Sels was forced into making seven saves in the 1-1 draw between the sides at Stamford Bridge with Chelsea having 22 shots overall. This has been a common pattern for Nottingham Forest this season, they’re only averaging 40.5% possession per game in the Premier League this campaign as well as 265.9 passes per game - Forest rank in the bottom three in the Premier League for these two metrics which gives us a pretty clear picture of how they’ll approach this game. 

Chelsea have posted some really positive attacking numbers this season, most notably when it comes to shots on target. Only Liverpool (6.2) are having more shots on target per game in the Premier League season than Chelsea (5.8), they also rank second for expected goals (68.1) which indicates that they’ve been a pretty consistent attacking force this season. 

Sels is having to make 3.22 saves per game in the Premier League this campaign. We are looking for Sels to match his average across the season and this looks likely when considering Chelsea’s impressive underlying attacking numbers this season as well as Forest’s tendency to soak up pressure and invite the opposition to try and break them down.

Madueke scored against Nottingham Forest in the initial meeting between these sides earlier this season which ended in a 1-1 draw. Madueke ended up having six shots in total on that occasion, with two of these efforts finding the target. Chelsea had eight shots on target overall in that fixture. 

Madeuke’s numbers across the season as a whole are pretty promising. He’s had 32 shots on target across his 31 appearances in the Premier League this season, 26 of these have been starts taking his average to 1.47 shots on target per 90. His shot volume is also quite high for a winger (3.63 per 90) which indicates that his first action is to shoot when he gets close to the goal, instead of looking to set up one of his teammates. 

No Chelsea player is averaging more shots on target per game in the Premier League this season than Noni Madueke which reinforces the suggestion that he can be one of Chelsea’s most important players on the final day of the season. His six shots against Nottingham Forest in the meeting between the sides at Stamford Bridge shows that he can find a way to carve through this stubborn Forest backline. Madueke is part of a Chelsea side that is averaging 5.8 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, only Liverpool (6.2 per game) have been finding the target more frequently than Enzo Maresca’s side this campaign.

BTTS landed in the initial meeting between these sides which ended in a 1-1 draw. Forest have had a slightly rocky end to the campaign having won just one of their last five Premier League matches, seeing BTTS in each of their last three games against Crystal Palace, Leicester and West Ham. With so much on the line for both sides, every goal should massively impact the gamestate - neither side is likely to go out with a whimper in what has been the most competitive battle for the Champions League spots in recent memory. 

Chelsea have shown improvement in their defensive numbers this season, conceding 20 goals fewer than they did last campaign with just one game left to play. Enzo Maresca’s side have struggled on the road this season with the majority of their impressive performances this term coming at Stamford Bridge. They’ve conceded 25 goals across their 28 away games this season but have managed to score 28 themselves.

Chelsea must deliver a strong performance to clinch a Champions League place next season, and few Premier League players are as reliable in crucial moments as Cole Palmer. This season, he has notched 23 goal contributions in 36 league appearances and set up Madueke’s goal in the 1-1 draw between these teams at Stamford Bridge earlier in the campaign. As Chelsea’s designated penalty taker, Palmer has hit his stride in recent weeks, with his display against Liverpool standing out as particularly impressive.

After a slight dip in form midway through the season, Palmer has rediscovered his rhythm at just the right time. His creativity, composure in front of goal, and ability to influence big games make him Chelsea’s most dangerous attacking threat. Over the past month, he has been instrumental in key matches, not only with his goal contributions but also with his work rate and decision-making in the final third.

With so much at stake in the race for European football, Chelsea will look to Palmer to provide the spark they need. His confidence should be returning, and his recent performances suggest he’s ready to rise to the occasion once again. If he delivers, he could be the difference maker in securing a top five finish for the Blues.

Morgan Gibbs-White has arguably been Nottingham Forest’s most important player this season. While Chris Wood has rightly grabbed headlines for his impressive goal tally, Gibbs-White has quietly been the creative heartbeat of the team, contributing 15 goals and assists across his 33 Premier League appearances. Averaging 2.01 shots per 90 minutes, he’s been a constant threat in attack, combining flair with end product.

The 24-year-old comes into this game in strong form, having scored in each of his last two matches against Leicester and West Ham, while also adding an assist in those fixtures. His confidence is clearly growing, as evidenced by his willingness to take on shots—he’s registered at least two attempts in each of those recent outings. Notably, Gibbs-White isn’t afraid to test goalkeepers from distance, with 27 of his 61 shots this season (44%) coming from outside the box. His ability to strike from range adds another dimension to Forest’s attack.

With Forest fighting to secure their Premier League status, Gibbs-White’s influence will be crucial. His vision, work rate, and knack for popping up in dangerous areas make him the player most likely to unlock stubborn defenses. If he maintains his current form, he could be the difference-maker in Forest’s survival bid, proving once again why he’s been their standout performer this campaign.

Chelsea’s petulance has been a constant feature of their season. Enzo Maresca has played down suggestions that discipline is an issue for his young side, the numbers suggest that the Chelsea boss may have some work to do to ensure that his team keep their cool on the final day of the Premier League season with so much at stake for the Blues. 

Chelsea have picked up 97 yellow cards in the Premier League this season, the joint most in the division alongside Bournemouth. This works out at around 2.62 cards per game which could increase further here if Chelsea are kept frustrated by a Nottingham Forest side that have only conceded 15 goals across their 18 home games this season, losing only four of these fixtures. 

Chelsea picked up six yellow cards in the initial meeting between these Stamford Bridge with Nottingham Forest leaving the capital with four cautions themselves. There will be moments in this game where emotions are high and that should translate to a high card count, especially for the Blues who have struggled to keep a lid on their emotions all season.