CF Montreal v Toronto

Rivalry Week concludes in the MLS this weekend and one of the matches which sees it towards its finish is the battle of the two Canadian sides in the Eastern Conference as CF Montreal take on Toronto FC.

Montreal have been the epitome of inconsistency this season with nine wins and eight losses on their record. When they are good they are very good but the opposite very much applies too.

Toronto on the other hand have been very consistent this term. Unfortunately for their supporters that consistency has been in losing matches and they suffered another tame loss in Chicago in midweek, their 11^th defeat on the season, which has left them languishing second from bottom in the table.

There is the old adage that form goes out of the window in a derby match, and while there might be an element of truth to that, the issue with Toronto FC is they are in a situation where Bob Bradley is clearly working on his squad and until he gets the tools he want in place you sense they are going to continue to go nowhere.

Pictures have been surfacing on social media that Djordje Mihailovic is back in training for CF Montreal which will give them a huge boost. Whether they need it here I’m not sure because they weren’t in action in midweek and in what has been a busy month of action that has to be significant.

I think when you put the two squads together at present, Montreal come out as clearly better than Toronto and the league table confirms that. I expect the scoreboard to do the same at the end of this one too.

---

Philadelphia Union v New England Revolution

Philadelphia’s high-press has resulted in only two games seeing three or more goals scored at Subaru Park.
But to be fair, those were the last two, in which manager Jim Curtin has finally had his top choice striking partnership of Julian Carranza and Mikael Uhre regularly available.

The Union and their opponents are actually combining for more than 3.0 expected goals per 90 minutes at Philadelphia’s home ground. The total hasn’t finished higher more often mostly because of Philadelphia’s wastefulness, which Carranza and Uhre may consign to the past.

New England are still playing the most wide open away matches in MLS, most recently losing 4-2 to NYCFC after conceding an MLS record three penalties in a contest and going down to 10 men.

The total has gone over 2.5 in all but one of the Revs’ nine away fixtures. Bruce Arena has been coping with a defense that hasn’t been quite as good as last years with the loss of goalkeeper Matt Turner to Arsenal and an extended injury for center back Henry Kessler. Both teams have also scored in eight of those nine games.

So the metrics lean toward more goals. However, the history between these teams gives reason to pause, with the total going under on six of nine occasions since Curtin and Arena were both in charge of these clubs.

At the same time, both teams have also scored in six of those games. Given that, and the numbers that tell us this might be a more open affair than previous editions, the strongest play is on both teams scoring again at odds that suggest a three-out-of-five chance, allowing for the relatively likely scenario of a 1-1 draw. Philly have played four home games finishing by that score this year.

---

---

Inter Miami v Charlotte FC

There have been few betting trends more reliable in MLS since the start of 2021 than playing the total over 2.5 goals in Inter Miami home fixtures and under it away from home.

Since Phil Neville took the helm of the club at the start of the 2021 campaign, there have been three or more goals scored in 20 of 27 home matches. And yet oddsmakers continue to give Miami relatively even lines on the overall totals. Because the trends skew in the opposite direction when they’re traveling, as Neville often opts for a David Moyes-like low block.

And in this weekend’s clash against Charlotte FC, they face an opponent that has also demonstrated reverse trends in its first MLS campaign. The expansion club has seen three or more goals scored in seven of their 10 away matches and only three of 10 home fixtures. And although expected goals trends suggest that trend should not be so pronounced, it’s also understandable given that first-year teams are perhaps more prone to mistakes, communication issues and other factors that are more often punished in opposition venues.
Additionally, Charlotte have more to offer going of late since parting with manager Miguel Angel Ramirez because of apparent friction in the dressing room.

Their three away matches since the switch have been their best away stretch to date, taking four points overall, out creating opponents on balance and finally earning a first away win 2-1 in Houston two weekends ago. Andre Shinyashiki has been one of the most subtly excellent acquisitions in MLS, scoring five times since Charlotte pried him from Colorado at the end of April.

It all amounts to likely goals in South Florida. Again.

---

Minnesota United vs DC United

Two United’s meet in the early hours of Sunday morning when Minnesota United look to continue their fine recent form when they host a DC United side who might be ones to watch over the coming months once Wayne Rooney has begun to work his magic on his new team.

There was an immediate reaction to the Rooney appointment in midweek when DC United rebounded from a horrible 7-0 loss in Philadelphia to pick up a point against the former champions Columbus Crew, but they have an awkward looking road trip here.

Minnesota’s home form is quite mixed this season but they have taken 10 points from their last four matches and are clearly in a nice groove at present and will be expecting three points from this contest.

The first thing Wayne Rooney needs to do with this DC squad is find a way to stop them conceding goals. They don’t just concede too many goals but they are soft ones that kill the morale of a team. I would imagine while he addresses the defensive issue their attacking play might suffer a little and that is to the advantage of Minnesota.

Minnesota have plenty of goals in them and while they too haven’t been as good at the back as Adrian Heath would want, it might be that they face a gun shy DC here.

In a tough stretch of games I’m a big believer that form counts for a lot and Minnesota have that and I think they’ll pick up three more points here.

---

FC Dallas v Austin FC

Austin FC enter the weekend as the new Supporters’ Shield leaders and are the best away side in MLS. So why are oddsmakers rating them so lowly against an FC Dallas side that has been sputtering?

It’s most likely down to expected goals modeling, which suggests Austin has outperformed its performances away from home by a difference of about nine.

But we’ve seen this before in MLS, at times this year with the Philadelphia Union and often last campaign with the 2021 Portland Timbers.

That Timbers side had some of the worst away metrics in MLS, yet they earned a respectable 20 points from their travels in part because of the quality of their chances than quantity.

This year’s Austin side is following that mold. Some rankings have them as high as second in MLS in big chances created behind only New York City FC. (Dallas is right around the middle.)

Add an extra day of recovery time and a Dallas side that has emptied the tank twice in a row in an away draw at Houston and a home loss to New York City, and Los Verdes would appear to be good value to pick up a point here.

You can also throw in the philosophy that local rivalry games actually create a lower home-field advantage than average in MLS since it’s the arduous travel of the average MLS fixture that may account for home teams winning nearly 50% of matches.

Dallas aren’t as bad as their recent slide of six without a victory and will get well eventually. But don’t back them to do so here, not at less than even money.. Take the visitors on a handicap.

---

---

Atlanta United v Orlando City

Although the rivalry between Atlanta United and Orlando City is born out of them joining MLS at the same time rather than locality, it is a real rivalry and the latest leg of it takes place at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.

Atlanta will head into this match buoyed by just their second win in nine in midweek when they got the better of Real Salt Lake and they’ll be looking for another victory here to move them back towards the play-off places.

We know all about the issues that Atlanta have had this term with injuries really hampering them but they have never affected either their attacking play on the pitch, or the number of options they have in this busy period.

Even in midweek, they were able to start with Josef Martinez on the bench so he should be fresh to feature in this match which will be a boost to the home side.

Orlando came away from Colorado with a draw in midweek. That is a good result at any time but especially when you consider they left a number of starters on the bench from the beginning, presumably with this match in mind.

Atlanta matches continue to be high scoring and while Orlando games don’t always follow the same pattern, they lost 5-3 to DC United recently which shows they can be got at.

This is a game where the attacking units of both teams can shine, particularly with the amount of talent that was saved for this game. I expect another high-scoring Atlanta match here.

---

18+ please gamble responsibly.

---

Back the Four and Five Star Selections as an Accumulator on Betfair ⬇️

*Bet link only appears when accessing from mobile.

---

Haven’t got a Betfair account? You’re in luck…

Sign up to Betfair and get a full refund if your first bet loses. Grab an account through the offer below and place £20 on the 24/1 MLS Best Bets Accumulator. Here are the two possible outcomes: