AS Roma come into this clash as the underdogs and as a result they feel slightly overpriced and are certainly worth exploring here against a very inconsistent and underperforming Napoli side. Although the hosts may not win the game, they are taken on the Double Chance market and should have enough resilience to bounce back from the disappointing defeat to Bologna last time out.

That loss was actually their first in the last seven matches across all competitions as Mourinho has really got his side playing well following a poor start to their season. However, when delving a little deeper, it’s AS Roma’s home form that really catches the eye as they have only lost once here all season and despite not beating any of the big sides in the division, that winning mentality is key.

There is also a sense of a revenge mission to this game. Napoli won both of their encounters last season winning this fixture by a narrow 1-0 margin and the completing a 2-1 win on home turf, and Mourinho will be keen to prevent that happening again. It helps that Napoli are not at the same level as when they collected the Scudetto last season and this might be a good time to play them.

Predictions:

🏆 Roma double chance @ 1.50

Having been dismissed for a straight red card in the recent match with Fiorentina, Romelu Lukaku is in line to be recalled to the starting eleven against Napoli having missed out against Bologna, and that should be a welcome relief in forward areas, especially having drawn a blank in that game. AS Roma’s top scorer this season should influence proceedings again here, and is fancied to go well.

The statistics also support this prediction when looking at Lukaku’s shots, shots on target and goal contributions so far this season. The Belgian ace has racked up a total of 27 shots in Serie A this campaign with eleven of those shots testing the opposition goalkeeper. That equates to around two shots per game and with Napoli giving up 3.3 shots on target per 90 mins, Lukaku could certainly profit.

In the absence of regular strike partner Paulo Dybala, the spotlight will firmly be on AS Roma’s main man and there is every chance the forward bags himself a goal. The former Chelsea man has scored goals at every club he’s played at and AS Roma is no exception with Lukaku already helping himself to seven goals in just thirteen games in the league, while also netting frequently in Europe.

Predictions:

🎯 Romelu Lukaku to have 1+ shots on target @ 1.44

⚽ Romelu Lukaku to score or assist @ 2.30

One interesting angle to focus on in this game is the corner market. While it’s easy to hone in on the fact that Napoli lead the league for the most number of corners won, there is plenty of value in exploring the home side, especially on the corner match bet. With the home crowd on side here, and how Napoli have been playing of late, AS Roma are fancied to be on top in the game.

That would inevitably lead to more corners, and AS Roma are winning their fair share this season, averaging 5.06 per game having taken 81 in their sixteen matches to date. Couple that with the fact that Napoli give up an average of 4 corners per game (having conceded 67 in their sixteen matches) and it’s easy to see why the home side could easily rack up a few in this heated battle.

The visitors also conceded six in the Coppa Italia defeat to Frosinone and a further three at home against lowly Cagliari in their last Serie A match. Furthermore, they also gave away six against Braga and lost the corner match bet in that one, so it’s not inconceivable that Mourinho’s side see a few here and they could potentially edge more corners than their opponents, and that’s inviting at greater odds.

Predictions:

🚩 Over 3.5 Roma corners @ 1.36

🚩 Over 4.5 Roma corners @ 1.85

🚩 Roma corner match bet @ 2.00

AS Roma accumulated plenty of fouls during the two fixtures played between these sides last season. In fact, they drew the attention of the referee fourteen times in each game and there is plenty of reason to expect more of the same again in this latest encounter, especially with the home side keen to get back to winning ways on home soil, and a few players certainly attract interest.

While Romelu Lukaku is fancied to have a good game up front for the hosts, the powerful forward can also put himself about somewhat, and that often draws attention from the referee. The Belgian international has already racked up twelve fouls in the league at a rate of one per game and he’s up against a robust pairing of Amir Rrahmani and Juan Jesus both of which can draw the odd foul.

At left back for AS Roma, Evan Ndicka is enjoying a solid debut season in Italy under the stewardship of José Mourinho and has become an ever present feature of this defence. However, at times he has looked vulnerable and with the trickery and pace that Napoli possess on that flank in the shape of Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Matteo Politano, the youngster could be in for a busy night indeed. With the Ivorian averaging over a foul per 90 (1.02), a foul at 1.73 looks great value.

Predictions:

🛑 Romelu Lukaku to commit 1+ fouls @ 1.50

🛑 Evan Ndicka to commit + fouls @ 1.73