4+ Shots:

Ousmane Dembele has had 39 shots across his eight Champions League games this term. Covering the 2+ line in all eight.

Across the five games in the competition that he’s played 80+ minutes in, he averages 5.60 shots per game – posting 8-6-2-5-7.

Liverpool have conceded 10.12 shots per game in the UCL this term, we think it’s a fair assumption that they concede over that average at the Parc des Princes given the difficulty of the fixture compared to their matches earlier in the tournament.

In Dembele’s eight UCL apps this term, PSG have had 159 shots – of which Dembele’s 39 make up at 32.5% share.

If the Frenchman continues to share that portion of the Parisians’ shot output he’d register three if they reach 10. As mentioned, we’re expecting more than 10 shots to be taken by the hosts and with that increase we’re happy to take Dembele to have four himself at odds of 1.91 to kick off this bet builder.

It’s a nice price when considering Dembele has had five or more shots in four of the five matches in the competition this term where he’s played 80 minutes or more.

Fouled 2+ Times:

Dembele has won 1.38 fouls per 90 in the UCL this season. He has been fouled twice or more in three of the five matches in which he has played 80+ minutes.

The 27-year-old’s positional change to a more central role, as can be seen in his heat map from the first leg of PSG’s play-off round tie with Brest (there was little to play for in the second), should see him occupy spaces that are closer to some of Liverpool’s biggest foulers.

The Reds’ expected midfield trio don’t shy away from challenges.

Alexis Mac Allister – 1.27 fouls per 90 in the 24/25 UCL.

Ryan Gravenberch – 1.23 fouls per 90 in the 24/25 UCL.

Dominik Szoboszlai – only 0.41 fouls per 90 in the 24/25 UCL, however, he missed nearly half of the league phase and his fouls per 90 average in the 24/25 Premier League is 1.65. We expect those two averages to come closer together by the end of the campaign.

2.30 is another nice price to add into our bet builder, especially with Super Sub in reserve, if Dembele is replaced at any point the bet will run up to the full time whistle.

To Be Shown a Card:

Dembele has become a more frequent fixture in the book on UCL nights in recent years, and he may be more susceptible to receiving cards as the focus on him leading by example has intensified this term.

In last season’s Champions League Dembele picked up five yellow cards, which is more, in one season, than the four total cards (all yellow) he had received in his previous eight seasons as a Champions League player.

That’s a clear trend that he’s becoming more ripe for this market and that was made clearer when he was sent off for two yellows in one game v Bayern Munich in late October, when he was booked in the 37th and 57th minute.

Davide Massa has been more card-happy in Serie A than in the Champions League this season, but we expect his card numbers to regress to the mean between now and the end of the season.

In Serie A, he’s given 26.25 fouls per game and 4.17 yellow cards per game across 12 matches. Whereas in the UCL, he’s given just 16.45 fouls per game and 2.14 yellows in seven outings.

A regression to his domestic tendencies on a feisty night in the French capital would see an increased likelihood that Dembele is carded. And we can’t resist the 6.50 available, with Super Sub onside, for this leg, considering some bookies have gone as short as 3.80 on a Dembele card.