Although still unbeaten, Juventus now find themselves seven points adrift of Napoli following their 2-2 draw with Parma last time out. In that game, the xG read 2.26-1.02 in Juve’s favour, with the Bianconeri punished for failing to capitalise on their chances.

Since losing Bremer, their defence looks significantly weaker and seems to have led to Thiago Motta utilising a more attacking style of football, something that benefits this selection. This pick has been a winner in each of their last five league games, including matches against significantly stronger opposition.

Udinese, on the other hand, lost 3-2 to Venezia who were joint-bottom on just five points at the time, making it four losses in their last six for the hosts. They’ve exceeded their expected points by 4.81 this season, in addition to benefiting from three wins against sides who have gone down to 10-men. The head-to-head form certainly doesn’t flatter them, with this selection winning in seven of the last eight and sixteen of the last eighteen.

Going forward Monza have been, by some distance, the least inventive outfit in Serie A, racking up just 4.96 open-play xG across their 10 games this season. Only on two occasions have Monza accumulated over 1 xG in a match, despite their perhaps unmerited season average of one goal per game.

They come up against Milan who have conceded the fifth fewest goals and the fourth fewest xGA of any side in the league. Although they initially looked a bit vulnerable at the start of the season, they have since sured things up, conceding just three goals in their last five league games.

Given the sides’ respective form, it’d be a huge surprise if Monza bagged twice against one of Serie A’s top-performing teams.