Union Berlin v Wolfsburg 

We’re heading over to the Bundesliga for the first stop of our train, with the focus firmly on the relegation battle. Wolfsburg are in big trouble, they enter this weekend seven points from safety with only five games of the season remaining - and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 22 matches across all competitions.

The initial league meeting between these sides produced four goals as Wolfsburg ran out 3-1 winners over Union Berlin. That win is one of only three victories that Wolfsburg have managed since early December in the Bundesliga, and they were pretty fortunate to collect all three points on that occasion with Union Berlin posting an xG of 1.92 from 21 shots.

No side has conceded more goals on the road in the Bundesliga this season than Wolfsburg (34 - 2.42 per game), so there is a chance that Union Berlin can deepen the misery of the away side and cover this line on their own. Wolfsburg have still carried a decent scoring power themselves across these matches, netting 18 goals.

Union Berlin’s 14 home games in the Bundesliga have produced 41 goals (2.92 per game), they’ve only won four of these matches - so Wolfsburg have to see this as a must win game for the situation they find themselves in.

Werder Bremen v Hamburg 

The other notable battle at the bottom of the Bundesliga this week is between Werder Bremen and Hamburg. The home side sit just three points above the drop zone, and have seen 40 goals across their 14 home games in the Bundesliga this term (2.85 per game). 

The initial league meeting between these sides produced five goals as Hamburg came away 3-2 winners over Werder Bremen at home. That clash produced a combined xG of 2.06 from 22 match shots in total - and I can see both sides contributing to the goal count again here. 

Hamburg aren’t in as much trouble as Werder Bremen, but still are in a precarious position with only six points keeping them from the drop zone. A victory for the home side here would drag Hamburg right back into the heart of the relegation battle, offering both sides plenty of motivation to push on for goals and produce a high scoring game.

Furthermore, Hamburg have conceded 27 goals across their 14 away games in the Bundesliga this season (1.92 per game), winning just two of these games - so Werder Bremen should be encouraged to push on and collect all three points in this relegation six pointer which should produce at least two match goals.

Last week's BTTS & No Draw Boosted Double won @ 6.5 ✅

Southampton's BTTS record this season is really strong, they've seen both teams score in 29 of their 42 league matches. They now travel to Swansea to play a side that are much stronger at home - they sit 7th in the home Championship table, but 19th in the away. That aspect makes me think this could be a perfect pick for this bet.

Southampton are on an insane run going 18 games unbeaten in all competitions, they've also scored in all of those games so I'm expecting them to net at least a couple against a Swansea team that have conceded 10 across their last five.

Swansea should be able to cause Southampton issues too though, despite their amazing run they have only managed to keep 11 clean sheets out of 42 games this season. Swansea (and Vipotnik) are also going through a decent patch of scoring, they put three past Sheffield Utd, two past Middlesbrough and one past Leicester recently, with the striker netting four of those goals.

Last week's BTTS & No Draw Boosted Double won @ 6.5 ✅

Notts County v Barnet should be a bit of a shootout with where both teams sit in the table - a draw does none of them any good. Notts County are still in with a great chance of landing an automatic promotion spot, whilst Barnet are still hoping to make the play-offs.

Notts County are in a patch of shaky form, they've only taken 6 points from a possible 15 after being battered by promotion rivals Cambridge, and now need a win to get back into the automatic promotion positions. Across their last five games there's been 16 goals (3.20 per match), and they've been coming at both ends - 6 scored and 10 conceded. Although they failed to score against Cambridge, I can't see them blanking again here, they've scored the second-most goals in the division (1.65 goals per game) and face a Barnet side that have only kept one clean sheet in their last eight.

Barnet's games recently have been goal-fests - 21 goals across the last five matches (4.20 goals per game). They've also won four of those five games too.