shots per 90 and 1.68 shots on target per 90 across his 33 appearances in the Bundesliga last season. More than half of those appearances were alongside Omar Marmoush, who stole most of the headlines for the German side. 

Ekitike is more than capable of playing alongside Isak, and I think the two will complement each other quite well. I also don’t think that Isak’s presence should harm Ekitike’s shot rate too much, with the 23-year-old previously showing that he can play with a partner successfully.

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Ibrahima Konate to Commit 1+ Fouls

Konate hasn’t been at his best so far this season. He was a bit better against Arsenal in controlling the threat of Viktor Gyokeres but he has looked a little shaky in the other Premier League matches so far.

This could be due to the fact that Konate is reportedly inching closer to a move to Real Madrid in the summer, following the path that Trent Alexander-Arnold took just a few months ago.

Konate has committed three fouls across his three Premier League appearances so far this season and should be in the limelight to commit a foul again here, as Burnley’s main threat will come in transition.

Liverpool’s defensive line will push up quite high here as most of the game is played in Burnley’s half. This will leave Konate and the rest of the Liverpool backline a little exposed to the threat that the Clarets will pose on the counter-attack. 

Konate committed 27 fouls across his 30 Premier League starts last season (0.95 per 90), which is a solid record for a centre back and much higher than Virgil van Dijk’s foul average from last season. This also tells us that Konate is more likely to engage in duels with opposition attackers than his centre-back partner.

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Burnley Over 1.5 Cards

Burnley have picked up five yellow cards in the Premier League so far this season, with all five of those cautions coming in the last 10 minutes of the game against Manchester United last time out.

This is a pretty unique situation, but I do expect Burnley’s card and foul count to steadily rise and become more consistent as the season progresses. This is because the newly promoted sides almost always end up in the higher ranks of those metrics.

Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich all finished in the top six in the Premier League when it came to yellow cards last season, with the Saints featuring in the top three. Frustration will be natural for a side like Burnley here as they are starved of the ball, and probably punished pretty harshly by the best attacking setup in the Premier League. 

Burnley picked up 82 yellow cards in the Championship last season (1.78 per 90).

Liverpool to Win

Liverpool have the attacking quality to score quite a few goals here and I can’t see Burnley being able to match that scoring power at Turf Moor. Liverpool have won all three of their Premier League matches so far, recording victories over Bournemouth, Newcastle and Arsenal. 

Liverpool boasted the best away record of any side in the Premier League last season. They won 11 of their 19 matches and scored an incredible 44 goals - way more than any other side in the division.

Remarkably, they may even be able to eclipse that total on the road from last season with the attacking additions they’ve brought into the squad. The likes of Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz can use this game as an opportunity to kickstart their Liverpool careers.

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Burnley v Liverpool Best Longshot Bets
  • Burnley v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 14:00
3 Selections @ 11.23

Florian Wirtz to Score or Assist

Florian Wirtz has attracted some criticism for his early performances in a Liverpool shirt, but I do think casting judgment on his signing at this point is a little unfair. He was always going to take some time to adapt to the intensity of the Premier League, and I think he’ll be able to make more of the opportunities that fall his way here.

Wirtz may not look like he influences the game that much, but this is more due to the way he plays rather than laziness.

Wirtz is quite a casual player. What I mean by this is that he has the demeanour of a player like Mesut Ozil or Kai Havertz, where he can look like he isn’t working that hard or doing much to impact proceedings, but is actually moving more than most players on the pitch. 

We don’t really appreciate these players in the Premier League, as it is a league based on intensity and running power, of which Wirtz has plenty, but these aren’t obvious traits in his game. 

He’s had four shots and created four chances across his three Premier League appearances so far, which are metrics that show that Wirtz is doing the right actions; he just needs a bit of luck to fall his way. Wirtz recorded 30 goal contributions across his 45 appearances in all competitions for Bayer Leverkusen last season.

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Josh Laurent to be Shown a Card

Josh Laurent was shown a yellow card in his short appearance from the bench against Manchester United last time out in a flurry of cards received by the Clarets in extra time at Old Trafford.

Laurent collected seven yellow cards across his 28 starts in the Championship last season and will have his work cut out for him here against the quality of Florian Wirtz. 

Wirtz will be able to test Laurent and the rest of the Burnley midfield with his ability to drive through central areas. Wirtz averaged 3.13 successful dribbles per 90 and 1.49 fouls won per 90 in the Bundesliga last season.

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Liverpool to Commit 10+ Fouls

This may not be the first pick that comes to your mind when looking at this game but Liverpool are a very aggressive side off the ball and regularly end up in double digits for fouls.

Liverpool committed 15 fouls against Newcastle a few weeks ago in their only away game of the season so far. That fixture did have some wider circumstances which added to the tension in the game, but it still shows the high foul counts that the Reds can reach.

Arne Slot’s side averaged 11.7 fouls committed per game in the Premier League last season. Fouls will be invaluable to Burnley here as they’re expected to be under constant pressure by Liverpool. Every free kick will bring the home side some relief and also create opportunities for direct balls into the box, which is an increasingly common trend in the Premier League.

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📂 Burnley v Liverpool Cheat Sheet

Cheat Sheet pending...

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📈 Burnley v Liverpool Form & Tactics

Burnley have done okay so far. Their win against Sunderland in Gameweek 2 was crucial; that was an early six-pointer in the relegation battle and could end up being really valuable at the end of the season.

They have put in valiant performances against Tottenham and Manchester United on the road so far without coming away with anything points-wise. I do think that the three promoted sides have a bit more about them this season. Burnley are quite defensively-minded, which may end up being a great benefit to them this season.

When it comes to individual players, Burnley have quite a few players that would smash it in the Championship, but need a little more development to play regularly in the Premier League. Like the other two promoted sides, Burnley’s main issue will be finding a consistent stream of goals this season.

Liverpool have made a perfect start to the season in terms of results, but their performances reveal some cracks in the armour - particularly at the back. Liverpool have conceded 2+ goals in two of their three Premier League matches so far, which shows that they can be got at.

That shouldn’t be the case here, though. Liverpool won all three of their games on the road against the newly promoted sides last season, so they have the quality to counter any marginal threat that Burnley will pose here.

Arne Slot is expected to hand a debut to Alexander Isak at some point in this game. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him start on the bench, seeing as he hasn’t played a proper game in the Premier League this season and may take a week or two to get up to speed again. 


🏁 Ref Watch

Michael Oliver

Fouls pg

Yellows pg

Reds pg

Pens pg

22.21

3.23

0.14

0.31

Per game stats from Oliver's 402 career Premier League games.


📊 Burnley v Liverpool Key Stats

  • Burnley have scored four goals across their three Premier League matches so far this season.

  • Burnley didn’t concede more than two goals in a game throughout the entire Championship season - they’ve already conceded 3+ goals in two of their three games so far.

  • Burnley’s latest addition to the squad came in the form of Florentino Luis from Benfica.

  • Liverpool scored 44 goals across their 19 away matches last season, more than any other side in the Premier League.

  • Liverpool have scored eight goals across their three Premier League matches so far.

  • Liverpool’s clean sheet against Arsenal was the first time they’ve kept a clean sheet in 13 matches across all competitions.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Keep up with our Football Betting Tips, Accumulator Tips, and Gem Bets, as well as Premier League Predictions for this weekend, on Andy's Bet Club.

This Burnley v Liverpool Gem Bet offers great value. We've also got plenty of other content for this weekend's fixtures, including a Manchester Derby Goalscorer Double, Man City v Man United Bet Builder Tips, Southampton v Portsmouth Bet Builder Tips, and Quick Tips for St Pauli v Augsburg, AC Milan v Bologna, and Barcelona v Valencia.

The Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer are two of the best on the market currently. You can take a look at some additional New Bookmaker Offers here.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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