While Newcastle haven’t quite lived up to expectations this season, they will be confident of securing victory at St James’ Park. There has been a real dichotomy in form for Newcastle at home, compared to away, the Magpies have won six of their last seven matches on home turf across all competitions.

That includes an impressive 2-1 victory against Man City, and a 2-0 win over Athletic Club in the Champions League. In fact, the only game they failed to win in that stretch was against Spurs last time out, but the hosts were the dominant side.

Newcastle racked up 2.04xG from 19 shots, but were held to a draw thanks to a 95th-minute goal from Cristian Romero. The centre back accounted for two of Spurs’ eight shots, and converted both into goals. His side managed just 0.75xG, and were lucky to come away from Tyneside with a point.

Buoyed by a passionate home support, Newcastle have looked strong at St James’ Park this season, and have scored multiple goals in eight of their last 10 in all competitions. They only failed against Arsenal, who boast the best defensive unit in the Premier League this season, and Barcelona.

Considering Burnley have shipped multiple goals in five of their last six matches, they could be in for a tough night. Scott Parker’s men have conceded the highest xG tally of any Premier League club this season, so Newcastle should really be looking forward to this matchup.

However, the Magpies haven’t quite been resolute defensively in recent weeks, and those issues seem set to persist with Nick Pope and Sven Botman unlikely to feature here. Newcastle have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five outings across all competitions, conceding nine goals in that time.

On the plus side, Newcastle have also scored 10 goals in that stretch, highlighting how their games have been open and expansive, with chances available at both ends of the field. Harvey Barnes has chipped in with four of those goals, and seems to have established himself on the left wing.

The 27-year-old has started each of the last five straight matches, during which he has landed this selection in all of those fixtures. The England international is averaging 2.61 shots per 90 in the Premier League, with 40% of those efforts hitting the target, showcasing an efficiency in front of goal.

Operating on the left wing, Barnes naturally looks to chop inside onto his stronger right foot, which creates favourable shooting angles. His average of 3.23 shots per 90 in the league last season suggests that there is still room for his numbers to improve.

Newcastle rank 10th for total fouls drawn in the English top-flight this season, but a lot of their opponents’ fouls are concentrated in midfield. Bruno Guimaraes ranks 3rd out of all Premier League players for total fouls drawn this term, averaging 2.33 fouls drawn per 90, while Joelinton is not too far behind on 1.36.

Midfield duo Pape Sarr and Rodrigo Bentancur combined to commit five fouls against Newcastle midweek, as they struggled to contain the Magpies’ midfield. Florentino will have a similar role on Saturday afternoon, and he is averaging 1.42 fouls per 90 this season.

In addition to that, he has an eye-catching average of 4.57 tackles per 90, too, highlighting how he likes to get stuck in. The former Benfica man had 1.8 fouls per 90 in the Portuguese top-flight last season, which makes this price really stand out.