After all of the research, I am edging onto Wales’ side in the match odds market.

Wales’ record at home against nations that aren’t at the very top table in competitive matches is really strong.

They lost 4-2 to Belgium last time out, but results before that in competitive fixtures read: 3-0 v Liechtenstein, 3-1 v Kazakhstan, 4-1 v Iceland, 1-0 v Montenegro, 0-0 v Turkey, 4-1 v Finland, 1-1 v Turkey and 2-1 v Croatia.

North Macedonia only need a draw here. They will surely dig in and look to frustrate to get a 0-0. This tactic worked against Belgium, but they conceded 25 shots worth 3.2 xG in that match, so it was more by luck than judgment.

Brennan Johnson's expected return to the starting XI will give Wales a huge lift. North Macedonia's raw numbers and position in the group are strong, but they've significantly overperformed. In their most comparable away game to this, in qualifying, they won 1-0 in Kazakhstan, but they only managed 0.31 xG and just three shots from inside the box. A regression to the mean in Cardiff should see Wales get the job done.

This looks, to me at least, to be a match in which Harry Wilson can take centre stage as Wales’ chief goal threat and use his shot volume, especially from outside of the box to try to beat North Macedonia's expected low block.

Wilson averaged 3.04 shots per 90 in the most recent Nations League campaign. Having two or more shots in all six appearances in that competition, in eight of Wilson's last 10 competitive apps for Wales, he's had two or more shots. One more on top of that shouldn't be too much to ask in such a huge game.

We know that Wales need the result, need a goal, and the longer that they go without one, the more likely it is that Wilson will chance his arm. He has scored many important goals for Wales, and in the absence of other big players, with Ethan Ampadu and Jordan James suspended, he will feel the responsibility to step up and deliver.

North Macedonia's experienced defensive midfielder is one of their most frequent foulers and I see him as the main man to prevent Wales from getting a decent chance at goal from dangerous central areas.

He will also likely be the one in position to cover and prevent quick breaks from his position as the deepest-lying central midfielder. This is a prime opportunity for fouls to be committed.

Alimi is also over 6 ft tall and is used in aerial duels by North Macedonia, which gives him another opportunity to get involved in personal duels and fouls.

Alimi has committed an average of 1.43 fouls per 90 across North Macedonia's last 50 matches, and committed five in their last qualifier as well.

Some extra confidence for this bet comes in the form of Josh Sheehan. The Welshman looks likely to deputise in central midfield given suspensions for Ampadu and ames, and he has been fouled in each of his last six starts for Wales, and 1.50 times per 90 in the last two years for Wales.

I see the potential for Wales to have North Macedonia penned into their own defensive third for a long periods, and being able to force a number of corners against them.

Looking back at past form and records doesn’t feel as important as it would in a regular league or group phase game; the fancy here is connected to the particular circumstances of this match.

However, it is also the case that Wales' home matches, over the last 30 played, average over 8.5 corners per match at 8.82. Four of their seven home matches in the last Nations League cycle and this World Cup qualifying campaign went over this line, too.