Ja'Marr Chase is one of the best wide receivers in football, and he finds himself in a great matchup against the Steelers. In his last game against Pittsburgh he went 16-161 on 23 targets, exploiting their lackluster defense. With Ramsey moving to the safety position I would expect them to matchup more often, which heavily benefited Chase in the last game. 

While the Tomlin lead Steelers have historically been a great defense, their lack of ability to adapt has held them back. They have an elite defensive line, but their secondary has struggled in coverage and allowed WR1’s to destroy them. They also just don’t change their scheme much, allowing tons of 1v1 press man coverage. 

Chase is one of the best targets for receptions, because he has one of the best route trees in football. We saw him dominate deep threats early in his career, but he can really do it all now. He sees at least two targets behind the line of scrimmage, and is super involved in the short yardage passing game as well.

Jaylen Warren has been a sneakily good running back for the Steelers, and I would expect him to continue to see more volume in a good matchup. The Bengals have been a bottom three defense all year, and with such a strong offense they have been an amazing matchup for opposing props. Rating out as a bottom three rush defense via EPA/per play, I would expect Warren to be the focus of the gameplan. 

Last time he suited up against the Bengals was his best game of the year, going 16-127, despite the loss. It was also his first game back, meaning we saw more Kenneth Gainwell usage than I would expect in this one. He will see at least 70% of the carries, which is a valuable role against Cincy. 

When looking at why they got destroyed in primetime last week, despite the Chargers looking awful, Jaylen Warren was not on the field for a single third down during this 0-9 3rd down start for the Steelers. I think they will look to correct that, and get Warren involved early and often. This offense isn’t good through the air, so I think they would lean into what they do best.

The Bengals only have one very good defensive player, and his name is DJ Reed. I would expect him to shadow DK Metcalf, the Steelers clear WR1. Besides one deep ball, he did a great job limiting Metcalf in the first game, and I think he will do a good job again. The problem with the Steelers then becomes, who steps up? Calvin Austin seems like the clear target. 

He missed the first matchup with injury, but ever since coming back he’s seen some very good volume. Over his last three games he has 6, 6, and 7 targets… which should be more than enough to get him over this number. We also saw the TE room absolutely destroy the Bengals, so I would expect them to focus more on shutting those guys down, allowing more space for Austin to win 1v1 matchups.

With the injury to Samaje Perine, Chase Brown becomes the clear #1 back with early down usage and passing down work. He lost out incredibly valuable two-minute drill snaps along with deep passing downs, which will now play. He was already a good pass catcher, but this really opens up the door for him to take over. 

Flacco is one of the most checkdown reliant quarterbacks in football, and when his high level WR’s aren’t open he has not problem checking the ball down. Having a veteran with such a high floor has totally changed this offense, and with defenses having to worry about so many weapons Brown often falls under the radar.

Chase Brown just had one of the best RB receiving games in a long time last week. He ended up with 14 regrets - a RB has gotten to that number just twice this year, and just 13 times in six years.