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Ipswich v Norwich
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Kick Off: Saturday 16th December at 12:30
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Competition: Championship
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Football
The EFL gets underway this weekend with the East Anglia derby, and our expert has taken a look at some of the best options for a bet builder for this game. Our football coverage this week includes EFL betting tips and EFL accumulator tips. That’s far from everything though, with Andy’s Bet Club containing a wide variety of other football tips and expert betting predictions to help you craft yourself a winner this weekend.
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The East Anglian derby returns to the Championship for the first time since 2019 and excitement is building.
The pre-season expectations of the two clubs have probably swapped over by this stage with the Tractor Boys looking set for the automatic promotion and title race and the Canaries hoping for a play-off berth at best.
Kieran McKenna has managed to achieve this success mostly built upon the players that he had with him in League One, an excellent coaching achievement. Norwich are still in receipt of Premier League parachute payments and changed their approach to recruitment this summer in the hope of an improved outcome, the early signs aren’t that encouraging but the last couple of matches have been better.
Ipswich haven’t actually won a derby since 2009 so it has been a long time for Tractor Boys fans. Norwich have held the upper hand between the clubs in recent years, often two leagues apart from their nearest main rivals, but the tables appear to finally be turning in the blue direction again.
Derby games are always of great interest for a bet builder. We have analysed the numbers and noted the trends in four particular areas, and produced some predictions to combine in a bet builder if you so wish to do so.
Ipswich v Norwich Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
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You can find Ipswich v Norwich match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off.
⚽ Match stats: Ipswich dominant in the league data
What Ipswich have been able to do so far this season has been nothing short of sensational. If it wasn’t for an equally dominant start by Leicester City, both teams are up there for the best ever start to a campaign with 51 and 52 points respectively after 21 matches, then they would be well clear in the title race.
It isn’t just the results themselves that are impressive though. Ipswich are top of the league for goals scored by a fair distance, they also top the shots on target metric, and they are 2nd for overall xG created. In other words, they are probably the best performing attacking unit in the league, and all with players that were in League One last season.
Ipswich aren’t bulletproof though. Their defensive data is still good, but they sit at the top of the midtable pack for xG conceded and goals conceded.
The question is, can Norwich take advantage?
The return of Ashley Barnes has helped Norwich to re-establish a stronger base to build from. Josh Sargent has been a big miss for the Canaries as well, and hopes are that the American will return soon as well. Adam Idah has popped up with big goals recently, and, in general, it is not the attacking side of the game that has let Norwich down this season.
From a defensive point of view Wagner can again point to the injuries of Ben Gibson and Grant Hanley as a big issue, but there are also some structural issues at play. There is no way that Norwich should be 23rd in the Championship for goals conceded or 21st for xG conceded.
All of the data points towards goals here, and though derby matches can be tight and tense affairs, the make up of the teams is such that it is difficult to see Norwich in particular keeping Ipswich out. Norwich also have the capacity to hurt Ipswich in return so there are a few options open for the bet builder.
Predictions:
🏆 Ipswich to win @ 1.57
🥅 Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1.74
🎯 Shooting stats: Chaplin the key man but could midfielders hold the value?
We have established already that both teams are high volume attacking sides, so the shot markets should be of considerable interest in a bet builder.
Conor Chaplin is the main shot monster on the field. The former Barnsley man plays just off the main forward and picks up free space on the edge of the box. This allows him to be found in dangerous spaces and this has lead to Chaplin averaging over 4 shots a match in the Championship. However, he is also well found in the market.
Nathan Broadhead is a potentially more value alternative to Chaplin. The Everton youth product is second in the Ipswich ranks for shots, at 3.38 per 90, and is backable for 3 or more shots.
However, the best value could lie in central midfield. Massimo Luongo and Sam Morsy tend to rotate roles fairly freely and Morsy’s goal in midweek demonstrates that the Egyptian international is able to get forward effectively. Whilst their shot records are obviously much lower than the forwards’ they are also easier to back at the shorter lines.
For Norwich, their South American midfield imports are the best value. Marcelino Nunez is almost guaranteed to not play 90 minutes here, but he’s making the most of his minutes by averaging 3.5 shots per 90, so his prices look interesting. Gabriel Sara is odds against for two shots in the market, he should be on free-kicks as well so that could be great value.
Predictions:
🚀 Sam Morsy to have 2+ shots @ 1.50
🚀 Nathan Broadhead to have 2+ shots @ 1.44
🚀 Marcelino Nunez to have 2+ shots @ 1.73
🚀 Gabriel Sara to have 2+ shots @ 2.37
🚩 Corners stats: Ipswich correctly favoured in the match bet market
There is very little between the sides over the course of the season in the number of corners that they have had.
Where the difference comes in is whether the teams are at home or away. Both sides have been relative homers in this way as both have dominated the corner count in their home matches.
For this match, Ipswich average 6.6 corners at home, and only concede 3.3 corners a match. This is around the same figure that Norwich also average away from home.
This makes Ipswich a sound favourite in this market.
The overall corner count goes above 8.5 corners 60% of the time for Ipswich at home and also for Norwich away. The line for this is priced correctly though.
The other option is to back Ipswich to creep over the 6.5 line. This price has a little bit of juice in it, especially if Ipswich are able to be as shot heavy and territory heavy as we suspect.
Predictions:
🚩 Ipswich corner match bet @ 1.25
🚩 Over 6.5 Ipswich corners @ 1.91
🟨 Cards stats: Luongo and Nunez the culprits
As always in a derby match, especially one so highly anticipated, there will be interest in the cards markets.
However, a roll through the records of the last 10 East Anglian derbies shows us that it has not been a card-heavy derby. There were seven in the last Norwich v Ipswich match in 2019, but the average over the last 10 derbies has been 3.5 cards per match, around the average for any given Championship match.
However, this does not mean that there aren’t options for a bet builder. There are some individual angles to follow, the best of which is Ipswich’s midfielder Massimo Luongo.
Luongo actually leads Ipswich’s foul count per 90, just slightly ahead of Sam Morsy. Morsy, though, is already on 9 yellow cards. Whilst this may be an indicator on form, it is also only one caution away from a two-match ban, and the two matches that Morsy would miss would be against Leicester and Leeds, their two most important games in this promotion race. This will surely be enough to put him off from taking any risks with his challenges.
This gives Luongo the impetus to be the leader of physicality in midfield. Also, this could mean that the Norwich midfielders get involved in the battle as well.
If starting, Marcelino Nunez could be the value for a caution. The Chilean has the highest foul per 90 minute count in the squad, and if he starts he stands a great chance of a card.
Predictions:
🟨 Massimo Luongo to be shown a card @ 2.60
🟨 Marcelino Nunez to be shown a card @ 2.87
* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
Written by an Andy verified content writer
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