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AC Milan v Roma
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Kick Off: Wednesday 5th February at 20:00
🏆
Competition: Coppa Italia
Following an enthralling Milan Derby last Sunday, The San Siro hosts another enticing affair as AC Milan take on Roma in the Copa Italia quarter-finals.
Both sides come into this clash in good form and under relatively new management, which should lead to a more exciting game than the 1-1 stalemate they played out last time.
Milan are the bookmaker’s marginal favourites and that’s probably merited given the performances they’ve put out in recent games, although it’s expected that this will be a closely-fought affair and The Rossonerri should take nothing for granted.
⭐ AC Milan v Roma Best Bet
Roma have shown impressive discipline when it comes to bookings, averaging just 2.00 cards per game in the league. Recently, this number has dropped even further, making it increasingly rare to see three or more Roma players booked in a single match.
This trend has held strong, with this selection hitting in 12 of Roma’s last 15 games. Since Ranieri took charge, Roma’s card average has dipped to just 1.88 per game—unsurprising, given his preference for a more measured, controlled style compared to some of his predecessors.
Meanwhile, Milan have thus far failed to prompt their opponents into racking up bookings. Only twice in their last 10 league matches have their opposition exceeded two cards, and across the entire season, just 5 of 23 teams have done so. On average, Milan’s opponents receive only 1.7 yellow cards per game.
🟢 Ac Milan v Roma #WhatOddsPaddy Tip
Milan come into this clash in good form, having recorded no more than 2 defeats across their last 16.
The Rossonerri have been particularly strong at home, where they’re now unbeaten in their last 10 clashes. They’ve picked up 60% of their league points at home.
Wednesday’s hosts have won by a margin of 2 or more goals in 3 of their last 6 home league matches against The Giallorossi and are now unbeaten in 10 league games against Ranieri’s men.
A 1-1 draw resulted from this fixture earlier in this season although Milan were by far the better team, firing off a total of 21 shots, 7 of which found the target.
Additionally, Milan boast a far better corner-winning rate, averaging 5.65 per game, although this figure rises to 7 when considering their most recent 8.
This is in stark comparison to Roma who’ve averaged no more than 3.87 per game to date.
👕 AC Milan v Roma Predicted XI

🔍 AC Milan v Roma Players to Watch
🟠 Angelino
Angelino’s well-timed forward runs have made him a standout in the fouls-drawn market. The Spanish wingback has been fouled at least once in each of his last seven appearances as part of a back-five—the same system Roma are expected to deploy on Wednesday.
He’s been fouled twice or more in four of those games and has won at least one foul in 10 of his last 12 matches across all competitions.
Against Milan last time out, Angelino was heavily involved, both committing and drawing fouls over the 90 minutes. Given his current streak, these odds seem surprisingly generous.
🔴 Rafael Leao
Leão leads all expected starters on Wednesday in shots on target, averaging 1.26 per 90 minutes—more than any player from either Milan or Roma. Conceição’s system has played to his strengths, giving him the freedom to take on defenders and create his own shooting opportunities with his quick footwork and direct style.
He has registered at least one shot on target in 12 of his 16 league appearances when playing 60+ minutes, including each of his last six matches.
Roma’s defensive struggles only add to his chances. They’ve been far from solid this season, conceding an average of 4.3 shots on target per game—leaving plenty of opportunities for Leão to test the keeper.
🟠 Lorenzo Pelligrini
Pellegrini has been Roma’s most fouled player this season, drawing an average of 1.34 fouls per 90 minutes across all competitions. Yet, despite leading the team in this stat, he’s been priced more generously than several teammates who don’t come close to his rate.
The Italian midfielder has won at least one foul in 13 of his 15 appearances when playing 60+ minutes, maintaining that streak in each of his last seven outings. In his most recent league match, he was fouled three times.
His matchup on Wednesday makes this even more appealing. He’ll be up against Fofana, who has committed at least two fouls in four of his last eight matches—including three against Roma last time out.
📂 AC Milan v Roma Cheat Sheet
Cheat Sheet pending…
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💻 AC Milan v Roma Form and Tactics
Under Conceicao, we’ve seen Milan place a much greater emphasis on play during the transition with The Rossonerri discovering they need not dominate possession to create chances.
Milan have retained the majority of possession in just 3 out of 9 games under the Portuguese manager; interestingly, the three represent Milan’s worst performances since the managerial switch – a loss to Dinamo Zagreb, a draw with Cagliari, and a fortunate 3-2 victory against Parma in which they played poorly and relied on two stoppage-time goals to take all 3 points.
It has been suggested that this could be the key to unlocking Milan with Inzaghi coming under fire from Inter fans for his failure to adequately adapt as Inter drew 1-1 with their city rivals.
That said, this would represent an atypical change in the tactical setup of Ranieri’s Roma who generally prefer to retain the ball where possible.
Their system generally consists of slow build-up play, aiming to create overloads out-wide as their wingbacks push forward, albeit with caution, as opposed to the likes of Atalanta and Inter whose wingbacks take a much more gung-ho approach.
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🏁 AC Milan v Roma Ref Watch
- Referee: Marco Piccinini
Average Cards (Y / R) | 3.88 / 0.00 |
Fouls Given | 24.50 |
Penalties | 0.38 |
📺 How to Watch AC Milan v Roma in the Coppa Italia
📅 When is AC Milan v Roma? / Wednesday, 5 February 2025, 20:00
🏟 Where is AC Milan v Roma? / San Siro (Milan)
📺 What TV Channel is AC Milan v Roma on? / Premier Sports 1
🟨 …And who is the referee for AC Milan v Roma / Marco Piccinini 🇮🇹
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* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.
* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.
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