Derby v Luton

Good Friday could become very bad indeed for one of these clubs. Luton are the ones in the most perilous position, but a win here would take them level on points with Derby.

On the other hand, John Eustace will have also circled this fixture as one that if they could win they would give them some real breathing space with only three matches left.

⭐ Derby v Luton Best Bet

➡️ Back Under 2.5 Goals with bet365 @ 1.44

18+ Gamble Responsibly | Ad

Derby come into this match four unbeaten at Pride Park, with John Eustace demonstrating the ability to repeat the trick once more by making his home stadium a tough place for away teams to win at.

Whilst Luton themselves have picked up their performance level and picked up some results, their tendency to not be able to fully capitalise on their chances and performances has meant that too many draws are keeping them in the relegation zone..

Taking the possibility of a draw here, and certainly the likelihood of a low margin game, there is a combination which looks decent value. This is a bet on Derby/Draw Double Chance and under 2.5 goals this is around 1.95, this covers a low scoring Derby win plus 0-0 and 1-1.

👕 Derby v Luton Predicted XI

🔍 Derby v Luton Players to Watch

⚪ Jerry Yates

The striker looks to be back on shooting form with six shots in his last two matches. He is likely to be Derby’s primary attacking threat here and has at least one shot on target in his last three matches.

The on-loan Swansea striker is averaging 1.83 shots on target per 90 in the Championship, and is also on penalties for the Rams along with Nathaniel Mendez-Laing.

➡️ Back Jerry Yates to have 1+ Shots on Target with bet365 @ 1.87 🔛

18+ Gamble Responsibly | Ad

🟠 Millenic Alli

Alli came in on the left side of Luton’s midfield, technically a left wing-back, when Alfie Doughty had to come off in the first half against Stoke. He went on to score the last-minute equaliser that day from four shots, and then he took five shots in the loss to Blackburn, including hitting the bar in the last minute.

He looks to be a shot machine, especially from distance, and especially late in matches.

➡️ Back Millenic Alli to have 2+ Shots with bet365 @ 1.87 🔛

18+ Gamble Responsibly | Ad

🟠 Mark McGuinness

McGuinness has been a shot threat all season. Whilst he has a better record at home than away, needs must for Luton now, and they will be looking to McGuinness as their most potent set-piece threat. He has six shots in his last three matches, including three last time out against Blackburn.

➡️ Back Mark McGuinness to have 1+ Shots with bet365 @ 1.73 🔛

18+ Gamble Responsibly | Ad

📂 Derby v Luton Cheat Sheet

Good Friday plays host to plenty more EFL action, and our expert Football Betting Predictions will be diving into all the action. Make sure to check out our EFL Betting Tips along with our EFL Accumulator Tips so you don’t miss any of our coverage.

We’ve also got Sheffield United v Cardiff Betting Tips, plus Oxford v Leeds Bet Builder Tips, and European Football Acca Tips for all of the best action on Friday.

Be sure to check out our Bet Builder Stats tool too, the best freely available data source for punting on football, plus our collection of the best Free Bet Offers.

💻 Derby v Luton Form and Tactics

Derby have only one defeat in seven, but they haven’t won in their last three either. A draw at home to Burnley is a very reputable result, though, and it could’ve easily have been so different if they hadn’t conceded a last-minute equaliser to Rob Atkinson of Portsmouth at the weekend. There has been more goals around for Derby under Eustace, scoring twice or more in five of their last seven matches.

Unlike at Blackburn, Eustace is employing a three-at-the-back system. They have three strong centre backs in Sondre Langas, Nat Phillips, and Matt Clarke, and with Clarke being left-footed, there is a good, natural balance to this choice. It also allows Kane Wilson and Craig Forsyth to push on and provide the width for the team. Harrison Armstrong has been a revelation on loan, and Ebou Adams helps to provide the physicality to make the system work.

The front three tend to play narrow and rotate around, with Jerry Yates and Marcus Harness able to use their finishing ability centrally.

The concern about this match is that Luton are also employing a three at the back system, so these systems could cancel each other out. There is flexibility in the midfield, with Jordan Clark and Liam Walsh taking it in turns to support the attack, and Thelo Aasgaard and Tahith Chong performing interchangeable hybrid forward roles in support of Carlton Morris. The introduction of Millenic Alli has added more shooting depth, even if it does leave Amari’i Bell with more space to cover.

Luton have drawn three of their last five, but the 0-1 defeat to Blackburn last time could be damaging to their confidence. They haven’t scored more than once since their 2-1 win at Cardiff six games ago.

🏁 Derby v Luton Ref Watch

• Referee: James Linington

• Stats are on a per 90 basis and are taken from 2024/25 Championship games (15 total)

Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Our guide on How To Use A Cheat Sheet is the perfect way to get involved with our Bet Builder Stats tool, the best freely available data source for punting on the EFL.

We recommend the Best Betting Sites For Accumulators, Top Bet Builder Sites, and Weekly Free Bet Clubs, all to ensure you bet smarter when backing our tips with the Best UK Sports Betting Sites. There's a list of the best New Bookmaker Offers here.

Expert guides, such as this one, on xG In Football, are also available to help you up your punting game. To back the bets in this preview, you'll need a Paddy Power or Betfair account, check out the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and Betfair Sign Up Offer here.

* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.