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Napoli v Roma

Below is a full betting preview ahead of this Sunday’s standout Serie A fixture between Napoli and Roma, accompanied by betting tips, predictions, team news, and best bets as well as a Cheat Sheet covering proceedings.

Andy’s Bet Club has covered you for this week’s footballing action, with plenty of expert research bets including European football accumulator tips, Sunday European football acca tips, European football predictions, and plenty more expert football betting tips across Europe’s best fixtures, including our brand-new both teams to score tips.

We have also tracked all the best free bets for UK customers and the best bet builder bookmakers, to ensure our readers get the best value from our football betting tips.

Naples and Rome, two of the great cities of Italy, but home to two clubs who may feel like they have underachieved somewhat in Serie A this term.

Having said that, Daniele De Rossi has had a sizeable impact since taking the reins from Jose Mourinho in January. They have won 29 points from 13 matches since 16th January, which is Champions League qualification form. A continuation of this probably will deliver the Champions League as well, especially considering Italy’s strong position in the 2023/24 UEFA coefficients, which could grant Serie A an extra Champions League place for next season.

Napoli have suffered a bit of a Scudetto hangover. They have burned through three managers, but, excitingly for the San Paolo crowd, reports are emerging that Antonio Conte has agreed a three-year deal to take over in the summer. For now, Francesco Calzona will hope to propel Napoli into a European place starting with a win here.

Napoli v Roma Best Bet

➡️ Over 5.5 cards @ 2.05 with Betfair

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📂 Napoli v Roma Cheat Sheet

There are so many ways to use our Cheat Sheets to look for player fouls won stats or any other markets, and we encourage you to find your formula to pick a winning bet builder, however, if you’re unsure of how to use a Cheat Sheet, just click the link for some quick tips to help you make the most of it.

You can find Napoli v Roma match stats, on my bet builder stats tool, along with official line-ups one hour before kick-off. If you’re looking for a new bookmaker check out the best bet builder bookmakers.

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⚔️ Napoli v Roma Head-to-Head

The head-to-head between these giants of Italian football has been relatively evenly matched over the last few seasons. The last 29 meetings have seen 14 wins for Napoli and 10 for Roma with 5 draws.

However, most of that isn’t pertinent given the changes at the clubs. The earlier meeting this season does carry more relevance, even though both clubs had different managers in charge.

Roma won that meeting 2-0, albeit it was fairly evenly matched until Napoli suffered a red card just after the hour mark, this was followed by a second sending off after 86 minutes, by which stage Lorenzo Pellegrini had put the Romans in front. Romelu Lukaku added a second on 90+6 to add some gloss to the scoreline.

In terms of the interesting stats and learnings from the game, Napoli dominated possession in the 11 v 11 phase of the match, with Roma playing on the counter-attack and being much more effective. They edged the shots and xG data when the teams had equal numbers of players. The trend was exacerbated when Matteo Politano received his marching orders. Napoli did not win a corner in the entire match.

As well as the two red cards, there were 10 yellows given out to the players, and both Walter Mazzarri and Jose Mourinho were booked in the first half.

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📊 Napoli Form and Stats

Napoli are in a poor run of form. They have one victory in seven matches, away at Monza. This is especially disappointing as they had looked in decent shape for a European spot after a 2-1 home win over Juventus in early March.

Again, there must be some frustration when looking into the performance data for the season. Napoli sit third in the expected points (xP) table over the whole season, with the third-best expected goals for (xGF) and the sixth-best expected goals against (xGA) in Serie A.

At the San Paolo, Napoli haven’t won in three Serie A matches, but they have only lost one xG battle in the last nine, and that was last time out against Frosinone. This makes for complicated reading because their generally good performance level at home should stand them in good stead, but recent results are painting a picture of a team that can create chances, but are not finishing them and are perhaps conceding more goals than they should as well.

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📊 Roma Form and Stats

We know that Roma’s results have been very good under Daniele De Rossi. They have five wins in their last seven matches, which includes a progression into the Europa League semi-finals at the expense of AC Milan.

From a season-long performance data perspective, Roma sit just behind Napoli in xP. They have the fifth-best xGF in the league and the fifth-best xGA in the competition, though both are quite a way off the very best teams in the division.

Interestingly though, and Jose Mourinho may be interested in this, since De Rossi took over, results have dramatically improved, but performance data has gone the opposite way. Some of this may be due to game state, i.e. Roma are ahead in matches more often, so the balance of chances is perhaps against them more often because of this. Roma are only seventh in the xP table since De Rossi’s appointment.

In terms of their recent away matches, Roma are unbeaten in six, winning four of them. However, in keeping with the trend under De Rossi, they actually lost the xG battle in four of the six matches. 

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💰 Napoli v Roma Best Bets 

The form of both teams leading into this match paints a cloudy picture. There is no doubt that when looking at the results Roma should be classed as the form side. They are the ones with the better results, even away from home, but Napoli actually have very similar performance data to Roma, and they have the home advantage.

The bookmakers certainly haven’t missed the performance data aspect with Napoli priced as odds-on favourites. This seems short given the results, and the value play is to oppose the home side. However, the best bets probably come in different markets.

Given the fireworks of the meeting earlier this season with 10 yellows and 2 red cards shown, the card markets look good to attack. Over 5.5 cards is priced at 2.05 with Betfair and this seems like a very fair price. Roma are also totalling by far the highest number of yellow cards in the league this season with 87 in 33 matches, almost 3 per match by themselves.

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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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18+ please gamble responsibly.

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