Okafor is currently Leeds’ joint top scorer in the Premier League, alongside Joe Rodon and Lukas Nmecha. I personally think he’s been the most effective of the Leeds forwards so far, even though he’s been shifted out to the left hand side to accommodate the various strikers that Leeds have to choose from.

He’s had eight shots across his seven appearances in the Premier League this term (1.38 per 90), with Okafor notably being more of a threat at Elland Road. 

He scored against Tottenham at the stadium, which is where the majority of his shots have come from this season. We’re looking for Okafor to exceed his current shot average in this clash and I think there’s room for him to meet his promising shot record from last campaign.

Okafor had 14 shots across just five starts in Serie A last season (2.81 per 90). This isn’t the largest sample size, but Okafor did maintain a shot average of 2.28 across 28 appearances in the Italian top flight the season prior. 

There’s a massive disparity in the number of shots Leeds have at Elland Road compared to their away fixtures - they’ve had 10+ shots in each of their five home matches.

No side has won more fouls in the Premier League than Aston Villa this season (148 - 13.4 per game). A lot of these fouls are concentrated in the middle of the park, with Villa having players like John McGinn, Morgan Rogers and Amadou Onana all heavily contributing to Villa’s strength when it comes to winning fouls.

Longstaff has committed just five fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this season (0.57 per 90), but we can anticipate a rise in that metric here when considering how strong Villa are when it comes to winning fouls. His main opponent is likely to be Amadou Onana, as Longstaff has been playing in a slightly more advanced role since joining Leeds. Onana has won nine fouls across his seven Premier League appearances this term (1.66 per 90). 

Should Onana not start, then Longstaff is likely to be faced up by Lamare Bogarde, who has shown real moments of promise in the middle of the park for Villa - Bogarde has already won nine fouls across 293 minutes of Premier League football this season. 

I tracked Villa regularly following a European gameweek last season, just to gauge what the overall effect on the squad was by having to compete in the Champions League alongside their domestic duties. Villa routinely struggled in games following a European gameweek or international break, and a similar pattern could develop here.

Villa have had a consistent problem on the road under Unai Emery. They’ve only managed to win one of their five away matches this season, conceding five goals across these games. This isn’t the worst record, but becomes a bit more of an issue for Villa when assessing their performances on the road last season.

Villa conceded 31 goals across their 19 away matches last term (1.63 per game), which is something they have failed to address, as evidenced by their poor away record so far this season. 

Leeds can benefit here, with their games at Elland Road being crucial to their survival - Leeds have scored six goals across their five games at Elland Road this season, avoiding defeat in four of these matches. Leeds have also only failed to score in one of their five home games so far this season (v Newcastle).

Leeds have drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in four of their five home games in the Premier League this season. They’ve drawn 2+ saves from the opposition keeper in each of their last six Premier League matches, suggesting that Leeds can carry a real attacking threat here.

Emi Martinez has been reintegrated into the Aston Villa squad after a turbulent summer, in which many thought he would leave the club. He’s been forced into making 20 saves across his nine Premier League appearances this season (2.22 per 90), he’s also managed to maintain a save percentage of 74.1% across these games.

Emi Buendia was a player that I earmarked before the start of the season due to his strong performances in pre-season for Aston Villa. There’s no doubt that Buendia would have been more involved with the Villa project in recent seasons if he hadn’t picked up recurring injuries, but he now seems to have found some consistency when it comes to his fitness.

Buendia has registered five goal contributions already this season across just 429 minutes of Premier League football, earned across four starts. He’s had 15 shots (3.15 per 90) and created nine chances (1.89 per 90) across these games, suggesting that he can continue to be a threat for Aston Villa here.

Buendia is in the perfect mould of what Unai Emery wants from his wide players. Emery likes these players to tuck in quite narrow in what becomes a 4-2-2-2 shape, which then allows Villa’s fullbacks to push up the pitch. Buendia isn’t blessed with speed, but has the technical ability to make up for this, and can continue to provide for Villa.

Matty Cash is naturally quite a forward thinking fullback, and he has been platformed by his manager to continue in this role, with Villa often getting their width through the fullbacks. Villa have a lot of technical players in the middle of the park, which is useful when it comes to winning fouls and drawing out opposition sides - they then look to their outlets of Digne and Cash on either flank.

Cash has scored two goals in the Premier League this season, already eclipsing his tally from last campaign, with the 28-year-old having 11 shots across these matches (1.02 per 90). We’re looking for a rise in his averages here for this leg of the selection to land, but that does seem within reach when looking at the number of shots that Villa have taken against both Burnley (15) and Sunderland (12). 

One of the most interesting things about Cash’s shot data so far this season is the fact that all 11 of his attempts have come from outside of the area. This would suggest that it’s worth looking into backing Cash for shots from outside the box here, too.

Ollie Watkins hasn’t quite yet hit the heights of the last few seasons, with just one goal across all competitions so far this term. However, where he and Aston Villa are strong is where it comes to winning fouls - particularly in situations where Watkins is a bit more nimble and agile than his centre back opponents.

Watkins has won 12 fouls across his 11 Premier League appearances this season (1.24 per 90), and plays for a Villa side that have won 148 fouls across their 11 matches in the league this season (13.4 per game). Leeds tend to be a bit more expansive at home, so we should see situations develop where Watkins is in a few isolated duels against Bijol and Rodon.

Bijol really stands out to me as a player that could haul down Watkins on a few occasions. He’s a man mountain of a centre back and may struggle to deal with the intricacies of Watkins, when the Villa striker is able to run beyond him with his speed. Bijol has committed four fouls across his three appearances in the Premier League this season (1.37 per 90).