This pick is driven by Wales’ expected dominance and Kazakhstan’s defensive weaknesses. Wales averaged 4.33 shots on target per game in the Nations League, reaching at least five in half of their matches.

However, Kazakhstan allowed an average of 6.67 shots on target per game, with four of their six opponents managing a huge eight or more efforts on goal.

The Kazakh winger is a key figure for his national team, and his ability to win fouls is evident in both international and club football. During the Nations League group stage, he averaged 2.46 fouls won per 90, drawing at least two in three of his four starts.

In European competition with Tobol Kostanay, he won two fouls in each of his two starts. With Wales’ right side committing 22 fouls across their six group-stage matches, he is well positioned to attract at least two on Saturday night.

Just as he wins fouls, Chesnokov’s aggressive playing style sees him commit his fair share as well. He averaged an astonishing 4.38 fouls per 90 in the Nations League group stage, committing at least one in all five of his appearances, two or more in four and a massive five or more on two occasions.

While club statistics are limited, his European performances for Tobol Kostanay show a similar trend, with three fouls committed in each of his last two matches. He is likely to come up against Brennan Johnson and Connor Roberts, who drew 1.74 and 1.8 fouls per 90 in the Nations League group stage.

The Leeds winger remains a consistent attacking threat at both club and international level. He averages 3.49 shots per 90 minutes in domestic football and has recorded at least two shots in 18 of his last 19 starts.

His influence extends to the national team, where he has taken three shots in each of his last two starts for Wales. The hosts should dominate here, giving James plenty of opportunity to fire a few efforts at goal.

Despite limited game time at Spurs this season, where he averages 0.9 fouls won per 90 minutes, his more prominent role in the Welsh squad has allowed his attacking impact to shine. Operating from the right-hand side, he averaged 1.74 fouls drawn per 90 in the Nations League group stage, winning at least one in three of his four starts and three in two of them.

Kazakhstan’s left side has struggled with discipline, committing a combined 30 fouls across their six group-stage matches, further reinforcing this selection.

With his attacking threat well established, Johnson has also proven capable of contributing to the scoresheet while displaying a combative edge. He has scored twice in his last three Nations League starts, aligning with his domestic form, where he finds the net every two games for Spurs.

While he has picked up just four yellow cards in club football, his international record is telling – where he was booked in each group game he started.