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Newcastle v Benfica Bet Builder Tips, 36/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Newcastle v Benfica Bet Builder Tips, 36/1 Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Monday 20 October, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

In this article...

Newcastle welcome Benfica with Eddie Howe’s side looking to build on their 4-0 win over USG.

Benfica are building under Jose Mourinho, who has only lost one of his first six games in charge. This loss did come in the Champions League against Chelsea.

Check out these Newcastle v Benfica Betting Stats ahead of kick-off at St James' Park.

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Newcastle v Benfica Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Newcastle v Benfica
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
4 Selections @ 2.92

Newcastle to Win

I watched Benfica in their 1-0 defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, and they look polished but lacked end product, which I think will cost them here. They fashioned some decent chances against Chelsea, but none of these fell to their danger man, Pavlidis, leading to Benfica being blunted in the final third.

If Newcastle can neutralise their star striker, then it is hard to see where the goals come for the away side with their top scorer after Pavlidis only having two goals so far this term. Eddie Howe will have been frustrated with his side's 2-1 defeat against Brighton last time out, which just interrupted the momentum that looked to be building for Newcastle with back-to-back wins before the international break.

This is a winnable game for Newcastle; their next two assignments in the Champions League are against Athletic Club and Marseille, so this is a period in the season where Newcastle can look to push on and get some solid results to be within a chance of finishing in the top 24.

Over 1.5 Benfica Cards

Benfica received five yellow cards in their 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in their most recent Champions League assignment from 14 fouls at Stamford Bridge. We’re likely to see a similar level of tenacity from Mourinho’s side here, with an away assignment at St James’ Park the perfect environment for cards.

Newcastle drew four cards from USG in their most recent Champions League assignment and managed to draw the same number from Barcelona in their opening assignment of the European campaign. This has long been a strength of Newcastle; only Tottenham and Aston Villa won more fouls than the Magpies last season, so it’s a strong part of their game which they can use to their advantage here against a reckless Benfica side.

As well as drawing 2+ cards from their opponents in both of their Champions League matches so far this term, Newcastle have also drawn 2+ cards from their opponents in half of their Premier League matches so far this season. They drew double digits for fouls in five of these games, which is further evidence that they can tempt Benfica into a high foul and card count, as they have done in their other Champions League matches.

Nick Woltemade to have 1+ Shots on Target

Woltemade has made a superb start to life at Newcastle with five goals across his eight appearances in all competitions for the club already. One of these strikes came in the Champions League against USG last time out, which is a goal that will fill him with confidence ahead of this clash.

Woltemade scored with a wonderful flick against Brighton as Newcastle fell to a 2-1 defeat against the Seagulls. He’s had four shots on target across his five appearances in the Premier League so far this term (0.91 per 90) and can look to extend that record here against a Benfica side that are expected to be on the back foot for the majority of this encounter.

Woltemade averaged 1.44 shots on target per 90 across his 28 appearances in the Bundesliga last term, with this record returning 12 goals for the unique forward. He’s scored in each of his last four matches for Newcastle, and netted for Germany over the international break, so he should have plenty of confidence in front of goal.

Enzo Barrenechea to Commit 1+ Fouls

Barrenechea has played the full 90 minutes in each of Benfica’s last four matches across all competitions, picking up three yellow cards across these games. He committed one foul against Chelsea in Benfica’s most recent Champions League assignment, and that was enough to earn him a yellow card in that meeting.

He’s committed 16 fouls across his seven appearances in Liga Portugal this season (2.40 per 90), which makes for really appealing reading when considering the strength of Newcastle’s midfield when it comes to winning fouls. Barrenechea will line up against Tonali, Guimaraes, and Joelinton, who are arguably the most complete midfield trio in the Premier League.

Guimaraes in particular, is really strong when it comes to winning fouls. The Brazilian has won 22 fouls across his seven Premier League appearances already this season (3.16 per 90), as well as being hauled down three times in the Champions League. He will cause Barrenechea real problems, who is the designated destroyer in this Benfica side, as his recent stats further back up.

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Newcastle v Benfica Best Longshot Bets
  • Newcastle v Benfica
  • Champions League
  • 20:00
3 Selections @ 12.08

Vangelis Pavlidis to Score Anytime

Pavlidis scored both of Benfica’s goals against Chaves last time out to end a brief spell without a goal for the 26-year-old. He’s Benfica’s top scorer so far this season with five goals in Liga Portugal and carries a big burden for the Portuguese side, with goalscorers in short supply for Mourinho’s team.

Pavlidis netted 29 goals across his 53 appearances for Benfica last season. Seven of these goals came across 12 appearances in the Champions League, which is a record that shows that Pavlidis can produce at this level, especially against a side that is not used to regularly being in the Champions League.

Pavlidis also appears to have the trust of Mourinho, having started and played the 90 minutes in the majority of his games under the new manager so far. If Pavlidis doesn’t quite get to see out the full 90 minutes, then his most likely replacement is Benfica’s second top scorer in Ivanovic, who has netted three times this season for the Portuguese giants.

Joelinton to be Shown a Card

Joelinton has picked up a yellow card in both of Newcastle’s Champions League matches so far this term against USG and Barcelona. He’s naturally an aggressive player in the middle of the park and will line up against an equally combative midfield duo of Ricard Rios and Enzo Barrenechea.

The Benfica duo drew three fouls from Chelsea’s midfield, with Benfica forcing Chelsea into committing 13 fouls in total. Joelinton is likely to be roped into a similar battle with the Brazilian committing eight fouls across his six appearances in the Premier League so far this term (1.61 per 90), picking up two yellow cards in the process.

Joelinton picked up 10 yellow cards across his 29 Premier League appearances last season, which was the most of any Newcastle player. He’s shown real promise when it comes to backing him for cautions in the Champions League, with a yellow card in both of Newcastle's matches in the competition so far.

Fredrik Aursnes to have 1+ Shots

This is a pretty generous price. Aursnes has been playing in a more advanced role since Mourinho joined the club and has had six shots across his eight appearances in Liga Portugal this term (0.75 per 90).

Aursnes played just behind the striker in Benfica’s 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in their most recent Champions League game and had one shot. He also had an effort in Benfica’s 3-2 loss to Qarabag in their opening Champions League game of the season.

Aursnes averaged 1.07 shots per 90 across his 29 appearances in Liga Portugal last term. This record returned three goals for Aursnes, who is a very versatile player; he can play as a fullback as well as any of the midfield roles, making him an invaluable member of Mourinho’s squad.

Aursnes had a further 13 shots across his 12 Champions League appearances last season (1.18 per 90), strengthening the case for him to have at least one shot in this encounter.

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📂 Newcastle v Benfica Cheat Sheet

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📈 Newcastle v Benfica Form & Tactics

Newcastle looked to be back on the right track with back-to-back wins before the international break against USG and Nottingham Forest, but their optimism has been curbed slightly by a 2-1 defeat against Brighton, which once again exposed some of the issues that the Magpies face at the moment.

Their record at St James’ Park has been pretty black and white in the early stages of the season. They’ve won two and lost two of their four Premier League matches at home, and also lost their opening game in the Champions League at home against Barcelona. Newcastle should be optimistic about their chances of getting all three points here. Benfica are still adapting to the approach of Mourinho, which will offer the Magpies a real opportunity here.

Benfica have only lost one of their six matches under the tutelage of Jose Mourinho so far, but his spell has been far from convincing up until this point. Their victories have come against Chaves, Gil Vicente, and AVS Futebol, which are all sides that you would expect Benfica to beat pretty comfortably.

They did return to winning ways in the cup last time out, dispatching Chaves 2-0 thanks to a brace from Pavlidis. A worrying pattern that Mourinho will want to change as soon as possible is that Benfica have been struggling in matches against more elite sides. They drew 0-0 against Porto and failed to beat Chelsea in the Champions League, though it is still early in Mourinho’s tenure, so these results could be down to a lack of familiarity between Mourinho and his players.


📔 Newcastle v Benfica Formation & Team News

Newcastle line up in an identifiable 4-3-3 with their main strength being their midfield trio of Tonali, Guimaraes, and Joelinton. These three are essential to Newcastle and frequently involved whenever Newcastle find success, especially against the more elite sides, which they’ll face in this competition.

Another strength of Newcastle’s, which won’t be as prominent here, is the role of their fullbacks. Both Livramento and Hall are out for this game, so the Magpies will miss their overlapping runs and delivery into the box, which has become such a pivotal part of their play. We can still expect balls into the box with Nick Woltemade waiting in the middle, but the fullback duo are a big miss for Eddie Howe’s side.

Benfica have been lining up in a 4-2-3-1 under Jose Mourinho, which shifts to a 4-4-2 when they don’t have the ball. Mourinho is still quite a conservative and pragmatic manager; his side won’t take too many risks and look to keep Newcastle contained while looking for opportunities on the counter attack and in the latter stages of the game.

Benfica have long-term absentees in Bah and Silva, but Mourinho has the bulk of the squad available to pick from. I’d anticipate him going with a similar lineup to the one he went with at Stamford Bridge, which would set up a midfield battle well worth keeping an eye on.


📊 Newcastle v Benfica Key Stats

  • Jose Mourinho has lost just one of his six matches in charge of Benfica.

  • Newcastle won their most recent Champions League match 4-0.

  • Pavlidis is Benfica’s top scorer this season with nine goals across all competitions.

  • Nick Woltemade has scored in his last four games for Newcastle.


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* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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