Charlton Athletic v AFC Wimbledon
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Saturday 5th February – 3:00PM KO
Charlton Athletic will be hoping to break into the top half of League One in victory over AFC Wimbledon on Saturday.
Mark Robinson’s men only have a two point cushion over the bottom four but have happy memories from their last trip to The Valley, a 1-0 win in the Carabao Cup first round in August. The Dons have failed to capitalise on their enterprising start to the campaign and are trending the wrong way, whereas the Addicks have picked up substantially since Johnnie Jackson took the reins in late October.
Strong defensive displays have been a theme of the South Londoners’ home games with the Addicks seeing under 2.5 goals in six of their seven home league games since Jackson’s appointment. The same low scoring trend has cropped up in seven of their last ten in all competitions, with the same statistic also applying to the visitors.
Addicks top scorer Jayden Stockley remains sidelined with a hip injury and Ryan Inniss has returned to the heart of the back three to great effect in recent weeks. In five of the seven home league games under Jackson, the Addicks have also kept a clean sheet and if it was not for an error from Craig MacGillivray on Monday evening, they would have achieved a shutout in their 2-1 win at Portsmouth
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Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals, 1.73 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
Morecambe v Bolton
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Saturday 5th February – 3:00PM KO
Bolton Wanderers have been very impressive in patches in their first season since promotion from League Two. Ian Evatt’s men have recently addressed a terrible run from the back end of 2021 with four wins on the bounce without conceding a goal. With this Saturday’s trip to Morecambe a huge opportunity for them to continue their upward trajectory.
The Trotters are a completely different side after their January business, Dion Charles has hit the ground running, Marlon Fossey provides immense width and a real danger from right wing back and crucially Gethin Jones has returned to solidify the backline, having a cliche new signing impact after recovering from a long term injury.
The Shrimps have won just three of 19 in League One and were swept aside by Sheffield Wednesday on Tuesday evening. Stephen Robinson’s men can be dangerous going forward but have the joint worst defensive record in League One, Bolton have the players to hurt them in transition and are playing with a lot of confidence.
Morecambe have enormously overperformed their expected goals (xG) this term and are naturally regressing to the mean in terms of their attacking numbers. Bolton are on the other side and are converting chances at a far more prolific rate having suffered from poor finishing previously this season.
The Trotters certainly look like value on the road.
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Prediction: Bolton to Win, 2.20 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐)
MK Dons v Lincoln City
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Saturday 5th February – 3:00PM KO
MK Dons made the leap into the top four in League One with a statement 1-0 victory over Wycombe Wanderers in their last match.
Just rewards for their consistently strong performances, that has them also firmly at the top end on expected points, as Liam Manning’s men look set to cement a position in the top six.
Lincoln too have picked up in recent weeks, with Michael Appleton identifying some intriguing targets in the transfer market, although they are certainly rightful outsiders heading into this matchup.
MK Dons have scored just six goals from 13.54 expected goals (xG), as per Wyscout, in their last eight games. For such a free-flowing attacking side that underperformance will not continue if they can sustain creating as many quality chances for their menacing forward line of Troy Parrott, Scott Twine and Theo Corbeanu.
The Imps have underperformed in the attacking third this season but the signing of John Marquis has given them a much needed focal point. With Anthony Scully, Morgan Whittaker and some attack-minded midfielders operating around him, Appleton will be confident that his men can breach the Dons’ rearguard action.
I also see value in getting MK Dons to score over 1.5 goals onside, however my best bet for this encounter is for both sides to find the net.
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Prediction: Both Teams to Score, 1.75 on Betfair (⭐⭐⭐⭐)
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