Turkiye are such an exciting team to watch, but they are far from solid and will give up chances against this young Belgium side who have a lot of talented forwards worth keeping an eye on.

Turkiye conceded four goals against Italy last time out, a poor Italy side it must be said, also managing to get on the scoresheet themselves in a clash that saw a combined xG of 5.17 (2.89-2.28).

Belgium impressed me against Italy in their opening game, coming away 2-0 winners on the road thanks to goals from Godts and Lukebakio. They generated an xG of 2.76 in that clash, but notably allowed Italy to generate an xG of 1.70 themselves, also notably having 36 touches in Belgium’s box.

These underlying numbers would suggest that Belgium have been a bit fortunate to concede just one goal across their games against France and Italy. I think both sides will see this as the easiest game in the group, and we should see that reflected in the attitude of both nations.

France have won both of their games to nil in the Nations League so far, winning 1-0 against both Italy and Türkiye on the road. This is Zinedine Zidane’s first home game as the manager of the national team, and I think France gets all three points against an Italy side that are in transition.

Italy’s 4-1 win over Turkiye last time out flattered them quite a lot, it was more that Turkiye allowed Italy to dominate the game rather than Italy being impressive. They won’t get that space against a France side who limited Belgium to an xG of 0.69 last time out.

France beat Italy 3-1 when the nations last faced off in the Nations League back in 2024. I can see a similar outcome here with Italy travelling to the second strongest side in Europe with a young squad that has a long way to go if Italy want to get to the level of France, or even qualify for an international tournament.

This Belgium defence is nowhere near what it was in their golden generation.

While Thibaut Courtois isn’t in the squad either, and though they’ve only conceded one goal from two games this international break, their performances have been far less convincing than that would suggest.

They’ve let in only one goal from 2.92 xG, conceding 21 shots in a 2-0 win in Italy and 18 in their 1-0 home defeat to France.

Turkey generated 1.21 xG in a 1-0 loss at home to France, before producing 2.89 in their 4-1 defeat at home to Italy.

Getting on their travels could do them some good after a disappointing few months.

Turkey scored 17 goals in six World Cup qualifying group games (2.83 per game), mightily impressive considering they played Spain twice in that sample.

Sweden have seen BTTS in 11/12 games since appointing Graham Potter as manager.

The bet came in after 43 minutes in their 3-1 win over Poland on Monday, and their top of League B Group 4 with six points out of six.

Bosnia have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 3/3 group stage games at the World Cup and they scored three in the first half in a 4-2 win in Romania last time out.

Bosnia have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 12 competitive games as well, so it’s not just the Swedes with the tendency for goals at both ends.

The bet was in after 28 minutes in their last match, and a win for either side would put them in a commanding position to progress to League A.

Sweden have seen BTTS in 11/12 games since appointing Graham Potter as manager.

The bet came in after 43 minutes in their 3-1 win over Poland on Monday, and their top of League B Group 4 with six points out of six.

Bosnia have been reliable in front of goal of late, scoring in 3/3 group stage games at the World Cup and they scored three in the first half in a 4-2 win in Romania last time out.

Bosnia have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 12 competitive games as well, so it’s not just the Swedes with the tendency for goals at both ends.

The bet was in after 28 minutes in their last match, and a win for either side would put them in a commanding position to progress to League A.