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Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, 10/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Wednesday 22 May, 20245 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Defeat against Newcastle just before the international break made it seven games without a win for Ange Postecoglou since taking over from Nuno Espirito Santo, with fans already calling for him to be axed. 

Nottingham Forest sit 17th in the table, just one point clear of the relegation zone, so they will be desperate to turn their form around when they return to the City Ground on Saturday afternoon.

Check out these Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Betting Stats ahead of kick-off.

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Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
4 Selections @ 2.47

Morgan Gibbs-White to Commit 1+ Fouls

Morgan Gibbs-White has committed six fouls across his seven Premier League appearances so far this season (0.97 per 90). He operates in the heart of the pitch and will be up against the likes of Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo here.

The Chelsea midfield duo have been incredibly effective when it comes to winning fouls and dominating central areas, and that should show itself again here. Fernandez has won 10 fouls this term (1.45 per 90), while Caicedo has been hauled down on 12 occasions (1.71 per 90).

Gibbs-White has also been playing on the right hand side at times under Ange Postecoglou. This would pit him up against Marc Cucurella who also has a positive fouls won record, having drawn eight fouls this season (1.34 per 90).

Gibbs-White contested 10 duels and committed a foul in the most recent head-to-head meeting between the sides, which was a 1-0 Chelsea win at the City Ground.

Marc Cucurella to Commit 1+ Fouls

Cucurella made more tackles than any player (3) and committed two fouls in this fixture last season. The fullback is very aggressive against his opposite winger and will face up against Dan Ndoye, here who has shown some really bright moments in a Forest shirt so far.

Cucurella has committed nine fouls across his seven Premier League appearances so far this season (1.51 per 90). His fouls usually come when he has been caught up the pitch, with Cucurella regularly advancing into the final third, or in direct 1v1 duels when Forest are able to put together a few passes in moments of transition.

Ndoye has won six fouls across his seven Premier League appearances this season (1.08 per 90), but this data isn’t a true reflection of his ability to win fouls. Ndoye won a massive 101 fouls across his 30 Serie A appearances last season (4.23 per 90), so his numbers are bound to rise at some point during the campaign.

Chelsea Goalkeeper to Make 2+ Saves

Rob Sanchez has been forced into making 13 saves across his seven Premier League matches so far this season (2.15 per 90), with a save percentage of 65%. I actually think Sanchez is a pretty decent shot stopper, he just needs to work on maintaining a consistent level and his distribution.

Further evidence to support this is the fact that Sanchez maintained the best save percentage of any goalkeeper in the Premier League last season (73.6%), with Sanchez called into action to make 2.97 saves per 90. He was forced into two saves in this fixture last season, and was also tested eight times by Forest when they visited Stamford Bridge last term.

Postecoglou’s side must take something from this game, or you’d imagine that there will be a wave of speculation regarding his future at the club, so I’d expect Forest to try and take the game to Chelsea. That being said, Postecoglou lost all of his games with Tottenham against the Blues, so his side may not get the joy they’re after in terms of the scoreline, but I do think they can test Sanchez on at least two occasions with Ange’s forward thinking approach.

Over 3.5 Chelsea Corners

Chelsea are starting to become a really effective side from set pieces. It always frustrates me when a side neglects set pieces as an avenue to goal, Arsenal and Crystal Palace have shown over the last year or so how much joy you can get from them - with Brentford going a step further to reimplement long throws back into the mainstream.

Only Arsenal (53) have won more corners in the Premier League than Chelsea this season (45). This works out to 6.42 corners per game that the Blues are averaging in the league. Chelsea managed four corners in their 1-0 win over Forest at the City Ground last term and racked up 11 in the 1-1 draw at Stamford Bridge.

When we look specifically at Chelsea’s away games in the Premier League this season, Enzo Maresca’s side are averaging 5.33 corners per game.

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Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Best Longshot Bets
  • Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
  • Premier League
  • 12:30
3 Selections @ 9.14

Over 2.5 Goals

‘Angeball’ is chaotic and frantic to the point where I'm not entirely sure what it is. The defensive line is far too high for the players Forest have, particularly the centre backs, with Milenkovic struggling with playing in a more advanced role and leaving space behind him which he doesn’t have the speed to cover.

Even the attacking elements are fragmented. Gibbs-White has been shifted out to the right at times which is a really strange decision in my view, he’s Forest’s most influential player and should play in the middle of the park. There have been some bright spots with players like Bakwa showing glimpses of promise, but overall it looks to be quite a fractured project.

Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches - the Blues’ backline is not currently in a position where you can back them with confidence to keep clean sheets. Sanchez has only kept two shutouts across his seven Premier League appearances this season. The madness of Ange’s approach, paired with the issues that Chelsea face at the back, should produce goals here.

Estevao to Score Anytime

Estevao had the moment of the weekend before the international break, sliding in at the back post to tuck away Cucurella’s ball across the box to earn Chelsea a big three points over Liverpool at Stamford Bridge.

One of Chelsea’s biggest issues over recent seasons is being unable to build on wins like that. It would often be the case that Chelsea would get a massive win over a big six rival, and then throw away that momentum in the next game - in fairness, this is what I’d expect from the youngest ever side in the Premier League. 

Estevao has a star quality about him, which is difficult to find in players his age. He always wants the ball and it’s clear that his teammates trust him already. He went away with Brazil during the international break and extended his positive form with two goals against South Korea. 

Estevao has registered two goal contributions across just 265 minutes of Premier League football this campaign, and I think he can continue to make an impact in this clash with Forest’s vulnerability at the back under Postecoglou.

Neco Williams to Commit 2+ Fouls

Neco Williams has committed 2+ fouls in each of his last two Premier League appearances, with this record stretching to see the Wales defender commit 2+ fouls in three of his last five matches - with at least one foul in four of these games.

Williams gets moved around a lot by Forest, so it’s not totally surprising that his foul record is so notable. He’s set to line up at left wingback here having also played on the right for Postecoglou. This would pit him up against either Neto or Estevao - both players who have shown a willingness to take on their man.

Williams is likely to engage with them, and Reece James, more often as a wingback rather than a fullback. Forest lined up with a back three against Newcastle and are expected to utilise that shape again here, which has resulted in Williams contesting more duels and committing more fouls.

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📂 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Cheat Sheet

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📈 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Form & Tactics

It’s hard for me to find any sympathy for Nottingham Forest. Nuno Espírito Santo may not be an elite manager, but he has rarely got the credit he deserves for his work at Wolves and Forest - transforming both sides from lower league relegation candidates to solid midtable operators, pushing for European positions.

The decision to sack him was ludicrous and we’re starting to see just how much of a mistake it was. Whatever your opinions on Ange Postecoglou, it’s clear that any new manager would struggle in this scenario. He plays with a completely different style which Forest simply don’t have the players to pull off, and is insistent on his method as the only way forward.

Forest have long had a policy of bringing just about anyone through the door, but this has cost the squad any real identity, which was something they really built on last season. The chemistry in the side was a massive part of their ability to qualify for European football and reach the semi-finals of the FA Cup, but all that has been shattered by the changes at the club.

Chelsea are the most unpredictable side in the Premier League at the best of times, let alone when they’ve got half their backline missing. Their win over Liverpool is massive in the context of their young squad and tough start to the season. Centre back is still a problem position for Maresca, but seeing his side come through that adversity against Liverpool will have given him a real boost in confidence.

I’d still say Chelsea are vulnerable at the back and wouldn’t back them to keep a clean sheet at the moment. One of Chelsea’s trends which may come to the fore here is their ability from set pieces. It was well documented during Ange’s time at Spurs that the coach doesn’t spend a lot of time on set pieces. This could be an avenue to goal for Chelsea, who have already scored five goals from such situations this season. 


📔 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Formation & Team News

Postecoglou tweaked his formation in the weeks leading up to the international break, with Forest lining up in a 3-4-3 at St James’ Park a few weeks back. This shape didn’t make Forest any more solid at the back, but a small bit of optimism came from Jair Cunha who was one of the players they signed from Botafogo over the summer, I thought he looked quite assured in his wide centre back role.

When it comes to absences, Forest are still without Ola Aina, who is a huge miss when you think back to how influential he was last season. They’re also without summer signings Zinchenko and Douglas Luiz at the moment, who have featured briefly for Forest so far.

Chelsea line up in a 3-2-4-1 when they have the ball and a 4-4-2 when without the ball. Maresca brings in slight tactical tweaks to this system depending on who Chelsea are playing against, but these tend to be the main shapes you’ll see Chelsea in. He had been toying with three in midfield at the Club World Cup, but we’ve seen less of that in the actual season so far.

Chelsea always seem to have a long injury list and will be without Colwill, Fofana, Santos, Palmer and Delap for this game. Acheampong, James and Badiashille are further doubts, which creates a real issue for Maresca, seeing as he’s running out of possible options at centre back.


📊 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea Key Stats

  • Chelsea won 1-0 at the City Ground last season.

  • Forest have failed to win any of their seven matches under Ange Postecoglou.

  • Chelsea have only kept one clean sheet across their last five matches.

  • Forest have lost two of their three games at the City Ground in the Premier League this season.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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