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PSG v Auxerre Quick Tip & Preview

PSG v Auxerre Quick Tip & Preview

Friday 26 September, 20253 min read
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Oliver Shaw

Fuelled by a passion for sport and a sharp instinct for uncovering patterns in data, beating the bookies became the perfect outlet for my competitive streak. Now I take pleasure in sharing my finds with ABC punters. I enjoy finding niche angles and betting value in a range of markets and leagues, my favourite being in Serie A.

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PSG v Auxerre Quick Preview Tips
  • PSG v Auxerre
  • Ligue 1
  • 20:05
1 Selections @ 1.73

Goncalo Ramos to Score

Ramos is yet to really find his stride this season, but the way I see it, it’s only a matter of time, particularly given the chances he’s been receiving.

The forward opened his account for the season against Atalanta in the Champions League, and in the absence of Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doué, and Bradley Barcola, he has the opportunity to give Luis Enrique a selection headache with a few good performances.

Only Dembele and Joao Neves have averaged a higher xG per 90 than Ramos (0.3), although this still represents a big downfall from his rate last season (1.15). Over his previous league campaign, Ramos averaged 0.85 goals per 90, and I think he represents value here.

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PSG come into this hoping to bounce back following their first defeat of the season in Le Classique, while Auxerre have made a habit of keeping things tight and low-scoring.

  • PSG have won four of their first five but slipped to a 1-0 defeat against Marseille in Le Classique.

  • Auxerre have taken six points from their opening five games, with both wins being 1-0.

  • The total xG in Auxerre and PSG matches have been the 2nd and 3rd lowest in Ligue 1. This suggests that clear-cut opportunities have been few and far between.


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🔵 Marseille Defeat Halts Perfect PSG Start

Luis Enrique’s men have a lot to live up to after their historic campaign last season, and they’d got off to the perfect start, with four wins out of four in Ligue 1, alongside a 4-0 thrashing of Atalanta in the UCL.

With that in mind, Le Classique couldn’t have come at a much better time for PSG, who travelled to Marseille on Monday, yet even so, they slumped to their first loss of the season. With the distraction of the Ballon D'Or ceremony taking place on the same evening.

Nayef Aguerd capitalised on a blunder from PSG goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier, netting the only goal of the match in the fifth minute. PSG conceded 1.14 xGA, hitting back with only 0.67, of which just 0.36 was from open play.

Although four wins out of five is hardly a poor record, the stats suddenly look significantly less flattering for the Parisians, who rank 10th for xGF, though they do marginally boast the league’s best defensive process (4.9 xGA).


Auxerre Launch Resolute but Goal-Shy Start

Auxerre have picked up six points from their opening five games, recording victories against Lorient and Toulouse, either side of three consecutive losses.

Only Angers and Nantes’ matches have seen fewer goals scored than those of Auxerre, which have averaged just two per game. The xG records suggest this is a pretty accurate summary, with only Nantes and PSG’s games producing fewer expected goals.

Both of Auxerre’s wins ended 1-0, including that against Toulouse last time out. It’s tough to extrapolate too much from that game, given Auxerre went down to 10 men in the 64th minute.

It was an impressive showing in that they managed to shut their opponents out, and probably a good warm-up for this clash, which will likely see them reduced to scraps and forced to dig deep.


📊 PSG v Auxerre H2H

Given Auxerre’s extended stay in France’s second division, there isn’t an abundance of head-to-head form to go off.

Last season, PSG recorded a 3-1 victory at home before being held to a 0-0 draw on the road. Unsurprisingly, Les Parisiens were the dominant force on both occasions, albeit only able to make it count once.

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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.

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