Respected pundits are falling over themselves to laud praise on the job Interim Manager, Omer Riza is pulling off at Cardiff. After having a torrid August and September, since October 1st Cardiff have P7 W4 D2 L1 = 14 points from a possible 21. It’s seen them drag themselves up, from being cut off at the bottom of the table to being outside of the relegation zone. Cardiff have scored eleven goals in those seven matches after only scoring twice in the seven that came before.

Blackburn are four without a win and haven’t registered a goal in those four games. But their xG creation has been fine in patches. 0.89xG versus West Brom, 1.43xG versus Watford, 0.61xG versus Sheffield United and 2.56 xG versus Stoke. In fact the Blackburn performance against Stoke was described in places online as their best of the season, even though they lost 2-0. By all accounts, Stoke stopper Viktor Johansson was on top form.

Cardiff matches since the start of October average 2 goals per game. Blackburn’s Championship matches this season also average 2 goals per game. There is cause for optimism that the pair can muster up two goals or more on Saturday.

I can’t deny that I’m an admirer of Middlesbrough and Michael Carrick. I also can’t deny that I’ve reservations and question marks about Luton and Rob Edwards.

Middlesbrough, in my opinion, are among the best four teams in the division with Leeds, Sunderland and Sheffield United. Boro may be 8th in the table, but they won’t be outside of the playoffs places for long. Their data is so impressive that any kind of progression towards the numbers is going to see them rise league places.

Although the underlying data is well known regarding Middlesbrough, it’s worth highlighting exactly how good their attacking numbers are. Total xG, 1st, 26.7xG, 3.7xG more than 2nd placed Leeds. Touches in the opposition box, 1st, 493 touches, 101 more than 2nd placed Leeds. Shots on target per game, 2nd, 5.0 SoT per game, 0.3 SoT behind 1st placed Leeds. Big chances created, 3rd, 35 chances, 5 behind 1st placed Leeds.

Luton don’t take my eye, and haven’t all season. Early on they looked to have lost their identity and were playing games in a passive manner rather than aggressive. They are back to approaching a style similar to what we’ve accustomed to with over the last couple season’s but I find it hard to decipher why it took Rob Edwards so long to realise that he was going away from a tried and tested formula initially.

The data behind their results would have you thinking that they are better than their current league placing of 19th. But Luton don’t come close to putting up the numbers that Middlesbrough are.

It’s probably frustrating for Boro fans to see and hear such praise without having the points tally to show for it but I would encourage patience. They are going in the right direction.

Millwall are top of the five match form table with a draw and four consecutive 1-0 wins over Plymouth, Swansea, Burnley and Leeds. The run has propelled Millwall into the playoff places ahead of Saturday’s date with Stoke.

As you can see by the low margin scorelines. Millwall’s run of wins has been built upon strong defensive foundations. In the four 1-0 wins they have given up xGA of 0.63, 1.93, 0.20 and 0.87. Maybe not staggering numbers at first look but these opponents, at the time of writing, three of these opponents are inside the division’s Top 10, Burnley and Leeds – 4th and 3rd. And game state must also be taken into account. Millwall took the lead in the 13th, 90th, 52nd and 40th minute of these matches. If we ignore the 1.93xGA Swansea game with the 90th minute winner, that’s just 1.7xGA across three matches when the opposition would have been chasing the game for 165 minutes plus any injury time.

Personnel wise, Japhet Tanganga is proving himself to be one of the best central defenders in the division following his summer transfer from Tottenham.

Stoke do carry a threat, especially individually. Million Manhoef, Tommy Cannon, Lewis Koumas, Jun-Ho Bae are all players that Millwall have to be wary of. Millwall will play with men behind the ball and attack on the transition. They can stifle Stoke and frustrate the key individuals.

Numbers wise, Millwall matches in The Championship this season average 2.07 goals per game. Stoke’s average 2.5. They’d be more confidence behind the selection if the home and away teams were reversed here as Stoke’s home matches this season see the goal average rise to 3.42 compared to 2.25 at The Den.

Saturday afternoon at The Pirelli Stadium see two managerless clubs come to head-to-head in a legitimate relegation six-pointer. After thirteen matches, bottom of the table Burton are still winless in the league, their tally of five points have all come in the way of draws. Shrewsbury don’t fare much better. They are 23rd in the table, three points ahead of Burton having played a game more, Their points have come from two wins and two draws.

Both teams have poor numbers for the attacking and defensive phases of the game. Lets look at the attacking numbers first. Goals per game – Burton 18th, Shrewsbury, 19th. Total xG – Burton 22nd, Shrewsbury 14th. Shots on target – Burton 16th, Shrewsbury 24th. Big chances created – Burton 15th, Shrewsbury 13th. Touches in the opponents box – Burton 24th, Shrewsbury 22nd.

And the defensive numbers. Goals conceded per game – Burton 22nd, Shrewsbury 20th . Clean sheets – Burton 15th, Shrewsbury 24th. xGA – Burton 18th, Shrewsbury 24th.

So what gives when two teams meet who can’t create and score and can’t stop chances being created and conceding. My thought is that it’s the chance creation and attacking numbers that lose out. There was a similar example on Tuesday night when Plymouth hosted Portsmouth in the Championship. Both teams numbers were relatable to Burton’s and Shrewsbury’s and we witnessed a game where despite two unreliable defences there wasn’t enough quality for lots of chance creation. The game finished 1-0 to Plymouth with a late goal after having the look of a 0-0 for the majority of the game.

Two of the three teams promoted from League Two last season meet in Wales on Saturday lunchtime. Both Wrexham and Mansfield have had great starts to their campaign at the next level up with Wrexham currently sitting in 3rd place and Mansfield 4th. Wrexham have 25 points. Mansfield, who have played a game less, have 24 points.

The match is very difficult to call. Mansfield have some injury doubts over Elliot Hewitt and talisman, Lee Gregory. Gregory is considered 50-50 to play at the weekend. If he misses out, he’ll be a giant loss as his seven league goals this season represent 35% of all Mansfield league goals.

The angle I’m taking for a selection is to oppose goals. Wrexham have conceded just four at home all season – an average of 0.67 goals conceded per home game. They’ve already kept home clean sheets against Reading, Shrewsbury and Huddersfield. Wrexham’s home attacking numbers are great but I want to give some respect to Mansfield’s away record. The Stags have won four and lost one of their five away games this season. Four of the six goals they’ve conceded on the road came in one game – at Lincoln. They’ve kept two away clean sheets, against Northampton and Crawley.

I respect both teams and suspect they respect each other greatly too. I don’t expect this one to become a shootout.

Only Tranmere have scored fewer League Two goals than Harrogate this season. Only Harrogate and Tranmere have scored fewer goals than Morecambe. This is another game where I’m expecting a low scoring game.

Matches involving Harrogate in League Two this season average 2.14 goals per game. Harrogate themselves average 0.79 goals per game. Matches involving Morecambe this season average 2.64 goals per game with Morecambe themselves averaging 0.86 goals per game.

12/14 of Harrogate’s League Two matches have seen under 3.5 goals and 10/14 Morecambe matches. At home Harrogate have only scored six times in seven matches. Morecambe have only scored four times in seven away games.

It’s now nine games without a win for Carlisle who share the League Two relegation zone with Morecambe. Mike Williamson, fresh from MK Dons has inherited a squad that is ill-performed to play his patient, possession style, wing back heavy football and is already under an element of pressure. There isn’t just a disconnect between head coach and players. There’s also an increasing gap forming in between the fan base.

Carlisle have failed to score in six of their last nine matches. It’s hard to envisage that their confidence could get any lower. They rank 21st in the league for goals scored but, this shows a level of underperformance as they are 12th for xG, 15th for shots on target, 12th for big chances created and 3rd for touches in the opponents box. However, until Carlisle can show something in attacking areas to bring their results up in line with the data, which isn’t good – just not as bad as the results, then they must continue to be opposed.

Salford’s underlying numbers are actually worse than Carlisle’s but one thing they have currently is confidence. This is born from momentum gained in their last four matches – a 1-1 draw with Crewe, two 2-1 wins over Swindon and Colchester and a 2-2 draw with Fleetwood. The eight points gained from a possible twelve has seen Salford rise to 12th in the league table, just two points away from the playoff places.

Whilst the numbers suggest that Salford won’t maintain their current results it’s difficult to piece together a narrative that Carlisle will be the ones to advantage of them.