I feel like Hull are a bit too short in the match market here, and the easiest way to counter that is to back Wrexham in the double chance market.

I watched Hull at home to Middlesbrough last week, and they were ridiculously open from a defensive perspective. Middlesbrough played well, and tactically, Jakirovic had no answer to what Kim Hellberg provided for Boro. Time and again, Boro were able to get through the centre of the Hull team, and that must have been not very reassuring for all those of a Hull persuasion.

Hull, off the back of that match, continue to have the worst expected goals against record in the league, and, in that match, there was no sign of the other side, i.e., the team that is able to create chances in every match they play.

I am not basing this bet on potentially one bad performance, but Wrexham’s staff will have seen those deficiencies as much as I have and should surely be able to come up with a plan to take advantage of some of those issues, especially defensively.

Wrexham are moving into contention and look like a very competent Championship outfit now, having found their next system and starting XI. Gone are the team who were bottom of the league for expected goals against in the early weeks, their xG against over the last 10 matches is down to 1.25 per match, which is much more manageable.

They could stand to score a few more goals, especially away from home, but Phil Parkinson’s away strategy of containment and shape seems to be paying dividends. Wrexham have lost only twice in nine Championship away matches, drawing their last four in a row. Taking the draw as part of the double chance here means that a stalemate would pay us out.

I said ahead of the Middlesbrough game that Hull City Championship matches are almost a must bet in the both teams to score market, and we were proven correct on that occasion. It took a questionable penalty for Hull in the second half to get back into the match after being thoroughly outplayed by their visitors in the first half.

If there is one thing that we have learned about Hull this season, though, it is that they are capable of the sublime and the ridiculous, so it stands to reason that they are a reliable BTTS team to follow.

Wrexham aren’t generally prone to the same wild swings in performance within a single game. Indeed, they have become a fairly solid Championship team, but their recent 10 matches have shown a defensive overperformance. Half of their matches have been BTTS, including their last two, but they have conceded only 0.7 goals a game in that period despite averaging 1.3 xG against per match. This is unsustainable.

Ben Sheaf has been underrated in the fouls drawn market.

He averages 1.27 fouls per 90 this season; this number rises to 1.37 per 90 when Wrexham play away from home. Indeed, his last four away matches have seen Sheaf fouled twice at Preston, and twice at Ipswich, and once each at Portsmouth and Stoke.

Sheaf is the controller of Wrexham’s play, so opposition players love to target him to disrupt the flow of the Dragons’ play. With his position in the centre of midfield, that’s where a lot of the battles take place, of course, and with Amir Hadziahmetovic and Regan Slater in there disrupting, both of them committing over one foul per 90, there is plenty of scope for fouls committed against Sheaf.

The key driver behind this bet is not just from looking at Egan’s fouls drawn record, but also Egan’s likely opponent.

Kieffer Moore is obviously a very physical striker, and his record demonstrates that he is a regular fouler as well. In the majority of cases, these fouls come up against the opposition's central defenders, as the physical duels, primarily aerial ones, can end in a foul one way or another.

Moore averages 1.41 fouls per 90 this season, but just as importantly, his last three matches have seen him commit seven fouls, three against Bristol City, and two each against Blackburn and Preston.

This contributes to Egan’s propensity for getting fouled, and the experienced Hull centre back will be keen to take responsibility for Moore, especially given that they were teammates at Sheffield United last season.

Egan has been fouled 0.83 times per 90 this season, but that rises to 1.12 over Hull’s last 10 matches, and it is a regular occurrence. He has been fouled in six of his last seven matches, and three of those matches have seen him fouled twice.