Italy v Moldova

Despite the qualifiers having only just begun, this clash between Italy and Moldova is likely to be conclusive with respect to the final standings in Group I.

Moldova’s World Cup prospects are already in serious jeopardy following back-to-back heavy defeats at the hands of  Norway and Poland, leaving them bottom of the group with 0 points and a goal difference of -6.

As for Italy, questions had been mounting over the Azzurri’s form and the extent to which Luciano Spalletti’s approach aligns with the squad’s identity. Those doubts were emphatically validated in Oslo, where Italy slumped to a humbling 3-0 defeat.

Given that Norway have won each of their three games, racking up an impressive goal difference of +10 in the process, it looks like a best-case scenario for Italy would be a second-place finish, as they aim to avoid missing out on the 2026 World Cup.

⭐ Italy v Moldova Predictions and Best Bets

It looks like there might have been a mild overreaction from the bookies in pricing Italy to win to nil as generously as 1.44, as they clash with the world's 154th best team (according to the FIFA rankings).

Although Italy’s form is far from encouraging, neither is Moldova’s, and you’d certainly expect the Azzurri’s quality to shine through against far weaker opposition. Moldova failed to score against Poland last time out and Norway in their opening clash, losing the games 2-0 and 5-0 respectively.

From what we’ve seen in recent years, Italy do seem to find their shooting boots when coming up against inferior opposition, and this is a selection we’ve seen come home against the likes of Israel, Malta, Albania, and even France not long ago. They'll be eager to respond after their showing in Oslo and could fire a few goals past a poor Moldova here.

🔵 Italy Continue to Flatter to Deceive

Italy come into this clash with Moldova in disarray, and the pressure on Luciano Spalletti is reaching a boiling point. Their defeat against Norway has only amplified the scrutiny, and with fears of missing a third consecutive World Cup mounting, this match is a must-win.

His appointment raised eyebrows from the outset, particularly given his preference for a back-four - a system ill-suited to Italy’s pool of defenders, who are far more comfortable in a back-three.

A run of four games without a win has further dented confidence, with the most recent of the four being the worst of all. Despite controlling 62% of possession, Italy managed to fire off just six shots against Norway. Italy could struggle if they fail to improve on their performances of late, but Moldova are weak opposition and should be there for the taking away from home.

🔴 Cracks Widen as Moldova Struggle to Keep Pace

Moldova arrive in Rome off the back of a worrying run of form, having shipped 10 goals across their last three outings, of which they’ve lost all three, including a 5-0 hammering at the hands of Norway.

There are familiar failings across the board: defensive frailty, minimal midfield control, and an attack that often fails to assert itself unless chasing the game.

Moldova’s most recent clash was a friendly against Poland, where they disappointed once more, failing to find a way onto the scoresheet and succumbing to a 2-0 defeat.

Previous to that, they came up short against Estonia, after finding themselves 2-0 down inside half an hour, largely courtesy of a red. They managed to fight back to a degree, and after Estonia later went down to 10 men themselves, fans were treated to a great watch, which ultimately ended 3-2 to Estonia.

Nonetheless, it remains three losses in three, and against a wounded Italy side, Moldova look ill-equipped to cope with Italy.

📊 Italy v Moldova Head-to-Head Key Stats

In truth, there’s very little in the way of relevant head-to-head history between these two. Italy and Moldova met just once, in a friendly match in October 2020.  On that occasion, the gulf in quality was painfully clear, as Italy cruised to a 6-0 win in Florence.

The Azzurri dominated every aspect of the game, enjoying 70% possession, registering 18 shots to Moldova’s five, and firing off nine shots on target in what was a truly ruthless display. Moldova, by contrast, offered next to nothing beyond a pair of half-openings and a solitary effort on target.

That meeting came under very different circumstances, and with both squads largely unrecognisable, it holds limited predictive value, but it serves as a reminder of what a full-strength Italy side can do against lesser-experienced opposition.

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips and World Cup 2026 Tips, we also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for the latest Gem Bets and Club World Cup Predictions on ABC this week.

For Monday's slate, we also have a Goals Algorithm Accumulator, Win Accumulator, Belgium v Wales Betting Predictions, and Belgium v Wales Bet Builder Tips, as well as Quick Preview coverage for Liechtenstein v Scotland, Estonia v Norway, Kazakhstan v North Macedonia, and Faroe Islands v Gibraltar.

When backing our tips, you'll want to be doing so on the Top Bet Builder Sites and Best UK Sports Betting Sites. We also track the best offers, such as the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and Betfair Sign Up Offer. There's a list of the latest New Bookmaker Offers here.

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.