The Commanders are again without quarterback Jayden Daniels here, who suffered a horrific arm injury, meaning that Marcus Mariota will be under centre once again. Mariota certainly likes Zach Ertz as a target, attempting to throw him the ball nine times in his two most recent starts.

Ertz has averaged just 34.5 receiving yards per game this season, but there’s reason to be optimistic he covers the 40+ line here. Firstly, he’s broken that number in each of his last two outings and is fresh from a 54-yard performance against the Lions. Secondly, there are a lot of injuries in the Commanders' receiver corps, meaning more targets to go around.

Then, finally, we have to factor in that only two teams have allowed more receiving yards to tight ends this season than the Dolphins, who are giving up 71.4 per game to the position.

Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle is one of the best in the business, but has been let down in recent seasons by poor quarterback play. That said, he gets a lot of volume, something that has only increased since teammate Tyreek Hill got placed on Injured Reserve. He’s the main focal point in the Dolphins' passing game and will get a lot of looks.

The Commanders are giving up 260.2 yards through the air each game, more than all but one team in the NFL, so this should be fertile ground for Waddle. He’s averaged 67 yards per game this season and has broken the 60 mark in five of his past six.

When you’re talking dual-threat running backs in the NFL, you can’t look further than De’Von Achane, who is one of the best in his position. He’s a strong runner but is incredibly dangerous as a pass catcher, with Mike McDaniel utilising his skills well when he’s out in the open field. 

The Dolphins have shown signs of life in recent weeks, and it’s no surprise that their two wins in the past three weeks have come when Achane has gotten a lot of volume in the passing game, with 13 targets in those games. In fact, we’ve seen Achane get five or more targets in eight of 10 games this season, and he’s had five or more catches in his past three.

We’re doubling down on Achane here and backing the former Texas A&M man to score. With the Dolphins 3-7 you’d be forgiven for thinking he might not have had a great season but you’d be wrong. He’s scored nine times in 10 games, and has split those 5-4 between ground and receiving touchdowns.

He’s fresh off a two-touchdown, 200+ yard performance against the Bills and will be licking his lips against a Commanders’ defense who are averaging a touchdown per game allowed to opposing running backs.