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Andy's Sunday Accumulator @ 4.60

Telstar are a very confusing side, they sit in the relegation zone in the Eredivisie and have the worst home record of any side in the division - but still find a way to consistently score goals. Telstar have won just one of their 10 home matches in the Eredivisie this season, but have scored 17 goals across those matches.

The issue for Telstar has been keeping sides out, with Anthony Correira’s side conceding 22 goals across those games, only Heracles (23) have conceded more goals at home than Telstar in the Dutch top-flight this term. 

Telstar have seen BTTS in four of their last five matches across all competitions, including a five-goal thriller against Ajax, which highlights their ability to be involved in high-scoring matches despite being one of the weaker sides in the division. The most recent head-to-head meeting between these sides saw BTTS as Alkmaar ran out 2-1 winners over Telstar, in a game that saw a combined xG of 4.96.

Brentford and manager Keith Andrews have been a genuine surprise this campaign. Many, myself included, expected them to struggle after losing their club captain, manager, and two biggest attacking threats in the same window. However, the club has adapted brilliantly - a testament to the effective and resilient structure in place.

The Bees’ formidable home form is central to their success, remaining unbeaten in 10 of their 11 matches at the Gtech Community Stadium this season. Their only defeat came against Manchester City, a victory Pep Guardiola’s side did not earn easily. This underscores just how difficult a trip to West London is for any Premier League side at the moment. Brentford have won seven of these games with only Villa, City and Arsenal winning more games at home this term in the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest, in contrast, appear nervy and uncertain. There seems to be a disconnect between the players and what manager Sean Dyche is asking of them. Their latest frustration was a 1-0 Europa League defeat away to Braga in midweek. Forest have managed just one win in their last five matches - against a West Ham side who have been equally poor.

With only three away wins in eleven Premier League attempts this season, it is difficult to see Forest becoming just the second side to triumph at Brentford’s fortress. Factor in their fatigue from the trip to Portugal, while Brentford have enjoyed a full week to prepare, and all signs point toward a home victory.

Atletico Madrid have been near faultless at home in LaLiga this season with nine wins from their 10 games at the Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s side have picked up more points than any other side at home in the Spanish top flight this term (28) and have only conceded seven goals across these games.

That defensive record is particularly notable as they take on a Mallorca side that have only won one of their 10 away matches in LaLiga this term, only scoring 10 goals across these games. Only three sides in the division have picked up fewer points on the road than Mallorca this term, which is pretty reflective of how their campaign has unfolded.

Mallorca sit 15th in LaLiga and are only two points above the drop zone. They’ve only managed to win one of their last five matches, with this victory coming at home against Athletic club last time out  - a win that was aided by their opponents being reduced to 10 men in the second half.

I can’t see Mallorca finding a way to breakdown this stubborn Atletico Madrid defence which has kept eight clean sheets this season. It’s also worth noting that Mallorca are overachieving their xG by a few goals, so their already weak record in front of goal is actually even worse than it appears on paper.

I really like Danny Rohl and thought he would end up in a big job after the job he did at Sheffield Wednesday with all the background noise at his former club.

He’s made Rangers an organised and effective side, particularly when they are without the ball which has resulted in Rohl avoiding defeat in 16 of his 21 matches in charge so far - maintaining a solid win percentage of 62%.

Rangers come into this clash with real momentum having won each of their last seven matches across all competitions, including a victory over Celtic in the Old Firm Derby. This recent run has moved Rangers to within six points of the league leaders, Hearts, and Rohl will feel as though that gap isn’t insurmountable.

Rangers have lost just one of their 11 home games in the Scottish Premiership this season, though Rohl will want to turn a few of those draws (4) into victories to ensure that Rangers keep the pressure on Hearts and Celtic in the race for the title.

Dundee have managed to put together a decent run of form themselves over the last five matches, but it’s impossible to ignore their dire away record in the Scottish top flight this term. Only Livingston (4) have picked up fewer points on the road than Dundee (6) in the Scottish Premiership this term - with Dundee losing seven of their 11 away games.

Rangers ran out 3-0 winners in the most recent head to head meeting between the sides, and should be able to deal with the current iteration of Dundee who are poor travellers as further shown by the fact that they’re the lowest scorers away from home in the Scottish Premiership this season (5).

Football

Portsmouth v Southampton Bet Builder @ 4.28

It is interesting to me that Portsmouth are priced as an outsider in the overs markets for corners.

I think that there is every chance that Portsmouth win the corner battle, and even if they don't, I expect them to win over 3.5 corners.

They have been able to beat this line in their last five home matches in all competitions, which includes six against Arsenal in the FA Cup. Overall, they have beaten this line in 13 of 16 home matches in all competitions. They are averaging 6.13 corners at home, so to be able to get this line beaten with only four seems like a good deal.

Saints haven’t been incredible for corner prevention either, especially away from home. In the league overall this season they have conceded over five corners per match, and, last time out, they conceded 11 to Middlesbrough at the Riverside Stadium.

It is a derby game, and there is no love lost between the two port cities on the South Coast. So, although foul prices are often enhanced for these types of occasions, I am surprised to find a price I like in this market.

Starting with Southampton, it is going to be important for this bet that Leo Scienza starts and plays the majority of the match for Southampton. He is quite simply a foul magnet, Scienza carries the ball forward and uses trickery and technique to make defenders have to stop him by fouling. Southampton are fouled, on average, 12 times per away match in the Championship this season, and Scienza is averaging 4.49 fouls drawn, so you can see how important one player can be to this bet.

Pompey are just about on the 10 foul mark each match on average when looking across the season as a whole. They have committed 12 (most recent), 10, 16, 14, and 11 in their last five matches, and none of those were against bitter local rivals either.

Scienza scored the opening and, as it turned out, only goal of the game in midweek, which can slow a player down from shooting a lot in the same game once they have their goal, but in this case, Scienza went on to shoot another four times in the match.

He has hit this line of three or more in 12 starts in the Championship so far this season, so although it is a higher line than I would usually go for, there is form to add up and make it seem reasonable. He does seem to be on a roll currently as well; he has beaten this line on four of his last five starts.

Scienza’s season average for shots taken is 3.6, but he is a player who will always be involved in the attack with his line-breaking capability with the ball at his feet. There is also the possibility he will be a late substitute, but we are likely to get an attacking substitute coming on for him, keeping the bet alive if it does turn out that way.

The Southampton midfielder is on a long streak of fouls in away games, and recently there have been a number of occasions where he has committed multiple fouls in the same game as well. That's what we are counting on again here.

It does help that Downes is heading into the heat of the midfield battle in a rough and tumble derby. 

Downes has averaged 1.74 fouls per 90 in all competitions so far, but it is the difference between his ratio at home and away that carries greater interest to me. In away games, his average number of fouls per 90 jumps up to 2.35, and the run of fouls in recent matches away, in which Downes starts, reads: 4 (v Doncaster), 2, 2, 1, 2, 2, 3. This is the primary reason for picking out this bet, whilst the volume of fouls is likely to go down over time, at the moment it is well worth backing at the prices.

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