Juventus’ record against Fiorentina is excellent. Not only have they won their last two Serie A matches against their rivals without conceding, they have also picked up victories in 11 of their last 12 home encounters with the Florence outfit.

Given that the visitors’ only two defeats in recent weeks have come against clubs chasing the Champions League, this points to another home victory, in spite of the Bianconeri’s comparatively poor level of late.

Juve have to be respected, particularly in Turin. They have lost only once this season in front of their home supporters in Serie A. Equally, though, only three of their nine home wins have come by more than a single goal. This would suggest that Fiorentina will at least keep it tight, and a price of 1.25 on the visitors with a +2 handicap looks strong value.

It was no surprise that Dusan Vlahovic and Federico Chiesa were on target for Juventus in midweek, with the pair overwhelmingly Juventus’ threats this season. Indeed, the pair account for 22 of 44 league goals.

This translates in the shooting stats. Juventus don’t manage a high number of shots on target, with Vlahovic and Chiesa the only players who are over 1 per 90 among the club’s regular starters.

To this end, Chiesa, who, like Valhovic, is lining up against his former club, offers superior value. With 1.44 shots on target per 90, he has worked the keeper in seven of his last nine club matches.

Juventus only managed 4 shots of any kind in their 1-0 win over the Viola in November, performing something of a smash-and-grab, the type of which would have deeply satisfied the pragmatic Allegri.

Fiorentina carried more of a threat that day but hit the target with only 4 of their 25 efforts. These all came from the wide areas, with Nicolas Gonzalez leading the way with two. The Argentine offers 1.25 efforts on target per 90 and is a nice price at 1.67.

With a shot on target in each of his last five matches in which he has played more than a half, he provides arguably the best value of anyone on the park to get an effort on target in this game.

This is a game in which there is liable to be a low shot count, so backing anyone to have multiple efforts on goal will be risky.

Juventus committed 21 fouls the last time these clubs met, with left wing-back Filip Kostic a player targeted by Fiorentina. He committed six fouls in that encounter – more than 25% of the free kicks he has given away all season. Up against Nicolas Gonzalez again, he is 1.22 to commit a foul once again.

Adrien Rabiot, meanwhile, stands second among Juventus’ likely starters in terms of giving away a big volume of free kicks. The Frenchman commits 1.45 fouls per 90 and gave up four against the Viola last time out. His price of 1.2 offers strong value for one foul and 2 on him to commit multiple crimes is also worth exploring, albeit it has been six games since he gave up multiple fouls – his longest run of the season.

Cristiano Biraghi is Fiorentina’s main criminal, giving up 1.76 fouls per 90. In his last 25 games, he has given away a free kick on 22 occasions. He did not, however, give away a free kick last time the Viola faced Juventus.

On that occasion, Rolando Mandragora was Fiorentina’s main criminal as he gave up 3 free kicks – one of three occasions he has done so this season. The defensive midfielder has committed a foul in each of his last four matches so his price of 1.25 for a single free kick is value, though not as strong as Biraghi by a long shot.