Luton v Derby

⭐ Luton v Derby Best Bet

This match comes down to separating home records and away records. Both teams have vulnerabilities and red flags can be attached to each of them.

82% of all Luton’s points have come at Kenilworth Road. 16/23 goals scored this season have come at Kenilworth Road. They are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches.

Derby have won just one away league game this season and picked up just 7/24 points on their travels. They have only scored 9 goals in 11 away matches

🟡 Luton v Derby #WhatOddsPaddy Tip

Carlton Morris has 5 goals to his name this season but is underperforming his xG of 6.33. He averages 1.89 shots per 90 with a 44.8% on target ratio. Referee Andrew Kitchen has given 2 penalties in the 13 matches he’s officiated this season. A 3^rd here in the favour of Luton would likely see Morris on spot kick duties. 

Luton scored a goal in each half of their last home game v Stoke and have achieved this feat a further 2 times already this season. Ebou Adams has been booked 5 times already this season at an average of 1 booking every 5 matches, it'd be no surprise to see him receive another booking here.

👕 Luton v Derby Predicted XI

🔍 Luton v Derby Players to Watch

🟠 Elijah Adebayo

Only Norwich’s Borja Sainz has higher xG this season than Elijah Adebayo.

Adebayo has underperformed his 9.2xG with just 5 goals so far this season. But he’s scored 16 goals and 8 goals in previous Championship seasons as well as 10 in the Premier League. He can be expected to bring that number of actual and expected goals closer together as the season progresses.

Adebayo has scored 3 goals in his last 4 matches and has shot numbers of 1-2-2-3-4-2 in his last 6 matches.

⚪️ Ebou Adams

Ebou Adams is FotMob’s top-rated Derby player with a season score of 7.34/10. Adams achieves the high score as he is doing well across a number of metrics.

As you’d expect from the tireless midfielder, Adams is the top-rated Derby player for possession won in the final third (0.8 per 90). He makes 2.8 successful tackles per 90, 1.2 tackles more than anyone else in the Derby squad. And he has 1.7 interceptions per 90 – 2nd to only Eiran Cashin (2.2).

But surprisingly, Adams has the second highest shots per 90 (1.6) amongst Derby players and is 3rd for season xG (3.5) behind strikers Jerry Yates and Kayden Jackson.

Adams has scored 3 goals this season from midfield and is priced attractively for a shot on target here.

📂 Luton v Derby Cheat Sheet

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💻 Luton v Derby Form and Tactics

Luton have numerous players absent, either by way of suspension or injury and are especially short in defence and midfield.

Liam Walsh is suspended after being sent off just 10 minutes after coming on as a substitute versus Blackburn last weekend. It was Walsh’s second such incident this season having previously been sent off at Oxford with a minute of him being on the pitch.

Defenders Teden Mengi, Reuell Walters, Reece Burke and Amari’i Bell, Wingback Alfie Doughty and Midfielder Shannon Baptiste are all out with various injuries.

Luton feel like they’ve lost themselves this season. Known for a direct, compact setup when they won promotion from the Championship in the season 2022/23, this season they started the season by adopting an extremely high defensive line with a more expansive playing style. They’ve rowed back from their early season stance but now have a confused look where they are caught between identities.

Luton will shape up in a 3-4 base. In attack, they could play 2 up top with a #10 behind or with a focal point flanked by 2 further attackers.

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Luton’s probable back 3 of Daiki Hashioka, Mark McGuinness, and Tom Holmes are cumbersome and vulnerable to balls played in behind them.

Luton are 18th in the 5-game form table with 4 points from their last possible 15.

Luton are 2nd in the division for successful crosses and 6th for touches in the opponent's penalty area.

Derby’s 4-0 win versus Portsmouth a week ago on Friday was their first in 7 matches. It came at a cost though. Pivotal defender Eiran Cashin had to leave the pitch with a hamstring injury and will miss Friday’s game.

Derby average 42.7% possession in Championship matches this season – only Millwall have lower. Derby are top of the division for interceptions per match and 2nd for successful tackles per match.

Derby line up 4-3-3 and fill as many positions as possible with high-energy players.

A couple of key areas could decide the match. Will Luton’s creativity be curbed by the absence of Alfie Doughty and his crossing power? Will Derby be sturdy enough without Eiran Cashin’s box defending? Can Derby get their front 3 of Marcus Harness, Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, and Jerry Yates in behind Luton’s defensive line?

🏁 Luton v Derby Ref Watch

• Referee: Andrew Kitchen
• Averages 4.3 cards per game in 13 matches officiated this season
• Has given 1 straight red card this season (Ibrahim Cissoko, Cardiff v Plymouth)
• Has given 2 penalties this season (Sheffield United v Watford & Barrow v Notts County)
• Hasn’t refereed Luton or Derby previously this season

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.