Bolivia had it worse than anyone else having to face Brazil and Argentina in their opening two matches of the campaign. However, their was a lot of optimism around hosting the holders due to their extreme altitude advantage. Yet despite this, reckless behaviour saw Gabriel Villamil substituted in the first half due to collecting an early yellow. However, he wasn’t the main risk. Roberto Fernandez picked up two yellows in the first half and within a blink of the eye, Argentina led. The match finished 3-0 and Bolivian fans were not impressed once again with manager Gustava Costas.

Since his appointment in 2022, he’s won just one match – a friendly against Saudi Arabia. They’ve lost four of their last five matches, which includes a 1-0 defeat to Ecuador. His old school style of play doesn’t effectively utilise the conditions. There’s no pressing or intent in and out of possession.

To make matters worse, Ecuador play at high altitude themselves, and so there’s no real home advantage in that area. Ecuador play their home games in Quito, which is over 9,000ft above sea level.

We’ve seen in the Copa Libertadores qualifiers this season how Ecuadorian teams thrive in La Paz. El Nacional, a team with no foreign players, comfortably beat Always Ready 5-1.

Back to the national scene, Ecuador have started strongly. They managed to hold Argentina in Buenos Aires – only for a magical moment from Lionel Messi to undo them. Then they came back from behind to beat Uruguay in Quito. Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo and midfielder Kendry Paez worked extremely well together, while Enner Valencia continues to show no signs of slowing down in leading the line. On paper, Ecuador are far superior.

The home atmosphere will be intimidating, and it will be hot. However, Ecuador will be more equipped than people realise. It’s also worth adding Ecuador have won their last five head to heads, including one in La Paz. The drift to 1.75 has been generous, and it’s one very much worth punting on.