Monaco is our next stop on the train journey, we’re looking for the home side to score two goals against an Auxerre side that have only won one game away from home all season in Ligue 1, conceding 22 goals across these 14 games. 

Monaco have faced off against Auxerre twice already this season, winning both games 2-1 and producing an xG of 5.13 from 30 shots across these games. In other words, they have dominated Auxerre in both head to head clashes - and scored at least two goals in each of the last eight head to head meetings between the sides. 

Monaco were on an unreal run of form before their 4-1 defeat to Paris FC on the road last time out, but the underlying numbers don’t reflect the extremity of that result on paper - with Monaco having 19 shots and generating an xG of 2.31, to Paris FC’s 12 shots and 2.61 xG. Monaco had scored 2+ goals in each of their last 9 matches prior to that defeat, a run that includes three games against PSG.

Monaco have scored 31 goals across their 15 home matches this season (2.06 per game), only Marseille, PSG and Lens have scored more goals at home in Ligue 1 this season than Monaco. This sets up the home side well to score at least twice here. 

It also helps that they have the most in-form player in Ligue 1 at the moment with Florian Balogun scoring in each of his last six appearances in the French top flight. 

Mac Allister has had an underwhelming season so far, which is a criticism that can be extended to most of the Liverpool squad, and his frustration was particularly evident in both legs of Liverpool’s Champions League quarter final tie against PSG - he has booked in both legs and committed four fouls across the two matches.

Mac Allister’s foul average has been pretty modest this term (0.94 per 90), but this environment can force a rise in those numbers. Mac Allister committed 62 fouls across his 30 starts in the Premier League last season (2.14 per 90), and I think he can match the tenacity he set for most of last campaign here.

Mac Allister committed three fouls in Liverpool’s most recent trip to face their Merseyside rivals, showing how the intensity of this derby fixture can lead to an increase in his foul numbers across the season as a whole.

Idrissa Gueye committed two fouls when Everton last welcomed Liverpool, in what was the final game between the rivals at Goodison Park. He’s been performing really well alongside Garner, it’s easy to forget that he’s 36 - he plays with plenty of energy and tenacity, which should give him a good chance of committing a few fouls.

Gueye has committed 19 fouls across his 23 starts in the Premier League this season (0.89 per 90). A bit like Mac Allister, this is quite a modest foul count but Gueye gets through far more work in the middle of the park than this foul average suggests, he’s averaging 9.63 defensive contributions per 90 and 2.01 tackles per 90 in the Premier League this season, showing his true tenacity.

Gravenberch is very good in tight spaces, he was operating at a slighter higher level last season but his level hasn’t dropped as much as some of the other players in the Liverpool squad. Everton will be sitting in a compact 4-4-2 shape, so it’s important that Liverpool get players like Gravenberch on the ball as often as possible so he can break those narrow lines.

Gravenberch has drawn 36 fouls across his 29 Premier League starts this season (1.26 per 90), so we’re looking for a slight rise in his seasonal average - though he has won 2+ fouls in three of his last five Premier League matches. He’ll be up against a combative trio of Garner, Gueye and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall:

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall - 1.11 fouls committed p/90
Garner - 0.91 fouls committed p/90
Gueye - 0.89 fouls committed p/90

Ndiaye was hauled down three times when these sides met earlier in the season, and two times in just 25 minutes when Liverpool last travelled to take on Everton. He’s Everton’s best outlet at the moment with Jack Grealish out injured, and his ability to carry the ball past players should be useful for Everton here.

Ndiaye tortured Kerkez at Anfield earlier in the season, drawing three fouls from the Hungarian which is a significant increase on the 0.84 fouls per 90 that Kerkez is averaging in the Premier League. In fairness to Kerkez he has improved quite considerably since then, but his insistence to push high up the pitch will cause him problems with Ndiaye ready to exploit that space he often leaves. 

Ndiaye is averaging 1.28 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League this season, and has also completed 55 dribbles (2.20 per 90). Ndiaye was fouled twice in Everton’s last home game as they beat Chelsea 3-0, operating in a similar role as an outlet for Everton with David Moyes’ side winning that game with only 36% of the ball.