What Ipswich have been able to do so far this season has been nothing short of sensational. If it wasn’t for an equally dominant start by Leicester City, both teams are up there for the best ever start to a campaign with 51 and 52 points respectively after 21 matches, then they would be well clear in the title race.

It isn’t just the results themselves that are impressive though. Ipswich are top of the league for goals scored by a fair distance, they also top the shots on target metric, and they are 2nd for overall xG created. In other words, they are probably the best performing attacking unit in the league, and all with players that were in League One last season.

Ipswich aren’t bulletproof though. Their defensive data is still good, but they sit at the top of the midtable pack for xG conceded and goals conceded.

The question is, can Norwich take advantage?

The return of Ashley Barnes has helped Norwich to re-establish a stronger base to build from. Josh Sargent has been a big miss for the Canaries as well, and hopes are that the American will return soon as well. Adam Idah has popped up with big goals recently, and, in general, it is not the attacking side of the game that has let Norwich down this season.

From a defensive point of view Wagner can again point to the injuries of Ben Gibson and Grant Hanley as a big issue, but there are also some structural issues at play. There is no way that Norwich should be 23rd in the Championship for goals conceded or 21st for xG conceded.

All of the data points towards goals here, and though derby matches can be tight and tense affairs, the make up of the teams is such that it is difficult to see Norwich in particular keeping Ipswich out. Norwich also have the capacity to hurt Ipswich in return so there are a few options open for the bet builder.

Predictions:

🏆 Ipswich to win @ 1.57

🥅 Both teams to score & over 2.5 goals @ 1.74

We have established already that both teams are high volume attacking sides, so the shot markets should be of considerable interest in a bet builder.

Conor Chaplin is the main shot monster on the field. The former Barnsley man plays just off the main forward and picks up free space on the edge of the box. This allows him to be found in dangerous spaces and this has lead to Chaplin averaging over 4 shots a match in the Championship. However, he is also well found in the market.

Nathan Broadhead is a potentially more value alternative to Chaplin. The Everton youth product is second in the Ipswich ranks for shots, at 3.38 per 90, and is backable for 3 or more shots.

However, the best value could lie in central midfield. Massimo Luongo and Sam Morsy tend to rotate roles fairly freely and Morsy’s goal in midweek demonstrates that the Egyptian international is able to get forward effectively. Whilst their shot records are obviously much lower than the forwards’ they are also easier to back at the shorter lines.

For Norwich, their South American midfield imports are the best value. Marcelino Nunez is almost guaranteed to not play 90 minutes here, but he’s making the most of his minutes by averaging 3.5 shots per 90, so his prices look interesting. Gabriel Sara is odds against for two shots in the market, he should be on free-kicks as well so that could be great value.

Predictions:

🚀 Sam Morsy to have 2+ shots @ 1.50

🚀 Nathan Broadhead to have 2+ shots @ 1.44

🚀 Marcelino Nunez to have 2+ shots @ 1.73

🚀 Gabriel Sara to have 2+ shots @ 2.37

There is very little between the sides over the course of the season in the number of corners that they have had.

Where the difference comes in is whether the teams are at home or away. Both sides have been relative homers in this way as both have dominated the corner count in their home matches.

For this match, Ipswich average 6.6 corners at home, and only concede 3.3 corners a match. This is around the same figure that Norwich also average away from home.

This makes Ipswich a sound favourite in this market.

The overall corner count goes above 8.5 corners 60% of the time for Ipswich at home and also for Norwich away. The line for this is priced correctly though.

The other option is to back Ipswich to creep over the 6.5 line. This price has a little bit of juice in it, especially if Ipswich are able to be as shot heavy and territory heavy as we suspect.

Predictions:

🚩 Ipswich corner match bet @ 1.25

🚩 Over 6.5 Ipswich corners @ 1.91