Pellegrini offers the clearest value you’ll find in the Derby del Sole fouls market, with the Italian midfielder averaging 1.55 fouls committed per 90 – the most of any Roma player predicted to start.

He has slipped up 3 times in both of his last 2 league appearances (over 45 minutes) and has sinned in 12 separate matches in Serie A, despite starting only 14.

Pellegrini is expected to battle it out in a congested midfield, consisting of McTominay, Lobotka, and Anguissa who average 1.64, 1.16, and 0.98 fouls drawn per 90 respectively.

We also expect that the favour will be returned to Pellegrini, who’s been a consistent asset in the fouls-drawn market, averaging 1.31 per 90 minutes.

Across all competitions, Pellegrini has made 15 appearances lasting an hour or longer, managing to draw at least 1 foul in 13 of those games. He’s won no fewer than 20 free-kicks for his side over the period, despite coming off early on 9 occasions.

The aforementioned trio of Napoli midfielders boast a combined average of 3.65 fouls committed per 90 minutes, with McTominay boasting the highest rate of 1.69.

Anguissa is one of many Napoli players who are particularly suited to Conte’s system, and has enjoyed the freedom afforded to him. The central midfielder boasts an average of 1.43 shots per 90 minutes in the league, with around 42% of those coming from outside the box.

He’s fired off at least 1 shot in 14 of his last 17 matches for Napoli, including in 7 of the most recent 8 fixtures. Across those 8 games, Anguissa has had at least 2 efforts in 5, finding a way onto the scoresheet in his latest clash against Juventus, having sent 5 efforts towards goal.

Roma have averaged a worrying 12.3 shots conceded per game, so it’s far from a stretch to suggest Anguissa could take just one here.

Conte’s sides typically dominate the corner count and Napoli have been no exception since his arrival, averaging 6.0 corners per game in the league. They’ve won at least 4 corners in 16 of their 22 league games, most recently racking up 9 against Juventus. In the reverse fixture earlier in the season, Napoli won 8 corners.

Roma’s record in this department also merits intrigue given their average of 4.09 conceded per game, which is actually more than they win themselves. Looking at their last 5 tricky league games against Bologna, Lazio, Milan, Atalanta, and Sunday’s opponents, Napoli, the Giallorissi have conceded at least 4 in each outing.

McTominay’s addition to the Napoli squad has worked like a charm, with his adjusted positioning affording him a significantly greater number of offensive opportunities. This has culminated in him averaging 2.24 shots per 90, second only to Neres amongst Napoli-predicted starters.

In his last 16 starts across all competitions, McTominay has been able to fire off at least 2 shots in 11 matches. In the reverse fixture, he exceeded that figure, sending 3 shots Roma’s way.

Saelemakers is another player who looks to have been overpriced in the fouls market, with only Pellegrini and Mancini averaging more fouls committed than his 1.24 per 90.

Saelemakekers has sinned at least once in 5 of his last 6 appearances, averaging a foul every 45 minutes over this period. Another notable trend is his tendency to commit more fouls against tougher opposition. He’s played 5 matches against the top 8 in Serie A, slipping up at least once in each – including in a short 19-minute cameo against Juventus.

He will have to deal with Neres and McTominay, with the latter averaging 1.69 fouls drawn per 90 minutes – the most of any player on the pitch.

Hummels matches Saelemakers’ average of 1.24 fouls per 90 minutes, and at similar odds, presents a lot of value too.

Across his last 8 games, Hummels has committed at least 1 foul on 7 occasions, only failing to do so as Roma cruised to a 2-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt. He’s likely not to have it as easy on Sunday against Napoli, who average 11.59 fouls drawn per 90.

Lukaku will be Hummels’ closest opponent, whose form has picked up a bit in recent matches, boasting 5 goal contributions in his last 4 games, having managed only 2 in the 10 before. Lukaku’s average of 1.33 fouls drawn per 90 is second only to McTominay amongst Napoli players.

The final selection of the second bet builder is on McTominay to commit 2 or more fouls, he enters this match in the midst of a 12-game fouling streak for Napoli.

He started 11 of those games, during which he sinned at least twice on 7 occasions. This is fairly consistent with his average of 1.69 fouls per 90 minutes, although we think it could get worse for him on Sunday given his potential matchups.

A quick look at McTominay’s heatmap will tell you he operates very wide for a central midfielder, becoming a borderline box-to-box, left-mid at times.

Unfortunately for him, that means he’ll be tasked with duelling any of Dybala, Koné, or Saelemaekers – Roma’s right-sided players who coincidentally are their 3 most fouled. They average 3.62, 3.35, and 1.86 fouls drawn per 90, and could seal McTominay’s fate with regards to this market.