Cologne v RB Leipzig
With Bayern Munich not playing until Sunday, RB Leipzig have an opportunity to top the Bundesliga should Union Berlin fail to beat Mainz and Marco Rose’s side beat Cologne on Saturday afternoon. With seven points from a possible nine, which included a 1-1 draw against Bayern to start 2023, it’s possible that RB Leipzig may not have a better chance to win the Bundesliga.
Even without Christopher Nkunku, the Bundesliga’s top scorer, RB Leipzig are playing some magnificent football – only Bayern (11) create more chances than Leipzig (8) per 90 this season, and so we could be in for a goal fest at the RheinEnergieStadion.
Cologne have been involved in some thrillers at home this season. They kickstarted 2023 with a 7-1 win against Werder Bremen, after just seven shots on target. They’ve also enjoyed impressive 3-2 wins against Borussia Dortmund and Augsburg. But whilst free-flowing in the final third and quick in their transitions, they’re susceptible to allowing goals at the other end.
They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their eight home games in the Bundesliga this season, whilst their games against RB Leipzig tend to involve goals. Three of the last four meetings have all finished with Over 2.5 goals and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar outcome.
Although 10 points behind Eintracht Frankfurt, who occupy the final European spot, Cologne will have every belief that they can qualify for European football in successive seasons – in front of a boisterous home crowd, anything is possible. But whilst it will spur Steffen Tigges, Florian Kainz and Co. in the final third, expect their gung-ho philosophy to leave gaps in the defensive third that Timo Werner will be able to capitalise on. Over 2.5 Goals offers excellent value here.
Roma v Empoli
AS Roma are coming into this one in a position that they certainly did not expect to be in. They have just been knocked out of the Coppa Italia in the quarter-final by Cremonese, who are yet to win a Serie A game yet this season after 20 attempts.
That being said, Roma were starting to look like they were finding some rhythm in Serie A before the defeats against Napoli and Cremonese. The Giallorossi had won three and drawn one of their last four before the 2-1 defeat against the league leaders, a game in which they actually played very well and were probably worthy of a point.
There was a raft of changes ahead of the Cremonese game and it clearly upset the balance of the team. For that reason, they should be able to quickly get back to their improved selves against an Empoli side who are in a good patch of form but are beatable.
The Azzurri are up to 10th after two wins and three draws in their last five league games, but they are a team that Roma should not have any issues beating. They still don’t look to be in a position to batter teams, but a narrow victory and a clean sheet would make the players and fans feel that the events of the past week are behind them and the fight for the top four is still on.
Atletico Madrid v Getafe
We’re at the halfway stage of the LaLiga season, with every club having played 19 games, and Atlético Madrid are barely inside the top four after what has been a disappointing campaign overall. But, they have an excellent opportunity to start the second half of the season on the front foot, as they play Diego Simeone’s favourite opponent: Getafe. Atleti comfortably dispatched Los Azulones 3-0 on the opening weekend of the season and now they host the struggling side from southern Madrid on Saturday evening.
Getafe have lost five in a row in all competitions and the expectation in that part of the Spanish capital is that Quique Sánchez Flores will oversee a defeat at the Estadio Civítas Metropolitano on Saturday and then be sacked on Sunday or Monday.
Given the historical record between these two teams, a home win is indeed likely. In Diego Simeone’s 22 meetings with Getafe as a coach, he has won 19 and draw three, with Atleti scoring 43 goals and conceding just four. Throughout these years, Getafe’s style of play has always suited Atlético to a tee.
Given that Atlético didn’t have a midweek fixture this week, and have every member of their squad available, they should add to that impressive record on Saturday.
Borussia Monchengladbach v Schalke 04
After failure to win successive games to start 2023, Borussia Monchengladbach enjoyed an impressive display against Hoffenheim last weekend which resulted in a 4-1 win in Sinsheim. It’s a win that put Daniel Farke’s side to within seven points of Eintracht Frankfurt, who occupy the UEFA Europa Conference League spot, and Die Fohlen will want to keep pressure on the teams around them with a win against Schalke in the Bundesliga Topspiel on Saturday evening.
Operating in a 4-2-3-1, Gladbach were clinical against Hoffenheim. Six chances resulted in four goals, and Jonas Hofmann scored a brace to take his tally to seven goals and five assists in 15 Bundesliga games.
Playing a wide-right role, Hofmann is key to Farke’s possession-based gameplan, with the 30-year-old composed in the final third and quick at transitioning the ball. Only Bayern Munich (11) and RB Leipzig (8) average more chances created per 90 than Gladbach (7) and against a Schalke side that leaks goals, Marcus Thuram, who averages 1.82 shots on target per 90 – the most in the Bundesliga – could get off the mark for the year. Expect Gladbach to create several chances against the bottom-placed club.
No club has scored less (14), and only Bochum (44) have conceded more than Schalke (41) this season, but they’ll take some positives from their 0-0 draw against Cologne on Sunday. Rodrigo Zalazar returned following an injury and was Schalke’s most creative player in the 20 minutes he played.
But with just two points from a possible 24 and the worst away record in the Bundesliga, it’s difficult to see how S04 can come away with anything here. Farke’s Gladbach have won six of their nine home games this season, and it’s difficult to imagine anything other than a Gladbach win.
Sassuolo v Atalanta
Whilst a certain other fixture in Milan will be the one that grabs the headlines this weekend, this match between Sassuolo and Atalanta could be even more fun to watch. To put it simply, both of them are able to score a lot of goals.
Sassuolo have been in a terrible run of form despite looking like they could score against anyone, but they finally got their break as they battered AC Milan 5-2 at San Siro last weekend. Domenico Berardi was involved in four of the goals, Armand Lauriente netted a penalty which should boost his confidence, and they looked frightening going forward.
They are coming up against an Atalanta team that has found a brilliant patch of form which has launched them back into the Champions League places. They have won three of their last five, drawing the other two, and are scoring an abundance of goals with Ademola Lookman as their talisman.
As was pointed out by Opta, Ademola Lookman scored in the reverse match against Sassuolo and has netted 12 goals so far. Since the 1999/2000 season, only five players have reached as many goals in their debut season in Serie A in their first 20 appearances and they are Romelu Lukaku, Cristiano Ronaldo, Krzysztof Piatek, Diego Milito and Andriy Shevchenko.
He will be crucial again and with the way these two teams are playing, expect an Atalanta victory and some goals from both sides to entertain the fans.
Real Betis v Celta Vigo
Real Betis play at home to Celta Vigo on Saturday night and should be considered heavy favourites, but the Green and Whites are priced at 2.25 to secure the victory. This could prove to be great value, as Real Betis aren’t actually playing as poorly as their recent form might suggest on first glance.
The form book will show three wins and four defeats from seven Real Betis games in 2023, but two of those ‘defeats’ were penalty shootout losses after draws and it should also be kept in mind that Barcelona were responsible for two of those setbacks, such as with the 2-1 loss to the Catalans on Wednesday. Manuel Pellegrini has had to deal with various injuries during that run, but he now has everyone fit and healthy, except possibly for Nabil Fekir, who’ll be a late fitness decision.
Celta Vigo, meanwhile, have improved since Carlos Carvalhal took over as coach just before the World Cup pause, looking much more solid in a back five, but they still haven’t been very convincing on the road. In three away games under Carvalhal, they’ve won one, drawn one and lost one, but that victory was a 1-0 win away at rock bottom Elche, who every half-decent side should be defeating. There is definitely value here in backing Real Betis to defeat Celta, the sixth-worst away team in LaLiga.
Rennes v Lille
Rennes’ home matches tend to produce goals, and the probability is that Saturday’s fixture against Lille will be an entertaining affair. Indeed, only two of their 11 Ligue 1 fixtures this season at Roazhon Park have failed to yield at least three goals.
The Breton side defied injury issues to run out 3-0 winners against Strasbourg in midweek, but they are likely to find this a trickier encounter. Although former LOSC player Martin Terrier is out injured, Rennes retain significant firepower, with Amine Gouiri underlining that in midweek as he scored twice in the first half. Karl Toko-Ekambi’s full debut was also encouraging in this capacity.
Lille, on the other hand, were held to a scoreless draw against Clermont. They were missing top scorer Jonathan David because of a fractured hand, but they are hopeful that he returns for this match, which would make a big difference to their attacking potential.
LOSC will also welcome the chance to play an attack-minded side. They have been shutout in three of their last five matches but have played pragmatic opponents in the form of Brest, Nice and Clermont in these games. A more attacking rival should give them room to target, and that should make them more dangerous.
Eleven of Rennes’ last 13 Ligue 1 matches have brought more than 2.5 goals. Although their 1-1 draw in Lille in November was not one of those, that match still boasted an xG of 3.2. Look for this game to fall back into the pattern of those established last season, when both saw at least three goals.
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Written by an Andy verified content writer
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