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Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Week 12 of the NFL is here, and the Los Angeles Rams head to Philadelphia to face the 8-2 Eagles, in a highly anticipated game from the SoFi Stadium. We’ve got two expertly crafted a Bet Builders at 3/1 and 6/1
You can also check out our expert’s favourite data-led selections in our Sunday NFL accumulator tips.
3/1 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Bet Builder Level 1
6/1 Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Bet Builder Level 2
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Level 1 Bet Builder Tip
🏈 Demarcus Robinson Under 25 Receiving Yards
📈 Odds: 1.83
It feels like the Rams have unlimited receiver depth with guys like Robinson, Atwell, and Whittington, but the starters are back and they will lean on them in primetime. Robinson has played well this season, but with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua finally rounding into full health he has just 19 and 23 yards the past two weeks on 9 targets (3 receptions). This is despite the easier matchups and Stafford racking up nearly 600 passing yards on 73 attempts. They now face the red-hot Eagles defense that has been shutting down virtually every passing game since the bye.
After the bye no wide receivers have cleared 55 yards against the Eagles and that includes Ja’Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, Malik Nabers, Jerry Jeudy, CD Lamb, Terry McLaurin, and Brian Thomas Jr. They have also been especially tough on the outside wideouts, allowing just 6.3 yards per target. Robinson plays over 70% of his snaps on the outside and that’s a matchup we want to avoid.
🏈 Dallas Goedert 48+ Receiving Yards
📈 Odds: 1.83
Dallas Goedert is always the first guy we’re looking at when Devonta Smith goes down. Without Smith, the Eagles go from one of the most dynamic wide receiver cores in the league, to teams focusing on AJ Brown and leaving Jalen Hurts with less options. Brown is such a dynamic weapon that we expect safety help to be on him all night long, meaning that should open up some targets for the rest of the weapons. Goedert has hit this in 3 of his last 4 games if you take out the game vs Cleveland where he suffered a hamstring injury on Philadelphia’s first drive, and he should be back and fully healthy.
The Rams have been brutal defending TE’s this year allowing the 5th most yards to the position, not only is there increased target opportunity but it’s also a great matchup for TE’s. Against a team that gets pressure at a top 8 rate like the Rams, we would also expect a lot of two tight end sets for the Eagles. They will lean on Saquon Barkley, but this should also open up some great play action opportunities for Goedert to take advantage of down the field. There is no WR depth outside of Brown, making Goedert the #2 passing weapon on this team.
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Level 2 Bet Builder Tip
🏈 Cooper Kupp 90+ Receiving Yards
📈 Odds: 3.10
Cooper Kupp is one of our favorite receivers to bet on, because you always know Stafford is going to give him an opportunity to shine. Since returning from injury, Kupp boasts a 77.5 PFF receiving grade with 29 catches for 341 yards and three scores, going over 100 yards in two of the four games. He has 0 drops in that span, and continues to be the safety blanket when Matthew Stafford is in trouble. This Eagles defense is not easy, and we think Stafford will rely on his favorite target in primetime.
Cooper Kupp is the wide receiver we’re targeting in this game, despite the Eagles pass defense playing well since the bye week. While they have been strong against opposing pass catchers, Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Evans have both recorded 7+ receptions against them this season, and Kupp is definitely on that elite level that can do this in any matchup. We think people are also a little quick to overreact to rookies, and we’re not sure why we should be scared of a rookie like Cooper DeJean when he’s facing his toughest test of the season, not the other way around. The Wagles defense, and Fangio defenses’ in general are good against outside WR’s but do allow opportunities over the middle, Kupp should be the one to take advantage.
🏈 AJ Brown to Score a Touchdown
📈 Odds: 2.40
Without Devonta Smith, it feels like you need to back AJ Brown in this one. While the Eagles will definitely rely on Saquon Barkley here, he can only handle so much volume, and Brown will be the defacto alpha wide receiver in those passing situations. We were between 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown for Brown, but it’s interesting to actually get a better price tag on him scoring, despite such a high 49.5 total. Sure this is a run first team in the redzone, but the Rams know that also, and if you want to slow down the run then you have to leave AJ Brown in some 1v1 situations, which is exactly what we want here.
While Brown is on a 4-game skid without a touchdown, this Rams secondary is the perfect bounceback opportunity for one of the best redzone weapons in the league. His huge frame gives him the edge in every jump ball, but he has a rare ability to score from outside the red zone. Earlier this season we faded Jahan Dotson when he was promoted to a starting role, and the Eagles just don’t have any good wide receiver depth at all. Dotson and the rookie Wilson will gain additional snaps, but when it comes down to important red zone snaps, we really don’t think Hurts will have much trust for anyone outside of Brown.
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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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