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Man City v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 9/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Man City v Liverpool Bet Builder Tips, 9/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 7 November, 20255 min read
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Ramis Ibrahim

Avid football writer and Premier League specialist. Meticulous eye for player prop bets across English, European and International football honed over four years in football analysis.

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Manchester City welcome Liverpool in a meeting of the two most dominant sides in English football over the last decade. City will be hoping to avenge their two 2-0 defeats to Liverpool last season having made a much stronger start to this campaign.

Liverpool have found their feet in recent weeks after a very turbulent period with back to back victories against Aston Villa and Real Madrid - with both wins coming to nil.

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Man City v Liverpool Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Man City v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
4 Selections @ 3.37

Dominik Szoboszlai to Commit 1+ Fouls

Szoboszlai has committed a foul in four of his last five Premier League appearances this season and has been one of Liverpool’s key players so far this term. He’s committed 10 fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances overall this season, working out to an average of exactly 1.00 fouls committed per 90.

Szoboszlai is also averaging 2.30 tackles per 90 in the Premier League this season, which highlights just how involved he is off the ball for Liverpool. Liverpool’s press is relentless when Szoboszlai plays, he covers more ground than any other Liverpool player and will find himself up against a midfield trio of Reijnders, Foden and Gonzalez here:

  • Foden - 1.30 fouls won p/90

  • Gonzalez - 1.29 fouls won p/90

  • Reijnders - 0.83 fouls won p90

City have notably had less of the ball this season, with their 57.3% share ranking fourth in the Premier League which highlights the shift that has occurred with this Manchester City side in terms of being more direct and physical, which can contribute to the overall intensity of this game which Liverpool should be able to match.

Szoboszlai committed two fouls in this fixture last season, and also committed a foul in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Manchester City at the Etihad.

Phil Foden 1+ Shots on Target

Pep Guardiola confidently announced that Phil Foden was ‘back’ following the 25 year old’s brace against Dortmund in the Champions League during the week. Foden’s confidence will have been boosted further by his inclusion in Thomas Tuchel’s latest England squad. Those two goals take Foden’s tally for the season to seven, moving him to within three of his 10 goal haul from last campaign.

Foden will be aiming to build on the two goals he netted against Dortmund during the week here, having also registered an assist against Bournemouth in Manchester City’s most recent Premier League assignment. Foden only had one shot in that game, but should be encouraged from his midweek performance in which he found the target on four occasions.

It’s worth noting that all four of those attempts for Foden came from outside of the area, so it may be worth exploiting markets for Foden to have a few shots from outside the box, or to find the target from outside the box. Foden’s shot on target record in the Premier League isn’t particularly standout (0.43 per 90) but he can improve on this record quickly as City’s biggest goal threat outside of Erling Haaland.

Haaland has dominated the scoring charts for City this season, with his 13 goals representing 65% of the total goals that City have scored this season. I’d argue that Foden is the next biggest goal threat in this City side, even if his current shot record doesn’t quite reflect that. Foden averaged 0.81 shots on target per 90 across his 28 Premier League appearances last season, and should be able to better that record this term now he has confidence back.

Both Teams to Score

Liverpool may have kept Real Madrid out in the Champions League during the week but this represents just one of four clean sheets they’ve managed to keep across their 16 matches in all competitions. Manchester City have scored more goals than any other side at home in the Premier League (13) and also sat top of the home scoring rankings last season (43).

This would suggest that Liverpool will be forced into a higher scoring affair with their backline unable to be trusted at the moment. City have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five matches across all competitions so Pep Guardiola’s side aren’t the most solid at the back right now either, which can lead to chances for both sides throughout this contest.

BTTS has landed in each of City’s last three matches against Swansea, Bournemouth and Dortmund. City won all of these games comfortably but the odd goal they concede will encourage Liverpool as there are still slight cracks in the City side, left behind by the continued absence of Rodri who is struggling for consistent minutes since his injury last season.

Liverpool’s five away games in the Premier League have produced 17 goals (3.4 per game) with BTTS landing in four of these matches with the exception of Liverpool’s 1-0 win over Burnley. Liverpool also scored more goals than any other side on the road in the Premier League last season with 44 across their 19 matches (2.31 per game).

Liverpool Over 1.5 Cards

Liverpool have picked up 19 yellow cards in the Premier League this season (1.9 per game) with 2+ cards landing in eight of their 10 matches - and all five of their away games this term.

Liverpool are quite an aggressive side off the ball, but that pressing structure has faltered this season with the changes made to the Liverpool squad in the summer, which can result in frustration for the Reds here. City will be able to dominate the ball as they’ve wrestled back control of matches at the Etihad again after their worst ever home form during the 24/25 campaign under Guardiola.

Manchester City have drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in six of their 10 Premier League matches this season. The referee for this game is Chris Kavanagh who has handed out 3.71 cards per game across his 14 appointments in all competitions. His all time Premier League average sits at 3.51 cards per game, but he could be tempted into a higher card count here with the magnitude of the fixture.

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Man City v Liverpool Best Longshot Bets
  • Man City v Liverpool
  • Premier League
  • 16:30
3 Selections @ 10.25

Erling Haaland to Score Anytime

Haaland has netted 13 Premier League goals across his 10 appearances in the top flight, seven goals more than the next top scorer in the Premier League. He added a further two goals in his most recent Premier League appearance against Bournemouth, as well as netting against his former club in City’s 4-1 win over Dortmund in the Champions League.

Haaland has scored 65% of City’s goals in the Premier League this season which shows just how much of the goalscoring burden falls at Haaland’s feet. There is a chance that City grow too overreliant on Haaland who has added more to his game this season which has made him even more devastating in the opposition penalty box.

Eight of Haaland’s 13 goals in the Premier League have come at the Etihad so you would expect him to have quite a few chances here, in line with City being the top scorers of any side at home in the Premier League so far this term (13). City’s next top scorer after Haaland is five players tied on one goal, so Haaland is quite clearly City’s most dangerous player in front of goal.

Dominik Szoboszlai to have 2+ Shots

I think Szoboszlai has been Liverpool’s best player so far this season with the 25 year old showing how invaluable his hard working traits are in Liverpool’s midfield.

Arne Slot’s trio of Szoboszlai, Gravenberch and Mac Allister was perfectly balanced and effective at implementing the structure that Slot wanted from his side. However, Wirtz’s presence in the squad has disrupted that structure and made it more difficult for Liverpool to control games. Szoboszlai has lined up at right back this season, but that’s unlikely to happen here given Bradley’s impressive display against Real Madrid during the week.

We can expect Szoboszlai to line up in his usual role, and his recent shot record tells the story of a player playing with real confidence at the moment. Szoboszlai had five shots against Real Madrid during the week, with four of these attempts finding the target. He also had three shots in Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Aston Villa in their most recent Premier League assignment.

Szoboszlai has had 20 shots overall in the Premier League this season (2.00 per 90). He put in a solid performance in this fixture last season, having three shots and finding the back of the net with one of these attempts. Szoboszlai also had three shots in the clash between the sides at Anfield last season.

Matheus Nunes to be Shown a Card

Nunes has surprisingly managed to develop into an effective fullback for Manchester City with Guardiola now trusting the former Wolves player to feature in games of this magnitude as a right back.

That being said, it’s still obvious at times that Nunes is not a natural fullback as displayed by the four yellow cards he received across 19 Premier League starts last season, while averaging 1.61 fouls committed per 90.

This is significant because City don’t tend to commit many fouls as a team, with Guardiola’s side ranking bottom for fouls committed per game last term. This makes Nunes a standout in this City side, and a good player to back for fouls and a card here.

He’ll be up against Cody Gakpo who has won 17 fouls across his 10 Premier League appearances this season (1.92 per 90). Gakpo should be able to test Nunes on a few occasions, knowing that his opponent is not a natural fullback and could be exposed at times.

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📂 Man City v Liverpool Cheat Sheet

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📈 Man City v Liverpool Form & Tactics

Manchester City enter this game having won their last three matches across all competitions against Swansea, Bournemouth and Dortmund. Notably, they didn’t manage to keep a clean sheet in any of these games but that’s not a true reflection of the improvement that City have made defensively this season.

City have won four of their five games at the Etihad, netting 13 goals which is the highest tally in the Premier League. They’ve conceded four goals across these games which isn’t the defensive security of a side like Arsenal, but City are unlikely to ever reach that level of defensive stubbornness with how Guardiola likes to approach games.

Liverpool’s recent recovery is promising with back to back wins against Aston Villa and Real Madrid to end a period that saw them lose six of their seven matches with their only respite coming in the form of a 5-1 win over Frankfurt in the Champions League.

Liverpool’s away record will concern Slot, they’ve lost three of their five matches on the road so far which is unrecognisable to the Liverpool we saw on the road last season with Slot’s side winning 11 of their 19 matches and boasting the best travelling record of any side in the division - Liverpool have already lost as many games on the road as they did during the entirety of last season.


📔 Man City v Liverpool Formation & Team News

City’s 4-1-4-1 structure is working more effectively this season and a lot of that success is down to the growth of Nico Gonzalez.

When Rodri got injured, it was clear that Guardiola didn’t trust any one player in that holding role on their own and that disrupted the general rhythm of City. Gonzalez has taken some time to adapt, but now is an incredibly effective Rodri dupe with the holding midfielder winning 2.59 tackles per game and winning 61.5% of his duels this term.

Gonzalez flourishing in that holding role has unlocked the rest of this City side with promising combinations emerging between the likes of Cherki, Foden and Doku in particular.

The main concern I have with this City side is how reliant they are on Haaland for goals - no other City player has scored more than one Premier League goal this season which will be something that Guardiola looks to address soon, and may also be helped by the return of Omar Marmoush from injury.

Liverpool are expected to be without Alisson again for this fixture which is naturally a big blow as he is the best keeper in the league, if not in Europe. Mamardashvilli hasn’t done too much wrong between the sticks for the Reds so far, but in a game like this which could be decided by fine margins the absence of a keeper of the calibre of Alisson could prove pivotal.

Liverpool are expected to continue with their 4-2-3-1 shape here, there have been a few instances where Slot has turned to a 4-4-2, but it’s clear this is the shape he wants to play. He does have a few headaches to solve in the middle of the park with Wirtz proving to be an awkward player to fit in the side, unless he plays out wide. Alexander Isak is also expected to continue to be on the sidelines for this clash.


📊 Man City v Liverpool Key Stats

  • Liverpool have only kept four clean sheets across their 16 matches across all competitions.

  • Manchester City have scored more goals than any other side at home this season (13).

  • Liverpool have already lost as many away games as they did throughout the entirety of last season (3).

  • Erling Haaland has scored 65% of Manchester City’s goals in the Premier League this season (13/20).


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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