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Newcastle v Arsenal
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Kick Off: Saturday 4th November at 17:30
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Competition: Premier League
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Watch Live: Sky Sports Main Event
We have an exciting match in store on Saturday evening, with Arsenal making the trip to the fortress that is St James’ Park, the home of Newcastle United. Both teams played in the Carabao Cup in midweek, but they had very different outcomes.
Arsenal were eliminated from the competition by West Ham United at the London Stadium. Some people predicted this, as Arsenal never seem to take the competition seriously. However, they will still be hurt by the defeat. Arsenal left out stars Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard, while West Ham had a full-strength team.
On the other hand, Newcastle went to Old Trafford and put on a show. They stunned Manchester United fans as they watched their team suffer a second consecutive 3-0 defeat on home turf.
Eddie Howe fielded a makeshift XI, with players like Bruno Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier, and Fabian Schar all being left out. Alexander Isak is still sidelined due to injury, and Sandro Tonali is serving a lengthy suspension. Despite all of this, Newcastle demolished Man United and got sweet revenge for their loss against the Red Devils in the Carabao Cup final last season.
Today, we’ll break down some key stats ahead of Saturday’s game and discuss what we believe holds the best value.
Newcastle v Arsenal Cheat Sheet
This Cheat Sheet and Preview was created using predicted lineups.
You can find Newcastle v Arsenal on my Bet Builder stats tool, along with official lineups one hour before kick-off.
Now, for my breakdown and preview with recommended bets…
⚫ Newcastle stats: Howe is he doing it?
Once again, Newcastle are enjoying a season full of memories so far. No matter what the result is, they still have some great games to look back on. They most recently added Man United to the list of giants they’ve squashed this season. They beat Man City in the Carabao Cup and PSG in the UCL already this season as well.
The games in which they’ve struggled are the big Premier League games. Here’s a sample of some results against the elite:
- 1-0 defeat v Man City
- 2-1 defeat v Liverpool
- 3-1 defeat v Brighton
They need to improve their form against the big Premier League sides, that is a certainty and they have an opportunity to do so this weekend against an Arsenal side that currently sit second in the table.
If they can put up a performance in like they did against Man United then they will be just fine, but Arsenal do pose much more of a threat than the Red Devils at the moment.
🔴 Arsenal stats: Arsenal focusing on the league
After a shoddy performance in the Carabao Cup, Arsenal were eventually knocked out by West Ham who won the game 3-1. This would be a really concerning result if their league form wasn’t so good.
The Gunners are on course to be in another title race this season. They and Spurs remain the only sides yet to lose a league game in the league. Is it possible that we see a team in North London go invincible again?
Spurs face Chelsea on Monday as well which will be a very tough game, if Arsenal get three points they could see themselves top of the league at the end of the gameweek.
🎯 Newcastle offensive stats: Gordon on fire
Anthony Gordon has offered something completely unique in the Newcastle squad this season. His high press and aggression are slightly different to the play style of Miguel Almiron yet he still offers similar pace and on-the-ball threat as the Paraguayan.
Perhaps the most impressive feat of Gordon has been his shooting. He has been a volume shooter in this Newcastle team. Whether it’s a chance he’s created himself from nothing with his excellent movement or a quick counter-attack, he always seems to have at least a shot at goal.
He’s averaged 1.03 shots on target per 90 in the league for Newcastle. Only Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak have more and they both play as central strikers.
Gordon will be up against Ben White, and whilst White is a great defender, he has often struggled to handle the top left wingers 1 v 1. Rashford and Heung-Min Son have both had measurable success against the English right back this season as has Mykhailo Mudryk. Gordon will target White and will likely get some shots away.
Prediction: Anthony Gordon to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.73
🎯 Arsenal offensive stats: Eddie Nketiah loving life
Eddie Nketiah scored his first Premier League hat-trick against Sheffield United last week in what was a quality display from the English striker. He’s up there with the most shots on target for Arsenal but the stats are split among a lot of players.
- Martin Odegaard – 8 shots on target
- Bukayo Saka – 7 shots on target
- Eddie Nketiah – 7 shots on target
- Gabriel Martinelli – 6 shots on target
All of these four players are good picks for a shot on target, but given the form of Nketiah, he would be the man we would look at with the keenest of eyes.
Prediction: Eddie Nketiah to have 1+ shot on target @ 1.53
🛑 Newcastle defensive stats: Midfield the key area
Newcastle United’s midfield has become known for being tough but lacking discipline. Bruno Guimaraes, Joelinton, and Sandro Tonali lead the ranks for fouls but with Tonali out, we may see a boost in fouls for both Bruno and Joelinton.
They’ll be up against Kai Havertz, Declan Rice and Odegaard potentially. The three have been fouled 22 times combined so far this season. A lot of the fouls in this game will really depend on how things play out, Newcastle are often the dominant party at St James’, controlling games on a regular basis.
But, last season Arsenal scored in the opening 15 minutes and managed Newcastle just fine for the rest of the 90. This time the Geordies will look to assert their dominance early to give Arsenal no time to breathe, similar to how they played against PSG.
Prediction: Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ foul @ 1.20
Prediction: Bruno Guimaraes to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.91
Prediction: Joelinton to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.44
🛑 Arsenal defensive stats: Saka and White worth keeping an eye on
Newcastle draw a lot of fouls, particularly from two players. Gordon and Guimaraes. So the best players to look at for fouls at Arsenal will be players that occupy the same area of the pitch as the pair.
Firstly, we have Kai Havertz who will be directly up against Bruno Guimaraes should he start. He has committed the second most fouls of any Arsenal player so far this season and averages 1.90 per 90 in the Premier League alone. At 1.11 though for 1+ foul, backing the German for 2+ fouls seems the wiser option given the value and his average per 90 this season.
Secondly, we have Bukayo Saka and Ben White who will be up against Anthony Gordon. We’ve discussed him a lot today, he’ll look to get at both players as he always does. Saka and White have been fouled 19 times between them this season so far in the league.
Prediction: Bukayo Saka to commit 1+ foul @ 1.30
Prediction: Ben White to commit 1+ foul @ 1.53
Prediction: Kai Havertz to commit 2+ fouls @ 1.62
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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