A slightly unconventional approach to this market, but one that fits the patterns of both sides. Napoli have developed a worrying “all-or-nothing” trend, particularly away from home, losing their last three matches on the road in all competitions. Their defeat to Torino at the weekend highlighted those ongoing issues, as did their 3-1 loss to Manchester City on matchday one, making it three straight away defeats in the Champions League. Extending the sample back across all competitions and into last season, Napoli have won four, drawn one, and lost three of their last eight away matches, a record that demonstrates a rarity in stalemates.

PSV’s home data supports the same narrative. The Dutch champions have drawn just one of their last 15 home fixtures across all competitions (W9, D1, L5), and notably, their last two UCL home games both ended in heavy defeats (aggregate 2-10). Both sides have shown they either win big or collapse under pressure, so siding with either team to take all three points looks the most pragmatic play here.

Napoli’s attacking intensity and width consistently translate into high corner counts. Across all competitions this season, they average 6.56 corners per game, clearing this line in seven of nine fixtures. The two exceptions may have come away from home, but one was their trip to Manchester City, where an early red card limited attacking rhythm.

PSV’s defensive profile adds confidence to this selection. Despite dominating domestically, they concede 4.67 corners per game, with eight of twelve opponents hitting this line. Against higher-calibre opposition, this rises even further, where both European opponents this season have registered seven corners each.

With both sides likely to play proactively in pursuit of three points, the game should open into an end-to-end contest. That dynamic naturally feeds into a high corner volume for Napoli, who thrive on sustained attacking phases and overlapping wide play.

Saibari remains PSV’s most dependable output player in this market, regardless of where he’s deployed. Whether operating centrally, as a wide forward, or in a deeper creative role, the Moroccan consistently finds shooting opportunities. He’s averaging an impressive 3.87 shots per 90 this season and has registered at least two attempts in all but one game. That sole miss, ironically, came at the weekend against Go Ahead Eagles, to break what has otherwise been an incredible start to the season.

With SuperSub applied, this selection only strengthens. His replacement Ricardo Pepi on the weekend took four shots in that match, giving rise to Saibari’s average attacking output for four per 90. Saibari’s combination of confidence, creativity, and his manager’s faith to consistently start him ensures he’ll again be central to PSV’s attacking threat. Given the game’s expected openness, two or more attempts from him looks a solid inclusion.

The American full-back is PSV’s most aggressive player defensively and will, arguably, face his toughest test of the season here. Dest averages 1.3 fouls per game, with recent returns of 2, 2, 1 and 4, showing a consistent tendency to overcommit in duels.

Up against Scott McTominay (last season’s Serie A Player of the Year) his discipline will be tested even further. The Scot’s close control and driving runs draw contact regularly, as reflected in his 2.64 fouls won per 90 this season. His ability to shield possession and dictate tempo makes him difficult to contain without ill-discipline.

Given Dest’s eagerness to engage early and the technical quality of his direct opponent, backing him to commit multiple fouls feels a strong, value-driven play. Expect him to be drawn into repeated challenges as he tries to stifle Napoli’s rhythm down that flank.