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Aston Villa v Crystal Palace 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Aston Villa v Crystal Palace 4/1 Bet Builder Tips, Longshot Predictions & Cheat Sheet

Friday 29 August, 20254 min read
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Andy Robson

Andy Robson is the most popular betting tipster in the UK. With a combined following in excess of 1 million people across his social media channels, Andy has built a loyal audience by consistently providing quality betting content for over nine years. He is the founder of Andy’s Bet Club, which he launched in 2019.

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Aston Villa search for their first win of the season against a Crystal Palace side that had to contest a Conference League qualifier during the week. 

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Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Best Bet Builder Bets
  • Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
  • Premier League
  • 19:00
4 Selections @ 5.31

Over 1.5 Crystal Palace Cards

It’s not surprising that Villa topped the Premier League ranks for most yellow cards drawn last season seeing as they also topped the foul won rankings as I covered in the Guehi section.

Palace were shown two yellow cards in this fixture last season and received three cautions in both of the other head to head meetings at Selhurst Park and Wembley. Palace picked up 74 yellow cards across their 38 Premier League games last season (1.94 per game).

Palace have also been shown 3+ cards in both of their Premier League matches so far this season. They also covered this line in their Conference League qualifier during the week.

Over 1.5 Aston Villa Goals

Aston Villa have had an underwhelming start to the season but I think they could finally click here against a Palace side that is bound to be fatigued following their trip to Norway during the week.

Aston Villa scored two goals in this fixture last season as the sides played out a 2-2 draw. Villa were incredibly strong in front of their home fans last year, losing just one of their 19 home games - Liverpool were the only other side to lose just one of their home games last season.

Villa netted 34 goals across these games (1.78 per game), which is an encouraging record when also considering the wider circumstances surrounding the game. Not only will Palace be fatigued, but they will be facing their first proper test on the road without Eberechi Eze. I think his loss will take some getting used to, and I back Villa to make the most of that transition and brush off their sluggish start to the season.

Jean Phillipe Mateta to have 1+ Shots on Target

Mateta is yet to score in the Premier League this season but he has had five shots across his opening two games of the season with three of these attempts finding the target.

Mateta enjoyed playing against Aston Villa last season, he had a shot on target in two of the three games the sides contested last year with the Frenchman getting on the scoresheet in Palace’s 4-1 win over Villa at Selhurst Park.

Mateta scored 14 goals in the Premier League last season which marks the second season in which Mateta has reached double digits for goals in the English top flight. He had 33 shots on target across his 33 starts in the Premier League last season (1.12 per 90).

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Marc Guehi to Commit 1+ Fouls

Guehi committed a foul in Palace’s opening game of the Premier League season away against Chelsea. He’ll be regularly tested here by an Aston Villa side that won more fouls than any other team in the Premier League last season (13.3 per game).

Palace committed 19 fouls in their 4-1 win over Villa at Selhurst Park with Guehi committing a foul on that occasion. Guehi also committed a foul in the 2-2 draw between the sides at Villa Park last season in a game which saw Crystal Palace commit 11 fouls.

Aston Villa have won 11 fouls in both of their Premier League games so far this season against Newcastle and Brentford. In both games, both centre backs committed a foul as they struggled to deal with the dynamism of the Villa frontline.

Interestingly, John McGinn has been playing on the right for Villa in the early stages of the season. It hasn’t been that effective so Emery may move away from this, but this would pit McGinn directly up against Guehi who operates as the left centre back in a back three for Palace.

McGinn averaged 2.78 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League last season and was fouled twice in Villa’s 1-0 defeat to Brentford last time out.

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Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Best Longshot Bets
  • Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
  • Premier League
  • 19:00
3 Selections @ 13.57

Ollie Watkins to Score Anytime

Watkins had five shots in this fixture last season and scored with one of his two efforts that found the target. He’s been quite isolated in the early parts of the season, but that’s more to do with Villa as a whole rather than a drop off in his individual performance.

Watkins is still a real handful, even though he is yet to find the back of the net; he drew fouls from both Burn and Schar in the opening game of the season at Villa Park, which would suggest that he’s still making the same runs. Watkins’ movement is what sets him apart from other strikers in this league and why Emery has been able to develop him. If he continues to make these runs, he will get chances.

Watkins scored 16 goals in the Premier League last season, having netted 19 in the season prior, so he is one of the top-performing strikers in the Premier League over the last few seasons and can replicate his performance against Palace from last campaign.

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Maxence Lacroix to be Shown a Card

The Palace back three are amongst the most settled backlines in the Premier League. Glasner has consistently gone with a trio of Richards, Lacroix and Guehi which has proven to be a really tough trio to crack this calendar year.

Lacroix is the most aggressive of the three which is quite interesting seeing as he usually plays as the central centre back in Palace’s system. He picked up five yellow cards in the Premier League last season and has already received his first caution of this campaign which came last time out against Nottingham Forest.

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Over 3.5 Crystal Palace Corners

It’s no secret that Palace are a very effective side from corners. 31% of the Eagles’ goals in the Premier League last season came from set pieces with Guehi, Lacroix and Richards all acting as real threats from these situations.

Palace also led the Premier League for the most goals scored from corners last season (11) which shows just how much Oliver Glasner’s side rely on these situations. This could be even more obvious in the absence of Eberechi Eze leaving Palace with little creativity in phases of open play.

Villa dominated the corner count in all three head to head meetings between the sides last season but I expect Palace to lean on this avenue slightly more this time around in the absence of a real creative spark in the side.

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📂 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Cheat Sheet

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📈 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Form & Tactics

The mood is a bit sour around Villa Park at the moment. Unai Emery’s side drew their opening game of the season against Newcastle before falling to a 1-0 defeat at the Gtech Community Stadium against Brentford. The most worrying aspect of Villa’s performances so far in the Premier League is how toothless they’ve looked in forward areas.

The starting sides that Unai Emery has gone with so far this season really lack any pace which is why Villa have struggled to find momentum in forward areas. This is a tad confusing seeing as Emery has both Malen and new signing Guessand on the bench to inject some energy into Villa’s attack but is yet to fully trust either of those players in a starting role.

Morgan Rogers has also looked a bit deflated in the opening two games of the season which is a big concern for Villa as the Young Premier League Player of the Year is often their source of creativity and impetus. What Villa can lean on here is their incredibly strong record at Villa Park over the last year or so. Aston Villa won 11 of their 17 games at Villa Park last season, only losing one of these matches, Liverpool were the only other side in the league to lose just one of their home games last season.

Crystal Palace just about edged their way past Fredrikstad to qualify for the Conference League with their 0-0 draw in Norway during the week being enough to secure Oliver Glasner’s side safe passage into a European competition for the first time in their recent history.

I’ll be watching Palace closely here to see where their fitness levels are following that European game. They don’t have the deepest squad, especially in attacking areas which could make Premier League assignments after a European gameweek an awkward task.

Funnily enough, this was what happened to Villa last season. They only managed to win one of their games in the Premier League following an away game in Europe.

Palace’s main advantage here is that they overcame Aston Villa in two of the three head-to-head meetings between the sides last season. Those victories came at Selhurst Park with the sides contesting a 2-2 draw in the clash at Villa Park.


🏁 Ref Watch

Stuart Atwell:

Stuart Atwell brandished seven yellow cards in Everton’s 2-0 win over Brighton, which is his only appointment of the Premier League this season. 


📊 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Key Stats

  • Villa lost just one of their 19 home games in the Premier League last season.

  • Villa are yet to score in the Premier League this season, drawing blanks against Newcastle and Brentford.

  • Villa are likely to be without Boubakar Kamara for this game who is a crucial player for Emery’s system.

  • Crystal Palace avoided defeat in all three head to head clashes with Aston Villa last season, scoring 2+ goals in all three of these games.

  • Crystal Palace contested a Conference League qualifier in Norway during the week so they will be a little fatigued heading into this one as their squad hasn’t really had to cope with the demands of European football before.

  • Crystal Palace have the best defensive away record of any side in the Premier League this calendar year.


Football Predictions at Andy's Bet Club

Andy's Bet Club is packed full of Expert Football Tips. We also have an easy-to-use Bet Builder Stats tool to help you conduct your own research. Look out for our Premier League Predictions, including gameweekly Premier League Acca Tips this season.

These Aston Villa v Crystal Palace Betting Stats provide further insight. We’ve also got Bet Builders for Liverpool v Arsenal and Brighton v Man City as well as our Sunday Acca, and Quick Previews for Dundee v Dundee United and Rayo Vallecano v Barcelona.

We also track the best offers, such as the Paddy Power Sign Up Offer and bet365 Sign Up Offer. There's a list of the latest New Bookmaker Offers here.

For additional value, check out our bet365 6 Scores Challenge Tips and our Paddy Power Beat The Drop Predictions.


* I recommend waiting for confirmed team line-ups before placing any bets.

* All odds displayed correct at the time of publishing.


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