PSG start this match as 1.95 favourites largely due to the respective European form of the two outfits.

Luis Enrique’s side have been dominant at Parc des Princes, where they have won four of their five fixtures. Those victories have all come by multiple goals, with the latest of them coming against La Liga outfit Real Sociedad. Only Newcastle have succeeded in scoring against them in this competition in the French capital this season.

On the other hand, Barcelona have not travelled well. The Catalans have won only one of four away games, including a surprising 3-2 loss against Royal Antwerp in their final group game. Although they picked up a 1-1 draw against Napoli in the last 16, the Serie A champions are a shadow of the team they were last season.

This points to a home victory in this encounter, but it is likely to be a narrow success. Barca are not conceding many goals this season. Indeed, except for the aforementioned Antwerp match, they have not leaked more than one in a Champions League game this season. Furthermore, Barcelona have conceded only one in their last six games in all competitions.

All the attention when it comes to shooting will be on Kylian Mbappe. With six goals in eight appearances, he is naturally seen as the major threat. With 31 shots, including 15 on target, he has twice as many in these categories as PSG’s next-best players.

Mbappe has an extra incentive, too. It is a poorly kept secret that he will join Real Madrid in the summer and so this is his last chance to win the Champions League at PSG. Look for him to shoot often, although exactly how this extra pressure will channel itself in terms of his accuracy is unclear.

What about PSG players to find the target then? Vitinha offers an intriguing option at 1.91. The Portuguese has got forward more regularly in recent matches and has worked the opposing keeper in five of his last seven PSG games, scoring in two of his last three. At 4.5 to score anytime, don’t discount him registering his first Champions League goal.

Marco Asensio, a former Real Madrid player, is the other one to watch but is likely to lack game-time. When he comes on, he tends to replace Ousmane Dembele, who is 2.0 to hit the target. The winger has a high shot count but poor accuracy, yet with 1.38 shots on target per 90 in the Champions League this season he looks long odds to test former team-mate Marc-Andre ter Stegen.

Barcelona are a good deal more balanced. They have hit a similar number of shots as PSG in the competition but do not have a single player in double figures for shots on target yet.

Lamine Yamal’s shot volume is high but his accuracy is poor. The 16-year-old winger has had 19 shots but has hit the target only twice. At 2.2 to have 3 shots, his odds appeal.

Robert Lewandowski remains Barca’s king, though. The Pole’s figures are skewed slightly due to a poor start to the season but he has been back in form since the winter break. He has had shots on target in eight of his last nine Barcelona starts and has scored seven goals in those matches, including in both legs against Napoli.

There is strong value on the veteran to shoot on target once at 1.33, while 2.75 on him to net anytime is worth consideration.

There is not a lot between these sides when it comes to fouls and cards. Both have seen 21 yellow cards (although Barcelona have also seen one red card) while their foul counts both for and against are very similar.

Uncertainty remains over who might play at right back for PSG as Achraf Hakimi is suspended and Nordi Mukiele is very likely out with a head injury. Warren Zaire-Emery has been used there this season and could find himself up against Raphinha, who is fouled more than three times per 90.

If he is used in this role, 2.63 on the youngster committing 2 or more fouls in this game looks a strong option. Carlos Soler is the other likely alternative to be used here, with the Spaniard at 2.30 to commit a couple of fouls.

Vitinha again looks worth considering in this market. He averages 1.77 fouls per 90 and is priced at 2.75 to give away a couple. At 1.36 to commit just one indiscretion, he looks excellent value.

Just as in the shots markets, Barcelona typically spread their fouls out rather evenly.

Again Lamine Yamal offers value, though. The teenager has committed at least one foul in each of his four previous Champions League starts and should be expected to do the same here. At 1.40 to concede a single foul, he is at an excellent price.