Saudi Arabia showed plenty of aggression during qualifying, collecting 28 cautions across their 12 matches (2.33 per game).

They averaged 9.20 fouls committed per game, which is a rate that is bound to rise at the World Cup given that they are now lining up against vastly superior sides to those they faced during qualifying.

Saudi Arabia’s best chance here is to slow the game down as much as possible. I see them engaging with Uruguay in central areas frequently in an attempt to stifle their rhythm - which should lead to at least two cards for the underdogs.

Uruguay averaged 4.39 corners per game during qualifying, winning 4+ corners in 50% of their matches.

Saudi Arabia only conceded 3.67 corners per game, but this is another metric that will definitely increase during the World Cup, with Saudi Arabia taking on a higher level of opponent.

Uruguay racked up six corners in their final warm-up game for the tournament against Algeria and should be able to cover this corner line as the dominant side.

Sergio Rochet lined up in goal for Uruguay during qualifying and was called into action 37 times across his 14 appearances (2.64 per 90), maintaining a save percentage of 82.2%.

Fernando Muslera is expected to replace him in the starting lineup for this opening game. He’s got a lot of experience at this level and is still a decent shot stopper, having kept six clean sheets across 12 starts during the 25/26 season with a save average of 1.91 stops per 90.

I think Saudi Arabia can cause a few issues for the South American side in transition. The line for Uruguay to make a single save here is as short as 1.17; I don’t think the gap between that and the second save is as big as the odds are suggesting.

I still really like Darwin Nunez. He falls into that bracket of player for me where he probably won’t ever truly be elite, but his presence and shot volume make him such a handful for defenders that I think he’s worth having in a side with more efficient attacking talent around him.

He’s Uruguay’s best forward option at the moment and enjoyed a pretty decent season in Saudi Arabia, registering 10 goal contributions across just 14 starts. He's still very willing to take on shots, averaging 3.09 per 90 across the season as a whole, with 23 of these efforts finding the target (1.65 per 90).

He’s scored 13 goals across 38 caps for Uruguay, and I think he’ll be a real threat here to a pretty vulnerable Saudi Arabia backline. He scored five goals for Uruguay during qualifying, maintaining an average of 1.20 shots on target per 90.

Uruguay’s shot line is set around 14/15 shots here depending on where you look, and I think Valverde can contribute to that tally with a few attempts.

He’s easily the best player in this Uruguay side and is usually given quite a bit of freedom by Marcelo Bielsa to get forward. Valverde scored two goals for Uruguay during qualifying, averaging 1.89 shots per 90 across his 14 starts.

He enjoyed his second-ever best scoring season for Madrid during the 25/26 campaign (11), and I think he will continue to build on that confidence in front of goal with a few efforts here.

There’s an argument to suggest that Olise is France’s main man ahead of this World Cup with the form he showed during the 25/26 season for Bayern Munich.

Olise registered an incredible 53 goal contributions across 57 appearances for Bayern Munich and comes into this World Cup priced as the favourite by many bookmakers to win the Golden Ball, with France also backed to go all the way. 

Olise averaged just shy of 2.0 shots on target per 90 for Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga last season, and found the target five times for France during qualifying across five starts (1.05 per 90). He also scored a hat-trick in his final warm-up game for France against Northern Ireland from four shots on target.

I expect Ndiaye to be a real outlet for Senegal here, which should put him in some promising situations to win fouls.

He’s enjoyed a strong season for Everton, winning 37 fouls across his 32 starts (1.20 per 90), which is a rate that I think will increase given how this game should pan out with France dominating and Senegal looking to take their chances in transition.

Ndiaye will be up against Lucas Hernandez (0.89 fouls per 90) and Desire Doue (1.59 fouls per 90) down his side of the pitch. He should be able to give Senegal some relief at times from what is expected to be consistent France pressure - he’s an excellent ball carrier, averaging 2.05 successful dribbles per 90 during qualifying for the African nation.

France could cover this line on their own, which is something they have done in 12 of their last 13 matches across all competitions - only failing to score twice in a surprise defeat to Ivory Coast in which they had 15 attempts with six finding the target.

France have also notably failed to keep any clean sheets across their last five matches, including clashes against Azerbaijan and Northern Ireland. There’s definitely an argument to suggest that France’s squad is a bit top-heavy and they will give away chances from the holes that are in the midfield and backline.

Senegal are quite an organised side, but can’t rely on keeping things low scoring here. They will have to be brave enough to take some risks in the final third themselves, as keeping a front four of Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Desire Doue and Ousmane Dembele quiet for 90 minutes is a tough assignment.

I touched on the fact that France’s squad is a bit top-heavy, and I think that will lead to an important role for Mike Maignan in goal. He enjoyed another strong season for Milan, making 2.95 saves per 90 with a save percentage of 75.5%, and kept three clean sheets across five matches during qualifying.

Maignan wasn’t really tested in that qualifying run with France taking on the likes of Iceland, Ukraine and Azerbaijan, but Senegal certainly have options who can cause problems - particularly in moments where France have settled possession and move up the pitch, exposing them to runners in behind.

Senegal’s front three is expected to be:

Nicolas Jackson - 1.88 shots on target per 90

Sadio Mane - 1.27 shots on target per 90

Iliman Ndiaye - 0.71 shots on target per 90

You also have players like Ismaila Sarr, who can come on when the game is stretched, with the latter stages of games being ideal for his style of play and tendency to strike against better sides for the underdog.

I do think Senegal can cause France the odd issue, maybe even get on the scoresheet, but I expect the European side to come away with all three points and a few goals.

There aren’t many sides in international football blessed with the quality that France have in the final third. Deschamps has got much better at getting these players in a coherent system over the last few years, and you can’t ignore their runs to back-to-back finals, which shows that they don’t mind the pressure of this stage.

Senegal haven’t had the most ideal pre-tournament preparation either, failing to beat either the USA or Saudi Arabia in their warm-up games. France’s quality should shine through.